Some references on Green Steel projects in France which is well worth checking from Energy Transitions

Unlocking the first wave of investments in Green Steel

Calix Zesty is not in the paper but there is good information on where Zesty sits against more advanced green steel projects.

NEGATIVE NPV for all projects!

The paper also include the privately listed H2 Green Steel project in Sweden which is currently well advanced to produce Green Steel in 2025. In addition, they are doing studies to produce Green Steel in North America and Latin America. H2 Green Steel has had a fair wack of money chucked at it already (in the billions)

Anyway, from the above, 436 EUR is about 715 AUD give or take which sits in the midpoint of Zesty pilot (between 600 and 800 AUD)

Another issue with ZESTY is it is too early in the cycle and won't be able to catch up to these european projects like H2 Green Steel. By the time studies are complete, H2 Green Steel will already be ahead and it will be difficult to justify switching from them and spending money on ZESTY.

Hence it is better to go with the "first past the post" than the one that is still being developed despite the cost advantages.

In addition, I'm also worried Calix in general is just rushing in to projects (such as the PLS JV, Heirloom and Leilac Cement) without doing DFS or PFS along with showing NPV, Payback and IRRs like what is done above. Bear in mind I can't find a DFS or PFS from H2 Green Steel but I guess the France Green Steel project is a good reference point. Ir probably isn't surprising as most of the board members don't have a solid finance or corporate background.

Interesting the share price has rallied? Something not right there... At 300m, it is now trading 11x revenue (although the last grant might skew this lower assuming the revenue from IER stays level).

[not held]

Haven't really been following Calix closely so this will be brief

Posted on that HC forum as well but thought I'd give a bit more detail

No half year consensus but still full year consensus.

Will be interesting to see if Calix can match the FY24 consensus

Actual results below:

Revenues grew to $16.3m, up 28% on the same period last year.

• Products & service revenues up 41% to $12.2m.

• Grants & other income of $4.1m was in line with prior period.

On the transcript they were asked about Cemex license agreement for Leilac and replied stating that they could not give any guidance but will announce something when a decision has been made.

In addition, Hodgson still thinks Leilac is more competitive than the others such as Svante reiterating that Calix has a lower energy penalty than the others while ignoring other aspects such as Capex, implementation etc..Perhaps need to do a bit of digging here.

[not held]

Been more than a year since the Cemex update

I'm guessing the licence agreement has probably fallen through.

As an FYI, CG had a valuation of $8 for Leilac alone from the 8-mar-23 note

On a more positive note, PLS appears to be progressing with the Midstream processing

However we still do not have details on the royalty payable to Calix. But since Lithium spot prices have fallen, the contribution won't be much.

Also if we strip out a large part of Leilac valuation and 100% of the batteries (since there has been little progress here), then the valuation by @Bradbury is probably on the money. (10.51-8.50-0.44=1.57)

Another interesting bit of info - if you do a search on carbon capture cement you will find lots of other companies doing their own implementations.

Although I do like the CEO, the results miss and delays to Leilac is a big concern

Delay to Leilac-2. But Calix hoping will be ready FY25. This delay is a miss as I thought this will be ready around FY24 but I am still trying to find reference on that statement.

Stripping out all misc grants, I believe Calix is trading around 33x revenue. Adding on the recent misses, Calix might be overvalued

Will need to reassess and sell if I find better opportunities.

[held]

FID (Final investment Decision) for Midstream demonstration plant with Pilbara Minerals

One month late but better than never..

No extra additional funding needed from Calix - funded through existing cash.

Project timeframes, 2026 go live date

[held]

Quick summary on financials released 21-feb

Revenues up largely driven by grants. Strip grants out to get sales and sales revenues are slightly down.

Margins on sales up 30%

Gross profit slightly down

(Held)

One thing Calix is good at doing is getting into projects that attract funding from the government.

Innovate UK has awarded a 5m pound grant for the development zero emissions shipping project in the UK lead by Windship using a combination of wind and diesel with CCS (Carbon Capture Solution) using lime produced by an onshore Leilac reactor

[held]

Received 19.4m gov grant for Solar Methanol project. Marked as not price sensitive but shares still up on open

[Held]

Didn't read the fine print on the SPP

Apparently it is either 4.55 or 2.5% of the 5 day VWAP before the 10th November

So I'm getting a figure of 4.25 for the 5 day VWAP plugging numbers from an online source.

But it is hard to predict what a share price would do during this time.

Didn't subscribe for more shares but I did buy some on the market around 4.20 recently.

[held]

Adding on @Summer12

"The Australian Government has announced that it will be implementing a new Carbon Capture 

Technologies program, through which it will provide $141.1m over ten years as part of a realignment of investment in carbon capture technologies. Expected to open in 2023, the Government has stated:

“Program investments and related policy development will prioritise technology development for hard-to-abate industrial sectors (such as cement manufacturing)”

Overreaction on the setback and a gift for anyone who hasn't done the spp

Added today at the lows below spp price

Not financial advice and maybe risky for those here relying on financial numbers valuing cxl.

[Held]

Calix completes institutional placement and was well oversubscribed. Hence the share price turnaround rally from the lows.

Existing shareholders get to participate in the SPP at $4.55 which is quite a discount.

Given most of Calix business is in Europe (Heildelberg Leilac) and is in recession from bad energy policy, I'm surprised by the demand for investment in Calix.

However, I'm not sure if I'll take the SPP. I've been burned a number of times already by capital raisings.

Having said that I did take part in the $2 share placement which was massively oversubscribed and I only got a small amount in the end.

[held]

Seems Regal can't make up it's mind whether to hold CXL.

On 11/5 they were holding less than 5% then 13/5 they popped back to 5%.

Have to always be on guard whenever Regal is around especially if you bought at over $5+

I believe Regal got into CXL at around $3 or maybe slightly more. That would be the bottom end when I would back up the truck.

Held (and rather disappointed that Regal is on the register playing games with the share price)

Project LEILAC-2 FID confirmed

Calix up $1 on the news or about 10%

Highlights:

•    The Calix lead LEILAC-2 project has passed its Financial Investment Decision (FID) to build a plant capable of capturing 20% of a cement plant’s CO2 at very low cost, which will be integrated into HeidelbergCement’s operational plant in Hannover, Germany.
•    Supported by the EU’s Horizon 2020 scheme, the Calix design is for a new type of capture technology, designed as a retrofit, scalable module, that aims to use alternative and renewable fuels.
•    This FID milestone has been achieved despite the complications arising from the global pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine. We are now proceeding with detailed design, purchasing long-lead items, and expecting to commence construction in 2023. There remain key project risk flag points prior to purchasing major components, given the market situation.
•    The LEILAC approach is designed to enable a green and just transition to a low-carbon future with the objective of strengthening local industry and maximise the use of local resources – while addressing climate change.
•    This first-of-a-kind modular retrofit, aiming to address a cement plant’s unavoidable emissions, is aiming to ultimately separate CO2 for a cost of €20 to 25 per tonne of CO2.
•    The LEILAC-2 plant is located at Hannover, providing a potential testing and backbone for future use and offshore storage options, and an excellent opportunity for decarbonising central European industry.
•    The LEILAC-2 Project Consortium includes HeidelbergCement, Calix, CEMEX, Cimpor, Engie, IKN, Lhoist, and other global research and governmental partners.

   Critical global climate change targets have been committed to for 2050, with the IPCC assessment reports emphasising the need to accelerate the deployment of all CO2 mitigation technologies, and it is hoped that LEILAC can play a key role.

Just amazing what this company has achieved. I think the price has gone ahead of itself but there could be other factors at play such as the inclusion into ASX300

Link here

https://www.calix.global/co2-mitigation-focus-area/leilac-2-passes-financial-investment-decision-fid-milestone/

A good intro and explanation on the Calciner tech from interview with Phil Hodgson

https://www.eurekareport.com.au/investment-news/calix-eyes-battery-market-with-kiln-technology/149543

Disc: Held IRL since Feb 2021. Not really a buyer at current price.