20-Apr-19: Firstly, let's have a look at the limitations (and pitfalls) of TA:
Technicals: June 05 2018: ARB Looking Bullish
That article, by Michael Gable of Fairmont Equities, published on FNArena.com in early June last year, suggested that the rise in the ARB SP at that time was sustainable, based on technical indicators. MG was right, for the following 2 weeks. Then ARB peaked at $23.50 on June 21st, and proceeded to spend the next six months falling, bottoming at $14.88 (some 37% lower) on January 21st (3 month's ago).
ARB Chart That may default to a 6-month chart. Click on "12 Months" to see what I'm talking about.
Since then, the ARB share price has been rising nicely, closing on Thursday at $17.79. Once again, that rise looks sustainable, but... one bad report (fundamentals) will cause them to turn on a dime. TA that ignores fundamental analysis is seriously flawed. That said, Michael Gable combines both fundamental and technical analysis, and he still got that ARB call wrong back in June last year.
Based on their 12-month chart and their past ability to trend very well for many months in a row (like 6 months heading south east during the second half of last year, and 4 months of north east trajectory so far this year), it looks like a good time to jump back into ARB. They are still growing and they have superb management who are focussed on shareholder returns, a rock-solid balance sheet, and an excellent industry reputation.
Letter to Shareholders, by Roger Brown, ARB Chairman, 27 Feb 2019
In 2008 the SUV segment accounted for 19.2% of all new car sales in Australia – now it’s 43%. There’s been a significant shift in buyer tastes as SUVs and dual-cab utes become the dominant force, while passenger car sales slump to less than one third of the overall market for the first time (source: http://www.motoring.com.au/australian-new-car-sales-drop-in-2018-116332/ January 4th 2019).
ARB is named after the initials of its founder Anthony (Tony) Ronald Brown. His brother Andrew Brown is ARB's current MD, and owns almost 7.9m shares. Their other brother, Roger Brown, is ARB's current Chairman, and also owns 7.9m ARB shares. Here's a little history:
http://www.whichcar.com.au/gear/arb-history-and-timeline
http://www.arb.com.au/about/
http://www.arb.com.au/about/investor-relations/
Disclosure: I often hold ARB shares, and I do currently hold some. They are a good longer term holding. They pay regular dividends - which are a little bigger every year, and they also have a history of paying larger special dividends about once every five years. ARB Dividend History
They are about due to pay another one - their last big special dividend was in 2014.
Of course, past performance and history is not a reliable indicator of future performance - or dividend payment intentions.
