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Last edited one year ago
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Performance (59m)
15.1% pa
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218
Straws
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#Risks
stale
Added one year ago

In case no one knew, CXO share price has fallen dramatically

In summary it is still generating cash,

f7ad234c9e9837438ad523f4c9810b0ebef3fd.png

50% recovery rates. Higher cash costs.

Production guidance reduced.

I think it will be hard to bridge the gap on Lithium supply if mines like this underperform. Simple solution to that is buy something that has a bigger deposit than Core.

Only thing to look forward to is exploration upside at BP33 but that is an underground operation.

Tempting to buy here but this is still at a market cap of 1.1 billion.


#Industry/competitors
stale
Added one year ago

Interesting bubble chart. CXO in top right corner

Source: https://twitter.com/_H00PZ

baa11d4b0604f51c47f051b5641b8df3bf1f92.png

#Bear Case
stale
Last edited 2 years ago

Couple of non-exec sells on market

22/12/22 Malcolm McComas Sell +800,000 $1.05 ($837,581) On-market trade

22/12/22 Gregory English Sell +300,000 $1.04 ($311,280) On-market trade

Source: Market index


#Management
stale
Added 2 years ago

Attempted downramp failed when citing CEO resignation although this was known for some time. Amazing price action today, but not sure if I'll buy even at these levels.

9acfeea5db200f2f3e57f956bd6002924e05b7.png

#History
stale
Last edited 2 years ago

Adding further to my last straw.

I believe I bought this for the Strawman Classic competition years ago in October 2020

The share price did nothing during the competition and I thought nothing about it. But shortly after the comp ended, the price bagged 200%+.

The original thesis for buying CXO was simple and I used some concepts borrowed from the Core Econ online text that was used for our economics classes.

# Economic Rent? Yes. The resource had lots of good infrastructure including being close to port. So would be quite easy to develop.

# Competitive advantage? Yes. Again due to infrastructure and being close to port and a major city. Also had an MOU which turned into an offtake agreement (I forget who but it was some chinese company that time). Plus a growing resource as well.

Only missing element was economies of scale as they were only starting up and had nothing built yet. Plus lithium needs lots of chemical processing.

These are a few important points to think about when buying any resource stock other than looking at what the mineral deposit is.

I see the flywheel is still strong on Core Lithium (up again today versus every other mining company).

But I'll make no secret and I'll be selling some here to get some cash back and rebalance my holdings.

#Bear Case
stale
Added 2 years ago

Have this on strawman but can't believe i don't hold irl when i saw this at 30c. Congrats on anyone that held and ignored the noise.

Guess I'm still hurting on my experience with Kidman resources.