Consensus community valuation
$1.590
Average Intrinsic Value
67.4%
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#Financials
Last edited a week ago

@Curly,

Yes, HUM does have a high Debt/Equity ratio (297%) which needs to be considered in the company risks. At the time of writing I was relying on Simply Wall Street data. I have since checked this against the Company Financials (page 12, extract attached) Both match up. On the positive side the debt/equity is improving!

Disc: hold shares RL

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#Financials
Added a week ago

@Rick 

That sounds like a lot of debt ($2.3B on CMC), but is that offset by the $2.4B in receivables? I could do with some help deciphering this stuff, but Total Current Assets of $2.6B vs. Current Liabilities of $1.4B sounds really good to me. Who can put all of that into a valuation?

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#Financials
Added a week ago

Humm Group Shares Delivers An Exceptional 121% Increase In NPAT! Highlights

What Did Humm Group Shares Announce?

From this mornings announcement 19th July 2021. HUMM Group (ASX:HUM) reported some excellent results with the group reporting significant volume increases in the business at 57.3% on transaction volumes. Their BuyNowPayLater segment increasing at the fastest rate of 68.7%.

The companies strategy seems to be working, enabling merchants and customers to be onboarded faster with the New Humm Tap Product.

ASX:HUM pointed investors towards the record volumes in their BNPL segment and the significant growth experienced by their commercial and leasing business. Customer numbers were also up 19.7% to 2.7million.

“hummgroup’s continuing momentum is reflected in all segments performing strongly in 4Q21 to achieve record volumes across all products of $775m. Quarterly volume growth of 57% is a clear indicator of the benefits of hummgroup’s diversified portfolio. We are confident in carrying this volume momentum into FY22 as our products continue to evolve and mature, we execute on our international expansion, and we deliver on our partnership strategy.

CEO Rebecca James on this mornings annoucement

Key Metrics Provided in the update were as follows

  • hummgroup 4Q21 transaction volume of $774.9m, up 57.3% on pcp
  • Record quarterly BNPL segment transaction volume of $304.9m in 4Q21, up 68.7% on pcp
  • Cards (Australia and New Zealand) 4Q21 transaction volume of $287.5m, up 44.3% on pcp with spend continuing to return across key categories
  • Commercial and Leasing transaction volume in 4Q21 of $182.4m, up 62.2% on pcp
  • Total hummgroup customers of 2.7m as at 30 June 2021, up 19.7% on pcp
  • Continuing improvement in net loss (gross write-offs net of recoveries) of $30.2m in 4Q21, down 20.3% on pcp
  • 1,362 new merchants integrated across Australia and New Zealand in 4Q21 including strong growth in key verticals of health, luxury retail, home improvement, and automotive
  • Based on unaudited accounts, Cash Net Profit After Tax of $68.4m, up 121.1% on pcp

The Prophet BNPL Index:

HummGroup has been one of the best performers to date on the Prophet BNPL index, down only ~10% for the year compared to an average of (-16%) for the broader benchmark.

Recent Humm Stock Developments

Expansion To The UK

On the 30th of June HummGroup announced to the market that they were looking to expand their product to the United Kingdom. This will give customers the opportunity to shop in-store and online and pay over instalments. Repayments consist of interest-free payment options from 10 weeks to 60 months. The strategy being employed in the UK seems to be very similar to their approach in the Australian Market.

Humm/TAPP Instore Feature

Humm/TAPP instore feature, on the 3rd June, the group announced that the company was launching the HummTap Feature allowing users to tap a digital card at any merchant in Australia and repay this in the same way typical Humm Purchases are made. This greatly expands the addressable market size of the product and will allow the company to have a much further reach with consumers.

TAPP removes the need for merchants and Humm to invest tens of thousands of dollars and several months integrating into in-store point of sale systems. With immediate access to transacting Humm customers, TAPP makes it easier and more attractive for merchants to include Humm as an in-store payment option. Our customers now have a seamless and intuitive in-store payment method at every Humm merchant, in a familiar digital wallet experience.

CEO Rebecca James

Full Article If Interested: https://prophet-invest.com/humm-group-shares-delivers-an-exceptional-result

 

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#4Q21 Business update
Last edited a week ago

Full ASX Announcement

Some very pleasing results in the 4Q21 business update this morning:

  •  hummgroup 4Q21 transaction volume of $774.9m, up 57.3% on pcp
  • Record quarterly BNPL segment transaction volume of $304.9m in 4Q21, up 68.7% on pcp
  • Cards (Australia and New Zealand) 4Q21 transaction volume of $287.5m, up 44.3% on pcp with spend continuing to return across key categories
  • Commercial and Leasing transaction volume in 4Q21 of $182.4m, up 62.2% on pcp
  • Total hummgroup customers of 2.7m as at 30 June 2021, up 19.7% on pcp
  • Continuing improvement in net loss (gross write-offs net of recoveries) of $30.2m in 4Q21, down 20.3% on pcp
  • 1,362 new merchants integrated across Australia and New Zealand in 4Q21 including strong growth in key verticals of health, luxury retail, home improvement, and automotive
  • Based on unaudited accounts, Cash Net Profit After Tax of $68.4m, up 121.1% on pcp1

Disc: hold shares IRL

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#ASX Announcements
Last edited 2 weeks ago

Westpac NZ teams up with hummgroup to offer bundll - Full ASX Announcement

  • bundll, the first BNPL anywhere product globally, will be the exclusive BNPL product promoted to New Zealanders by Westpac NZ
  • Westpac NZ, through its subsidiary Red Bird Ventures Limited, will have an option to invest in bundll New Zealand via an option agreement
  • First agreement under hummgroup’s global partnership with Mastercard® to enable banks to enter the fast growing BNPL sector

The new partnership is the first contract under hummgroup’s strategic global agreement with Mastercard and will see bundll available to all New Zealanders, with preferential benefits offered to Westpac NZ customers.

hummgroup Chief Executive Officer Rebecca James said:
“We are delighted to be partnering with Westpac NZ to bring bundll to New Zealanders. BNPL is one of the fastest growing segments of the financial industry, and with this new arrangement Westpac NZ will reap the benefits of having an innovative and customer driven BNPL offering without having to build the product themselves.
“This is our first deal under our strategic agreement with Mastercard and we are actively in discussions with a number of banks, loyalty programs and financial institutions about similar potential partnerships around the globe.
“bundll is a product that is built with partners in mind, so for organisations looking to enter the customer-first BNPL market, it’s the perfect solution.”
Using the Mastercard network, bundll allows customers to BNPL wherever they like, with no minimum spend – the first of its kind in New Zealand. The product combines purchases into easy to manage instalments in a convenient digital app. In 3Q21, Australian bundll users made more than one million transactions.

Westpac NZ Head of Digital Ventures, Lewis Billinghurst, said:
“As a leader in the New Zealand banking sector, we’re always looking for new and innovative ways to help people manage their finances and spend with confidence. Our customers are thinking differently about cash and credit: they want more options, flexibility and transparency. hummgroup’s truly innovative product bundll will help them achieve this.’’
In November 2020, hummgroup and Mastercard signed a strategic global agreement to work together to take bundll into new geographies on a partnership basis.

Richard Wormald, Division President, Mastercard Australasia said:
“Mastercard works with a lot of issuers around the globe who are looking to enter the fast- growing BNPL market. As is evident from this joint venture, a scheme-based solution is ideal for banks who do not want the effort and risks associated with a closed loop model.
“With bundll, hummgroup have developed a unique solution that easily allows banks, loyalty programs or larger retailers to offer a solution to their customers, without needing to undertake any IT development. We are excited about the potential this has globally.”

bundll will be available to customers in New Zealand from August 2021.

Disc: Held in RL portfolio

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#Risks
Last edited 2 months ago

@Gummidge, I hold shares in HUM for the reasons you pointed out and HUM is good value if the pivot to BNPL goes to plan. HUM is targeting niche clients with larger transactions including Dental & Health. BNPL is a highly competitive sector and HUM comes with some significant risks and weaknesses. @Bear pointed out 10 years of poor performance by Flexigroup. ROE has shrunk from 22% in 2012 to 5% last year. 

Stengths:

  • Forecast Growth 24.8% (see chart)
  • PE 15.9
  • PEG 0.6 (cheap)

Key Risks:

  • Debt $2.21 billion
  • Equity $744 million
  • Debt/Equity 297% (debt is not well covered by operating cash flow)

Weaknesses:

  • Future ROE = 8.9% (Low for a growth company, would  prefer 20%,  and this is also proped up by borrowed funds)

Valuation:

HUM shareholders could be well rewarded if the BNPL growth continues, if interest rates stay low and if the debt can be serviced over the next 3 years. There's a lot of 'ifs' there and valuation carries the same level of risk!

  • Forecast E (2023) = $82 million*
  • Outstanding shares = 394 million
  • E/S 2023 = 82/394 = 20c/share
  • PE 15
  • Value (2023) = PE x E (2023) = 15 x 20c = $3.00

*Simply Wall Street data (consensus 3 analysts)

DIsc: Hold shares

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#Bear Case
Added 3 months ago

Track Record of Management, when they were called FlexiGroup:

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#Bull Case
Added 3 months ago

What am I missing? A 30 year old company that is growing quickly in the BNPL pace, is profitable, and is paying a dividend at almost 5% on current share price. Directors are buying at current depressed prices, and Macquarie Bank have a buy rating on it. 2.7 million customers (up 40% from last QTR), over 20,000 merchants and roughly 82% repeat business. Average customer balance is $4,000 compared to Afterpay's $150. Currently expanding into Britain and Caanda - what am I missing? 

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#Significant Director Purchases
Added 3 months ago

Two directors purchase on market with Abercrombie purchasing over $1m in shares at $0.92.  He has close to 100m shares already.

Obviously, the directors consider the shares to be undervalued.

DIRECTOR TRANSACTIONS

6 May 21: Muir +29,544 for $28,921 [28,644]

6 May 21: Abercrombie +135,105 for $121,795 [31.80m; 66.68m]

6 May 21: Abercrombie +1m for $920,616 [31.66m; 66.68m]

23 Mar 21: Wylie +495,000 @ $0.98 for $485,397 [27.32m]

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#Bull Case
Last edited 4 months ago

HUM - Wellness Sectore niche for BNPL

Today's announcement was quite an interesting read with respects to the strategy of HUM positioning itself as preferred bnpl for larger value transactions such as Dental, Audiology, Cosmetic and Mobility.  It was mentioned the value of these opportunities is often more than retail purchases of discretionary items.

The other neat thing, is how HUM has been integrated into the Dental Quoting sofware as exclusive finance provider.

Worth a read IMO

 

 

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#Director Purchase
Added 4 months ago

Significant director purchase of +$485,3971.  Director already has a significant holding of over 27m shares.

Wylie +495,000 @ $0.98 for $485,397 [27.32m]

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#Product Offerings
Added 5 months ago

HUM – road testing Bundll almost two weeks in

 Disclaimer: this update is not intended to be advice nor promotion of the product offering which is Bundll, but rather, and entirely for the purpose of evaluating the product for its potential take up in the market place as an Investor in HUM.  Should you decided to trial or take up the Bundll product you should do so in full consideration of the product features and your own financial circumstances.

So I come to the end of my initial Bundll period (11 days because I joined mid-cycle instead of the normal 7 days) having been able to pretty much use Bundll as a payment option as and whenever I wanted to.  During the trial I have spent a total of $204.99 and have an end of period balance of $156.02.

Spending was able to include:

Tap n Go using G-Pay

·       Grocery items at both Coles and Woolworth

·       Petrol  fill up

·       Pharmacy items at a Chemist

·       Non-grocery items at Target and Kmart stores

Online card payments

·       Download and monthly subscription to an app on Google Play store

Funding PayPal purchases

·       Registered and renewed a domain name or two

·       Split a bill with someone

So about the only thing I haven’t been able to do is withdraw cash out of an ATM (of course it’s not designed to be that though) during the course of my normal daily spending habits.

Going forward after this initial Bundll spending period, I will fall into the normal cycle where my spending Bundll period will be wrapped up every 7 days, and I will have a further 14 days following that to choose one of the payment courses of action, whilst my next 7 day spending Bundll commences.

I have landed on the view that Bundll is more than a BNPL offering, it is more like a digital wallet which offers not just the ability to Tap n Go or quote a card number online, but also serves as a spending diary over the course of my Bundll period (which is how I summarised the above spending) and in addition to that functionality the app also offers a Personal Budgeting section where my spending can be tracked against pre-determined budget levels per spending category if I choose to monitor that.

As noted above , I spent just over $200 but have a balance $156, I was easily able to make same day payments against my Bundll purchases quite simply by initiating them entirely from within the app itself.

So I am now at the end of this period with the $156 balance and a remaining limit of $843 to spend going forward ($1000 is the default approved Bundll limit upon joining), but having to choose which option to take as a BNPL action over the next 14 day payment period:

·       Pay out in full

·       Elect to Snooze the payment with a minimal $20 payment towards the balance for a $2.50 snooze fee (or free Snooze if you have one)

·       Superbundll into 6 fortnightly payments

For the purpose of the trial I am going to elect to pay down a portion and then Snooze the remainder.  The way that I envisage a customer using a Snooze would be  towards the end of their 14 day pay period, effectively extending the Later aspects of the BNPL payment.  Although I do have a few ‘free snoozes’ in my Snooze Pot, for the purpose of the trial I am going to pay the Snooze fee to see how the payment of the fee and minimum payment is processed.

With the exception of the $2.50 Snooze fee (waived if you use free Snoozes), nothing yet has cost me any more than the value of my purchases themselves, so akin to an interest free period if you like.

I am interested to see what notifications and reminders are prompted to me by the Bundll app during the payment and snooze period, from a responsible lender and customer centric offering perspective.

 

So with a HUM Investor’s hat back on:

·       A $2.50 snooze fee for an up to $1000 balance is at least a 0.25% fee on balance per 14 days of 7 days of spending, in my case against $156 that same $2.50 would equate to a 1.6% fee

·       It certainly is convenient and has the flexibility of being able to be used anywhere so the Total Addressable Market is of course significant

·       Bundll is a point of difference offering to simply splitting BNPL purchases into equal instalments

·       Most shop staff have not heard of Bundll, at the same time they wouldn’t have even known I was using Bundll had I not sounded them out as to their familiarity.

·       I have not seen a single instance of advertising for Bundll on any platform

 

It does seem like an opportunity for HUM to make inroads into market share, and I would be expecting that the profile of the product offering is increased, rather than simply relying upon social network apps sharing between friends with the incentivised ‘earn a free Snooze’

 

The Bundll website is here www.bundll.com for further information

 

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##Risks #Bear Case
Added 5 months ago

No doubt that HUM is undervalued on its current metrics. Using a 6.1% risk free rate and next year EPS figure of $0.158 my valuation comes in at $2.59. I took a recent position only to be stopped out quickly on the recent large decline. I've tried in the past to catch falling knives like this one and have learnt that regardless of how good a company seems, until the market trend swings positive, you can continue the slide downwards a long way - so I'll be holding off until there is a turn around in the trend.

They definately need to do a lot more work on their marketing and I think they have missed the boat with the Australia BNPL sector as others in this space have such a dominance at the moment and I can't see people making the effort to try yet another BNPL provider if they're happy already with Afterpay or ZIP as an example. I'm only guessing that perhaps this is why the market doesn't love this stock or perhaps as many have said before - the issues is that they are actually profitable!

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#Bull Case
Last edited 5 months ago

HUM - the Bundll BNPL offerring is very seamless

I decided to 'road test' the simplicity of becoming a customer of HUM's bnpl offering named Bundll  (ie Bundle all your small purchases for pay later)

Initially I was skeptical, but I started to really became impressed when at the conclusion of signing up on my mobile phone (a 5 minute effort) my new Bundll bnpl (a digital credit card backed by Mastercard) was instantly available and was also added to my payment options in my Google G-Pay app.

So stop an think about that for a second, here's a bnpl provider tapping into a customer's already 'tap n go' spending habits.

So yes, I continued my trial by dropping down the local shops for some milk and bread etc from Woolies and a separate purchase a few minutes later from Coles for a fruit juice, in total having spent a little over $30.

The paying side of things was seamless having to simply select my Bundll 'card' on G-Pay, and importantly the merchant (the two retailers in this example) didn't need to offer me any special payment options, nor were they paying any merchant fees to partake in Bundll as a bnpl, as I simply used their everyday standard tap n go via my phone and their existing in place payment technology.

So back to Bundll, I now have two small purchases in my current 2 week spending cycle, with the app telling me exactly what I spent where and when these fall due (the current bundll period), and how much of my instantly approved $1000 limit I have left to draw down.

This was all very easy and as I've said seamless.

The app also offers the option to 'snooze' my pedning bundled payment, normally for a $5 fee, but I have accumulated a couple of free snoozes. I believe I can be credited snoozes via referring friends etc etc

There's a good write up and marketing video for Bundll here, it's quite catchy and targeted towards millenials.

If HUM can do the marketing and promotion well, getting Bundll out to the masses in that target audience, this should be a bit of a no brainer and a very convenient 'go to' for the customer when they need to either do that splurge or choose to postpone a payment, or are simply a little low on cash in their pay cycle.

I think I'll actually be keeping my Bundll card in my digital G-Pay wallet beyond this little 'rubber hitting the road' research effort.

The main takeaway for me is actually on the merchant side, as they do not have to be signed up to accept Bundll payments as the whole idea is premised upon it being a digital MasterCard in that context.

So for HUM, if it can figure out and also engage with merchants to educate them into becoming proxy Bundll sales people as in "have you got Bundll it only takes 5 minutes to sign up for" that might assist coming from things at the that side too.

Interesting

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#Bull Case
Added 5 months ago

HUM - CEO interview on Ausbiz

On the same day as the share price dipped, despite the profitable half being reported, CEO Rebecca James featured on Ausbiz here explaining the business and the growth strategy

I recently revisited the HUMM product offerings in the investor presentation and inturn this interview, so maybe others would appreciate being directed to it also.

A pretty upbeat explanation and unwaivering committment to the expansion plans.

Rebecca tackles the regulation narrative too that lingers the BNPL space

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#Business Model/Strategy
Added 5 months ago

HUM - Investor Update FY21H1 - expansion plans

Just reading through the Investor Update announcement

Beside being a profitable BNPL player, the presentation comes accross quite well:

  • no debt on balance sheet
  • BNPL App Downloads metrics on the rise
  • reasonable list of impressive merchants
  • catchy mobile app designs per product offering
  • current monopoly in Ireland
  • Expansion Plans into the the UK and Canada being actioned during H2

I've seen worse in the BNPL space that's for sure

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