G'day @PabloEskyBruh, the below is a cheeky account of my emotional journey over the last few hours.. This silly recount is just meant to challenge your thinking.. it's not meant to be offensive... 

To start... Earlier today one of my SM notifications said, Pablo has placed at order for AVR.. ok I thought to myself, I wonder what that's about, this is why you joined SM!!

Turns out AVR = Anteris.. I've never heard of them.. What do they do?? 

Oh, WOW a heart valve company.. I know F'all about heart surgery other than my mother had a double bypass and I'm a big drinker from outback Australia with an obvious family history of heart issues.. this is exactly what I need to invest in!! But it's so far outside my circle of competence... I'll need to do some research... let's have a look... EXCITING TIMES!!

I head straight to SimplyWallStreet and put in the ticker code and as always, I scroll past the price data before I see it.. I know I'm prone to being led astray by price anchoring bias... if a company is up 100% in the last year, I can't help but think I've missed the boat already... so, I don't look...

Straight away I hit the Health data tab (Dad joke intended).. let's look at a graph of the history of the balance sheet.. oh wow.. next to no debt.. beautiful... but looks like they just completed a massive capital raise.. so, OK that could make sense.. but wait.. the balance sheet history... looks.. weird...

Ok let's head to the history of the P&L to see if we can make sense of... what?? What the actual F...udge??

$2.5m in Revenue, $81m in losses.. wait..... what??

What am I actually looking at here??

I literally turn to my partner and relayed the story so far and say to her.. I bet the CEO gets paid a huge amount.. let's go to the management data tab.. oh.. oh...

THAT IS special.. Last year this guy got paid more than the revenue collected.. he took home $3mil when the company only generated $2.5m in sales.. this company is a front to fund this dude's lifestyle...

let's look at other managem........ wait what... the "Independent" Chairman got paid $520k??? On $2.5m in sales…. the NON-EXECUTIVE Chairman, who just provides oversight, took home ~1 in 5 dollars of the company's sales as his compensation?? Shut the.... Ffffff....front door.

Ok let's take a quick glance at ownership... this will be good... WOW.. I'm broken!! unless the CEO owns shares through an offshore company, he is LITERALLY broadcasting to the world that he's prepared to put three fifths of fuck all on the line for this company.. he practically has no shares.. 

With the very few data points I've seen so far, I'm now convinced this is a shitshow... 

But... you're an Accountant Johnny.. let's look at recent audited reports... I download the June 2024 report and head straight to Changes in Equity... WTF?? To date this company has thrown THREE HUNDRED AND TWENTY TWO MILLION DOLLARS... OUT THE WINDOW?? wow.. wow wow wow..

OK... Calm down!! Go back to Strawman and see what else Pablo has said about this historically.. after all Johnny, you know F'all about the product... other than there is a fair chance, that one day, you'll be a customer!!

I head to the company website on SM.. Oh.. it's UNDERVALUED… by ~840%... HMMM K... and Pablo has posted about a THOUSAND times on this thing.. scrolling, scrolling, scrolling, flicking through various conversations... I get far enough back to read someone else's original post. At this point I'm looking for anyone to prove my initial conclusion wrong.. @callawood posted a YouTube link 4 years ago.. an interview with the CEO... great, let's check that out...

Open your mind Johnny... you're going to need their product one day... 

OK, I have never heard of the interviewer, Andrew Scott, but that's not his fault, between London and Singapore you haven't lived in Australia for 23 years.. You're out of touch, so listen hard...

OK GREAT.. he's solving the problem of younger patients (me) NOT needing to have their chest cracked open.. that sounds really good, I'm all ears... 

Wait... now he's trying to pass off the "Impressive advisory board of Drs" qualifications as validation for this company's science?? Hmmmm a panel of experts wouldn't put a 40 year career on the line for... what was it Charlie Munger said about incentives??

Hmmm now I feel icky... My mind flicks back to my initial conclusion...

If I was singing for my (very large) supper, I'd probably find something equally validating to say.. 

Hmm back to YouTube we go, surely he's going for redemption... "so what does that mean for your shareholders" Andrew asks? We have a $5Bil product... says our friendly CEO..

........ that many years later still hasn't generated enough sales to cover the CEO's outsized incentives...

 The end

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Sorry Pablo... at this point... I'm done.. I could ask ChatGPT for a Porter's 5 forces and some validation of addressable market, do some real research, but I don't want to waste poor Chatty's time.. 

From here, I'll no doubt miss the next 10-bags of this company's uplift and when I finally need their product, I'll regret not investing... 'back in 2025' when the price was.. whatever it is today...

No offence intended.. 

JM

PS, watch this company shoot the lights out from here…

PPS, yes I know I’m going to cop flack for whatever I recommend next.