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#Rincon 2,000tpa Li2CO3 Operati
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Added one year ago

2,000tpa operation commissioning and ramp-up phase works progressing, with full ramp-up toward steady-state production operations targeted from end Q2-CY2023

Current production trials produced over 10 tonnes of battery quality lithium carbonate product (average 99.79% purity) from batch operations during commissioning and ramp-up phase works

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Carbonate Market:

a quick look at the chart

Lithium Carbonate 99%Min China Spot Chart - Investing.com AU

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#Investor roadshow
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Added one year ago

This is super annoying. Jerko flat out denied on multiple occasions that they would need to do a capital raise, so I will be extremely disappointed if (and it seems highly likely) they will. Jerko spoke about numerous times that they would secure a partner to develop the expansion. Makes me think they could not secure anyone or agree to terms with interested parties and now looking to shareholders.


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#2,000tpa Li2CO3 Operations Upd
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Added one year ago

We look forward to achieving many more significant milestones in 2023 as we transform into a cashflow generator, capitalising on lucrative lithium carbonate prices via upcoming product sales revenues, leading to a significant near-term growth phase for the Company.”


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#Macquarie WA Forum
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Added 2 years ago

Strong cash position, to be boosted by sales at record lithium prices from 2,000tpa production operations Building a team of experienced and proven lithium sector operators in Argentina, combined with key executive appointments in Australia Becoming only the second commercial lithium carbonate producer on ASX Clear growth and development pathway with strong strategic interest to fund 10,000tpa expansion operation

slides:  Investor Presentation - Macquarie WA Forum 29/11/22 08:14

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Valuation of $0.610
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Added 2 years ago

1/11/2022 announcement: Rincon

Almost ready- production 2924-02592166-6A1119893 (markitdigital.com)

24th Oct 2022 Broker Analysis below:

promise 40% upside for the share price = 85cps / 60cps

Market Data 52-Week Range (A$) : 0.22 - 0.61

Market Cap (A$M) : 750.3

Shares Out. (M) : 1,389.4

Enterprise Value (A$M) : 727

NAV /Shr (A$) : 0.85

Net Cash (A$M) : 23.1

When? ; Argosy move to the status of producer in Fy2022, with 2ktpa battery grade lithium


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#HY Accounts 2022
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Added 2 years ago

The 2,000tpa lithium carbonate operation construction works in-progress, with first commercial production of battery quality Li2CO3 product targeted during Q4-CY2022;

No Dividend yet,

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#Quarterly
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Added 2 years ago
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#Ricon mining
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Added 2 years ago

Announcement this morning.

Drilling recommencing at Rincon.

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#operation update
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Added 2 years ago

The company has announced 90% total development works are now complete. Company is on track for its target of first production in Q3 CY.

See here

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#meeting
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Added 2 years ago

Thanks for a great meeting yesterday with AGY CEO, Jerko Zuvela @Strawman.

My notes and takeaways from the meeting are as follows:-

  • Jerko seems like he genuinely wants to create wealth for shareholders and is playing a long game. He isnt worried about short term market sentiment says the company is pursuing its growth strategies regardless
  • AGY is not a mining company it is a chemical processing company.
  • I felt as though he had a great knowledge of the industry dynamics.
  • He thinks reports released recently about oversupply are not realistic. He is still seeing demand, especially from second tier manufacturers. These second tier manufacturers cant get supply because all the larger companies are locking up all the supply. 
  • The chemical processing technology is extremely difficult and in the future they may look to license their chemical processing technology to other lithium companies.
  • Doesn't want to sell the business. He thinks there is a lot of value creation left and doesn't want to give it away.
  • OPEX costs should be under $7500/t. This would be the very upper limit of the costs in the next couple of years.
  • He thinks supply side response could take approx. 5 years before supply side will catch up to bring price down meaningfully. When supply catches up to demand he feels prices will stabilize around $20000/t - $25000/t.
  • Sort of counterintuitive, but he feels eventually that the price needs to moderate or else people will try and develop tech where lithium isnt needed. At the moment there is no genuine battery tech alternative in the market.
  • Getting funding for new lithium is still extremely hard, especially for a company who hasn't produced before. You cant hedge or store materials, so standard mining funding doesnt work. AGY hasnt signed offtake agreements because they want the right longterm partner. who will help with financing the expansion and possibly an equity stake. The partner they go with, will be a long term agreement and mutually beneficial. The right partner will support through cycles.
  • Partner agreements may coincide with 10000t/pa regulatory approval and 2000t/pa production commencement. Potentially over the next few months (3-4months). Hoping to have minimal dilution (if any) with the right agreements.
  • To take to operations from 2000t/pa to 10000t/pa they estimated in 2018 approx $141m. He thinks it will cost about 25-30% more than that now (~$175m).
  • His main hat and focus is AGY. Ragusa and Discovery Alaska are also in the lithium space. He feels his work with AGY is not impacted. Kind of sounded like AGY could possibly take them over in future (or might be reading too much into that)
  • He has a team who deals with the Argentinian govt. He is unsure why 10000t/pa hasn't been approved yet, but has had nothing but positive feedback from his team so far. And its actually the provinces who issue permits not the federal govt. He assures the team has a great relationship with the govt and province. The govt wants foreign investment to get these mines running for jobs, royalties and taxes, so no incentive for them to reject.
  • Crazy Argentinian inflation rate is a big issue for them because they have to pay for wages and materials in local currency however they cant have the money in local bank accounts with pesos because it gets destroyed with inflation. So its all in Australian banks in AUD and sent on an as required basis. The local equipment they lock it in advance to avoid cost blowouts. Wages and energy is the highest inflationary impact ongoing to AGY. Supply chains have been problematic and getting labor. This has slowed construction. But despite challenges, they should come in under budget.
  • They dont do a lot of marketing because they want to maximize putting their money back into the company. He doesnt want to use capital raised funds from investors for that. The money raised from investors they want to use to advance the business for longterm value creation. He feels when the company is in production marketing wont be needed as the operational success is where the longterm value creation is. With operational success it brings credibility. Argosy wants to be known as a company that delivers and is transparent as possible.
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#AGM Presentation
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Added 2 years ago

Rincon - Initial 2,000 tpa Li2CO3 production From Q3-CY2022

  • Release Date: 31/05/22 15:08
  • Summary: 2022 AGM Presentation
  • Price Sensitive: Yes


Then 90% ownership at 10,000tpa ..Then 12,000tpa

Some slides below:

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For the carbon neutral theory:

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#AGY Lithium
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Added 2 years ago

Interview with CEO Jerko Zuvela

Not much new news but a good introduction and summary of companies strategy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCj7YpThZJ0&t=574s

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#Announcement Price sensative
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Added 2 years ago

Lithium Carbonate at depth of 102.5m to 300m below ground level ..507,000T to 724,000T

see how AGY trades today..


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Valuation of $0.350
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Added 3 years ago

At current level 47K Aud lithium carbonate price less 12K cost- my estimates ( company estimates only 5K) will give 35K gross profit. At 2,000 ton per annum will give 70 million profit. The company aims to start processing next FY. If i say their first full production year is FY24. And based on the above NPAT is approx $45m aud. At a rough market PE of 15x thats $675m market cap. Currently they have 1,267m shares outstanding. If i factor in a cap raise with 15% dilution, thats 1,457m shares. Discount back 15% to FY22 price target of 35c.

Still risks company is still under 50% complete of their processing facility, licensing, supply deal risks and geopolitical risks. However i believe it trades at a discount to other lithium stocks.

Upside is if lithium continues to push higher. The company is also looking to expand to 12,000 ton per annum, so it could trade at higher multiples factoring in the expansion. Assuming price and assumptions the same. Gross Profit will be $420 m at that point. However, im trying to be conservative with the speculative nature and all the risks.

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Valuation of $0.110
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Added 3 years ago
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