@Curly,

Yes, HUM does have a high Debt/Equity ratio (297%) which needs to be considered in the company risks. At the time of writing I was relying on Simply Wall Street data. I have since checked this against the Company Financials (page 12, extract attached) Both match up. On the positive side the debt/equity is improving!

Disc: hold shares RL

Full ASX Announcement

Some very pleasing results in the 4Q21 business update this morning:

•  hummgroup 4Q21 transaction volume of $774.9m, up 57.3% on pcp
• Record quarterly BNPL segment transaction volume of $304.9m in 4Q21, up 68.7% on pcp
• Cards (Australia and New Zealand) 4Q21 transaction volume of $287.5m, up 44.3% on pcp with spend continuing to return across key categories
• Commercial and Leasing transaction volume in 4Q21 of $182.4m, up 62.2% on pcp
• Total hummgroup customers of 2.7m as at 30 June 2021, up 19.7% on pcp
• Continuing improvement in net loss (gross write-offs net of recoveries) of $30.2m in 4Q21, down 20.3% on pcp
• 1,362 new merchants integrated across Australia and New Zealand in 4Q21 including strong growth in key verticals of health, luxury retail, home improvement, and automotive
• Based on unaudited accounts, Cash Net Profit After Tax of $68.4m, up 121.1% on pcp1

Disc: hold shares IRL

Westpac NZ teams up with hummgroup to offer bundll - Full ASX Announcement

• bundll, the first BNPL anywhere product globally, will be the exclusive BNPL product promoted to New Zealanders by Westpac NZ
• Westpac NZ, through its subsidiary Red Bird Ventures Limited, will have an option to invest in bundll New Zealand via an option agreement
• First agreement under hummgroup’s global partnership with Mastercard® to enable banks to enter the fast growing BNPL sector

The new partnership is the first contract under hummgroup’s strategic global agreement with Mastercard and will see bundll available to all New Zealanders, with preferential benefits offered to Westpac NZ customers.

hummgroup Chief Executive Officer Rebecca James said:
“We are delighted to be partnering with Westpac NZ to bring bundll to New Zealanders. BNPL is one of the fastest growing segments of the financial industry, and with this new arrangement Westpac NZ will reap the benefits of having an innovative and customer driven BNPL offering without having to build the product themselves.
“This is our first deal under our strategic agreement with Mastercard and we are actively in discussions with a number of banks, loyalty programs and financial institutions about similar potential partnerships around the globe.
“bundll is a product that is built with partners in mind, so for organisations looking to enter the customer-first BNPL market, it’s the perfect solution.”
Using the Mastercard network, bundll allows customers to BNPL wherever they like, with no minimum spend – the first of its kind in New Zealand. The product combines purchases into easy to manage instalments in a convenient digital app. In 3Q21, Australian bundll users made more than one million transactions.

Westpac NZ Head of Digital Ventures, Lewis Billinghurst, said:
“As a leader in the New Zealand banking sector, we’re always looking for new and innovative ways to help people manage their finances and spend with confidence. Our customers are thinking differently about cash and credit: they want more options, flexibility and transparency. hummgroup’s truly innovative product bundll will help them achieve this.’’
In November 2020, hummgroup and Mastercard signed a strategic global agreement to work together to take bundll into new geographies on a partnership basis.

Richard Wormald, Division President, Mastercard Australasia said:
“Mastercard works with a lot of issuers around the globe who are looking to enter the fast- growing BNPL market. As is evident from this joint venture, a scheme-based solution is ideal for banks who do not want the effort and risks associated with a closed loop model.
“With bundll, hummgroup have developed a unique solution that easily allows banks, loyalty programs or larger retailers to offer a solution to their customers, without needing to undertake any IT development. We are excited about the potential this has globally.”

bundll will be available to customers in New Zealand from August 2021.

Disc: Held in RL portfolio

@Gummidge, I hold shares in HUM for the reasons you pointed out and HUM is good value if the pivot to BNPL goes to plan. HUM is targeting niche clients with larger transactions including Dental & Health. BNPL is a highly competitive sector and HUM comes with some significant risks and weaknesses. @Bear pointed out 10 years of poor performance by Flexigroup. ROE has shrunk from 22% in 2012 to 5% last year. 

Stengths:

• Forecast Growth 24.8% (see chart)
• PE 15.9
• PEG 0.6 (cheap)

Key Risks:

• Debt $2.21 billion
• Equity $744 million
• Debt/Equity 297% (debt is not well covered by operating cash flow)

Weaknesses:

• Future ROE = 8.9% (Low for a growth company, would  prefer 20%,  and this is also proped up by borrowed funds)

Valuation:

HUM shareholders could be well rewarded if the BNPL growth continues, if interest rates stay low and if the debt can be serviced over the next 3 years. There's a lot of 'ifs' there and valuation carries the same level of risk!

• Forecast E (2023) = $82 million*
• Outstanding shares = 394 million
• E/S 2023 = 82/394 = 20c/share
• PE 15
• Value (2023) = PE x E (2023) = 15 x 20c = $3.00

*Simply Wall Street data (consensus 3 analysts)

DIsc: Hold shares