EGL results released on the 20th Aug has provided me with concern and optimism.

Concern.

As @Slideup , @mikebrisy , @Bear77 eluded to there are question marks on the transparency of the cost overruns in Singapore and the notion that they are one off. Adding the acquisitions undertaken over Jason Dixon's reign and questions of competency are fair to ask.

I would also add the renumeration and focus on EBITDA as the financial metric in which is featured heavily throughout the rem report / annual report and it puts into question how shareholders are being prioritised ?

A good current comparison to EGL is Stealth Group under the leadership of Mike Arnold . The transparency and alignment from Chairman to Mike and the leadership team is evident and consistent with the reports produced. The focus on profitability is consistent and thus the EPS and FCF have improved markedly. Its little wonder the share price performance has 5-6x over the past 18months.

Based on what EGL released and guided for i am holding my position with a positive frame of mind.

Optimism looking forward.

Guidance by Jason for FY26 is EBITDA to come in at 15-20% higher than 2025 or in a range of 12.76m to 13.32m. Allowing for a 6% increase in SOI to 396m this would translate to a EPS of between 1.38c - 1.44c or 12%-17% increase.

Scenario 1.

Examining the FY25 results they were mixed but what stood out was the H2 improvement versus H1.

H1 saw revenue of 54.2m and a EBITDA of 3.9m or 7.19%

H2 saw revenue of 57.7m or 6.4% higher however EBITDA was 7.2m or 12.47%.

If i reading the commentary correctly this is a 73.5% uplift in H2 EBITDA compared with H1.

If this was simply replicated for the FY 2026 assuming a 10% lift in revenue to $123m EBITDA would be 15.33m or 38% higher than 2025.

Allowing for a 6% increase in SOI to 396m (which has been the average increase over the past 3 years) EPS would increase 1.66c or 32%.

If these results were to flow through the current SP reflecting 21x 2025 EPS is attractive. A 21 PE multiple on a 1.66c EPS = 35-36c SP.

Scenario 2.

Looking divisionally on how EGL 2025 results unfolded and what we can be reasonably be expected for 2026 based on the guidance and trend underway this scenario also dwarfs the EBITDA guidance Jason Dixon provided.

EGL Air - revenue to remain flat at 19.4m for FY26 and EBITDA to come in at 9% = $1.74m.

EGL Energy - revenue to climb 15% to 56.5m and EBITDA margins to equal 2025 @ 13.7% = $7.74m

EGL Baltic - revenue to rise 10% to 38.6m and EBITDA to rise to 15% from 10.8% in FY25 reflecting the cost overruns in Singapore . EBITDA to come in at $5.79m

EGL waste - revenue to rise 20% on 2025 to 4.16m and EBITDA margins to hold at 45% = $1.87m

Group results would see revenue rise to $118.66m or 6% (which is modest) and EBITDA rise to $17.14m or 54%. This reflects the operating leverage obtained in scaling up and anticipated sound executing on any implementation work .

(this is optimistic but not out of the realm of realistic)

Translating this to NPAT at past three years margins equates to 7.37m and EPS of 1.86c which is a 51% increase.

At a 21 PE = 39c.

Disc : Held IRL & SM