Straws are discrete research notes that relate to a particular aspect of the company. Grouped under #hashtags, they are ranked by votes.
A good Straw offers a clear and concise perspective on the company and its prospects.
Please visit the forums tab for general discussion.
2,000tpa operation commissioning and ramp-up phase works progressing, with full ramp-up toward steady-state production operations targeted from end Q2-CY2023
Current production trials produced over 10 tonnes of battery quality lithium carbonate product (average 99.79% purity) from batch operations during commissioning and ramp-up phase works
Carbonate Market:
a quick look at the chart
Lithium Carbonate 99%Min China Spot Chart - Investing.com AU
This is super annoying. Jerko flat out denied on multiple occasions that they would need to do a capital raise, so I will be extremely disappointed if (and it seems highly likely) they will. Jerko spoke about numerous times that they would secure a partner to develop the expansion. Makes me think they could not secure anyone or agree to terms with interested parties and now looking to shareholders.
We look forward to achieving many more significant milestones in 2023 as we transform into a cashflow generator, capitalising on lucrative lithium carbonate prices via upcoming product sales revenues, leading to a significant near-term growth phase for the Company.”
Strong cash position, to be boosted by sales at record lithium prices from 2,000tpa production operations Building a team of experienced and proven lithium sector operators in Argentina, combined with key executive appointments in Australia Becoming only the second commercial lithium carbonate producer on ASX Clear growth and development pathway with strong strategic interest to fund 10,000tpa expansion operation
slides: Investor Presentation - Macquarie WA Forum 29/11/22 08:14
1/11/2022 announcement: Rincon
Almost ready- production 2924-02592166-6A1119893 (markitdigital.com)
24th Oct 2022 Broker Analysis below:
promise 40% upside for the share price = 85cps / 60cps
Market Data 52-Week Range (A$) : 0.22 - 0.61
Market Cap (A$M) : 750.3
Shares Out. (M) : 1,389.4
Enterprise Value (A$M) : 727
NAV /Shr (A$) : 0.85
Net Cash (A$M) : 23.1
When? ; Argosy move to the status of producer in Fy2022, with 2ktpa battery grade lithium
The 2,000tpa lithium carbonate operation construction works in-progress, with first commercial production of battery quality Li2CO3 product targeted during Q4-CY2022;
No Dividend yet,
Announcement this morning.
Drilling recommencing at Rincon.
The company has announced 90% total development works are now complete. Company is on track for its target of first production in Q3 CY.
See here
Thanks for a great meeting yesterday with AGY CEO, Jerko Zuvela @Strawman.
My notes and takeaways from the meeting are as follows:-
Rincon - Initial 2,000 tpa Li2CO3 production From Q3-CY2022
Then 90% ownership at 10,000tpa ..Then 12,000tpa
Some slides below:
For the carbon neutral theory:
Interview with CEO Jerko Zuvela
Not much new news but a good introduction and summary of companies strategy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCj7YpThZJ0&t=574s
Lithium Carbonate at depth of 102.5m to 300m below ground level ..507,000T to 724,000T
see how AGY trades today..
At current level 47K Aud lithium carbonate price less 12K cost- my estimates ( company estimates only 5K) will give 35K gross profit. At 2,000 ton per annum will give 70 million profit. The company aims to start processing next FY. If i say their first full production year is FY24. And based on the above NPAT is approx $45m aud. At a rough market PE of 15x thats $675m market cap. Currently they have 1,267m shares outstanding. If i factor in a cap raise with 15% dilution, thats 1,457m shares. Discount back 15% to FY22 price target of 35c.
Still risks company is still under 50% complete of their processing facility, licensing, supply deal risks and geopolitical risks. However i believe it trades at a discount to other lithium stocks.
Upside is if lithium continues to push higher. The company is also looking to expand to 12,000 ton per annum, so it could trade at higher multiples factoring in the expansion. Assuming price and assumptions the same. Gross Profit will be $420 m at that point. However, im trying to be conservative with the speculative nature and all the risks.