Had an interesting meeting yesterday where this came up - not a company I know much about at all but there were some strong views. Not sure if this is common knowledge or not - nor have i quantified it by actually looking at CTD.

From what I understand most of their most lucrative contracts and profits has come from government contracts. Think the repatriation flights from Israel currently (coordinating Qatar/Qantas/Emirates for Australian citizens) and the ongoing work in transporting and housing refugees to the UK - Fallout looms for Corporate Travel over Bibby Stockholm UK asylum barge contract (afr.com)

Essentially a reason they did so well during COVID and avoided a cap raise (unlike FLT and WEB) was not the narrative they did essential business travel - it was all the COVID repatriation flights that they must make massive margins on (though not disclosed for obvious reasons).

In short the narrative for this stock I think has been wrong for years - the government repatriation and other special flights are a big driver of profits - not typical business travel. This is not what they told the market of course.

Explains the empty locations and discrepancy in the financials form what they say they do that was in the short report years ago etc. As long as you think these government contracts continue then profit should continue but don't think the big driver is business travel.