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Last edited one year ago
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Performance (43m)
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#Investor roadshow
stale
Added one year ago

This is super annoying. Jerko flat out denied on multiple occasions that they would need to do a capital raise, so I will be extremely disappointed if (and it seems highly likely) they will. Jerko spoke about numerous times that they would secure a partner to develop the expansion. Makes me think they could not secure anyone or agree to terms with interested parties and now looking to shareholders.


#operation update
stale
Added 2 years ago

The company has announced 90% total development works are now complete. Company is on track for its target of first production in Q3 CY.

See here

#meeting
stale
Added 2 years ago

Thanks for a great meeting yesterday with AGY CEO, Jerko Zuvela @Strawman.

My notes and takeaways from the meeting are as follows:-

  • Jerko seems like he genuinely wants to create wealth for shareholders and is playing a long game. He isnt worried about short term market sentiment says the company is pursuing its growth strategies regardless
  • AGY is not a mining company it is a chemical processing company.
  • I felt as though he had a great knowledge of the industry dynamics.
  • He thinks reports released recently about oversupply are not realistic. He is still seeing demand, especially from second tier manufacturers. These second tier manufacturers cant get supply because all the larger companies are locking up all the supply. 
  • The chemical processing technology is extremely difficult and in the future they may look to license their chemical processing technology to other lithium companies.
  • Doesn't want to sell the business. He thinks there is a lot of value creation left and doesn't want to give it away.
  • OPEX costs should be under $7500/t. This would be the very upper limit of the costs in the next couple of years.
  • He thinks supply side response could take approx. 5 years before supply side will catch up to bring price down meaningfully. When supply catches up to demand he feels prices will stabilize around $20000/t - $25000/t.
  • Sort of counterintuitive, but he feels eventually that the price needs to moderate or else people will try and develop tech where lithium isnt needed. At the moment there is no genuine battery tech alternative in the market.
  • Getting funding for new lithium is still extremely hard, especially for a company who hasn't produced before. You cant hedge or store materials, so standard mining funding doesnt work. AGY hasnt signed offtake agreements because they want the right longterm partner. who will help with financing the expansion and possibly an equity stake. The partner they go with, will be a long term agreement and mutually beneficial. The right partner will support through cycles.
  • Partner agreements may coincide with 10000t/pa regulatory approval and 2000t/pa production commencement. Potentially over the next few months (3-4months). Hoping to have minimal dilution (if any) with the right agreements.
  • To take to operations from 2000t/pa to 10000t/pa they estimated in 2018 approx $141m. He thinks it will cost about 25-30% more than that now (~$175m).
  • His main hat and focus is AGY. Ragusa and Discovery Alaska are also in the lithium space. He feels his work with AGY is not impacted. Kind of sounded like AGY could possibly take them over in future (or might be reading too much into that)
  • He has a team who deals with the Argentinian govt. He is unsure why 10000t/pa hasn't been approved yet, but has had nothing but positive feedback from his team so far. And its actually the provinces who issue permits not the federal govt. He assures the team has a great relationship with the govt and province. The govt wants foreign investment to get these mines running for jobs, royalties and taxes, so no incentive for them to reject.
  • Crazy Argentinian inflation rate is a big issue for them because they have to pay for wages and materials in local currency however they cant have the money in local bank accounts with pesos because it gets destroyed with inflation. So its all in Australian banks in AUD and sent on an as required basis. The local equipment they lock it in advance to avoid cost blowouts. Wages and energy is the highest inflationary impact ongoing to AGY. Supply chains have been problematic and getting labor. This has slowed construction. But despite challenges, they should come in under budget.
  • They dont do a lot of marketing because they want to maximize putting their money back into the company. He doesnt want to use capital raised funds from investors for that. The money raised from investors they want to use to advance the business for longterm value creation. He feels when the company is in production marketing wont be needed as the operational success is where the longterm value creation is. With operational success it brings credibility. Argosy wants to be known as a company that delivers and is transparent as possible.
#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 2 years ago

CEO, Jerko Zuvela Q&A. Some interesting points about the different path Argosy have taken to many other prospective lithium miners. He makes the distinction that Argosy are more a lithium processing company.

See here

#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 2 years ago

An interesting interview with the Argosys CEO Jerko Zuvela discussing AGY strategy. Production is due to begin shortly at their 2000tpa processing plant. Sounds like there will be some material announcements in the first half with permits for their planned expansion 10000tpa processing plant and securing capex funding for this, as well as some advanced offtake agreement discussions.

https://youtu.be/JCj7YpThZJ0