Here’s my take on the latest Acusensus FY26 guidance released to market yesterday.

Acusensus were very bullish with their wording on their procurement pipeline, especially with it featuring at the start of their guidance. I know this doesn’t guarantee outcomes, but the state’s seeking federal funding for distracted driving solutions is a good outcome for the industry. Could be interesting if other market players significantly reduce their costs to take market share from Acusensus.

NSW have extended their contract by another 6 + 6 months with Acusensus until their market process for Mobile Cameras goes to tender again. This means another 6-12 months of revenue generated from assets that have been fully depreciated. This tender however poses a risk of around 10% of their revenue falling away altogether if they aren’t the winning bidder.

The NZ rollout was completed on schedule and is already providing revenue that is exceeding their initial forecasts. This will be a big contribution to revenue now that the upfront expenses have been borne.

While a bit wordy, Acusensus confirmed that the WA media coverage is more about the enforcement decisions made (policy) rather than a challenge on the reliability of the solution. This outcome aligns with my previous post on the matter

While it was bedded down near the bottom, I think the biggest piece of news released to their market was the R&D Outcomes. Unsurprisingly both trials are being done with Transport NSW, who have the budget to throw around and test new ideas:

• Foresite is currently a loss leading initiative that is starting to gain traction and generating trials and revenue. The commencement of their first UK employee in May is a sign that this opportunity could be viable.
• Bi-directional enforcement trial. Should this trial go well and results are as intended, a bi-directional solution would significantly increase the revenue generation opportunity for Acusensus, as it effectively doubles the number of lanes that they providing a solution for. I will be watching this with interest.
• Fixed Red light enforcement – The trial outcomes for these cameras could have massive consequences of the pecking order of enforcement in Australia if Acusensus can demonstrate a capable enforcement solution.

If Acusensus can execute well with these R&D opportunities, this would position them as the best of breed business across all categories and becomes an even more compelling investment opportunity.

The Mobile Point to Point trial has gone a bit quiet recently and doesn’t make it into the latest update,  however this could change once Austroads have released their proposed standards on point to point enforcement later this year. I also drove past the construction sites in SA a couple of weeks, and the cameras should hopefully be installed by the end of the calendar year.

All in all, while the market didn’t believe that this was a cracker of a result, I feel like this is another demonstration of their capability and market leading offering. I am still super bullish with this opportunity and added to my position IRL position yesterday with the price weakness. Contemplating adding more if the price softens again to the $1.2 to $1.3 range.

A bit late to the party, but in early Dec the SA Government announced information about the rollout of new MPDC across South Australia.

https://www.dit.sa.gov.au/news/articles/2025/december/more-detection-cameras-to-catch-drivers-red-handed

I have highlighted a few key items below which may be pertinent to Acusensus.

There is no mention of Acusensus in the release, or this lates round of cameras in the latest capital raise information released by Acusensus (see excerpt below)

Why do I think that these new cameras are likely to be awarded to Acusensus in the future?

-       Governments would typically need to announce a market process when they are purchasing new materials. After a quick search of the SA government Forward Procurement Plan and tenders page, I can only see that they are out to market to replace 15 Jenoptik speed/red light cameras. It would be unlikely that a new market process could be run between now and the required delivery timeframe.

-       Initially, SA went out to market with a proposal to buy 7 Mobile Phone Detection Cameras. They then expanded this by another 10 cameras at a later date. From my count, 13 cameras have already been deployed across SA across 5 locations, with 4 cameras to still be rolled out in the future.

-       The 8 Jan 2024 announcement from Acusensus confirming the contract award mentioned that there will be a staged rollout in South Australia (see excerpt below)

-       It would be very bizarre if the remaining four cameras funded under this budget announcement aren’t operated by Acusensus.

If Acusensus is the likely operator of the new cameras in SA, why has nothing been announced to date?

-       As the remaining cameras are being built on new gantries, DIT would have had to complete due diligence investigations and design processes before confirming any potential camera locations for Stage 2.

-       While there has been a formal announcement by the SA Government, it is my take that Acusensus have not officially disclosed anything to the market, as they have not signed any contractual/variation to officially increase the number of cameras they operate in SA.

-       My gut feel is that something like that will likely come out early next year (especially if they are to make the mid 2026 rollout date)

If awarded to Acusensus, I would expect that ongoing revenue from SA will increase to around $1m per annum in July, and further increase to around $1.4-1.6m per annum once phase 3 is rolled. Not huge in comparison to the NZ deal, but would still help them to nudge closer to generating a positive NPAT.

This is by no way a guarantee that any new cameras in SA will be awarded to Acusensus, as my hypothesis is based on publicly available information to date.

DISL: one of my largest holdings IRL and on SM.