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26-Aug-2024: MinRes' corporate governance has always been a little questionable, as it often is when it's one guy runnning the company as he sees fit - similar to Andrew ("Twiggy") Forrest at FMG, which is why the senior management at Fortescue don't seem to last long. Chis Ellison's MinRes (MIN) does not have those same issues with heaps of senior turnover, but this AFR article this morning is worth noting:
Chris Ellison’s daughter earns millions for MinRes shipping work
by Neil Chenoweth, Senior writer (AFR), Aug 26, 2024 – 5.00am
The daughter of Mineral Resources chief executive Chris Ellison has earned millions of dollars in undisclosed fees after her company was given preferential treatment to help ship the group’s iron ore exports, according to governance advisory group Ownership Matters.
An analysis of port records shows that Ship Agency Services, founded by Kristy-Lee Craker in 2011, has made as much as $10 million through hundreds of ships that have loaded Mineral Resources iron ore since SAS was set up in 2011.
Ship owners have been required since at least 2016 to use Ms Craker’s company when carrying the group’s iron ore exports.
Kristy-Lee Craker, managing director at Ship Agency Services.
Ownership Matters said port records showed that Ship Agency Services “is listed as shipping agent for hundreds of ships loaded with MinRes product that have sailed from the ports of Esperance, Dampier and Port Hedland over multiple financial years as far back as 2016”.
A review of hundreds of cargoes showed that all but a dozen shipments or fewer were handled by Ms Craker’s company.
Shipping agents provide myriad services, from organising documentation to port authorities and shippers to monitoring vessel operations, transport and crew arrangements.
The Ownership Matters report says her firm has chartered more than 1000 ships since it was set up. Industry standard rates for bulk carriers in Australian ports range between $5500 and $10,000 per engagement. Estimates of the fees paid to Ship Agency Services run as high as $10 million.
MinRes confirmed to Ownership Matters that Ship Agency Services was the group’s preferred shipping agent. However, it said payments to the firm did not have to be disclosed as related party transactions, because Ship Agency Services is engaged under contract with, and is paid by, the ship owner.
Mineral Resources said it was common within the industry to nominate a shipping agent. Ownership Matters is not suggesting the arrangements are improper.
Mineral Resources CEO Chris Ellison.
MinRes also uses a marine surveyor company, Propel Marine, set up by Ms Craker in 2018, to perform vessel draft surveys, inspections and marine warranty surveys on ships carrying the group’s iron ore. This leads to the unusual position where safety checks on MinRes ships are the responsibility of the daughter of the CEO.
“These services were performed at arm’s length rates,” a spokesman told Ownership Matters.
“It is common in the commodity industry for industry participants to recommend the use of a preferred ship agency. This enhances efficiency, safety and productivity in the loading or cargoes.
“MinRes has a process in place to ensure its shipping arrangements are in line with the market, and at commercial rates.”
Ownership Matters noted that “unlike BHP, Rio and Fortescue, ship agency at MIN has never been subject to a competitive open tender process.”
SAS also acts as shipping agent for ships owned and operated by Mineral Resources. These direct payments to SAS from MinRes as the shipowner are caught by the related party rules and should be disclosed. A Mineral Resources spokesman said that “direct transactions” between MinRes and SAS over almost 10 years were only “approximately $0.5 million in aggregate”.
In 2023, MinRes reported $428,000 in related party transactions involving SAS for “import/export services”, following $247,000 paid in 2022, but said the figures would be higher in 2024.
“This is due to the critical role played by SAS in facilitating the importation of key items for the Onslow Iron Project,” a spokesman said, an apparent reference to the acquisition of trans-shippers.
Until last year both Propel Marine and Ship Agency Services operated out of offices leased by Mineral Resources from a trust in which Mr Ellison has a 51 per cent interest. A MinRes spokesman told Ownership Matters that SAS paid rent for the offices.
An earlier Ownership Matters report in June raised questions over related party issues when MinRes invested in Wildcat Resources and Kali Metals.
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Source: https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/chris-ellison-s-daughter-earns-millions-for-minres-shipping-work-20240824-p5k51h [Today, 26-Aug-2024]
Disclosure: I am not directly exposed to MIN, FMG, BHP, RIO or any other iron ore companies at this point. I have also stepped aside from direct investing in any lithium companies for the time being. I admire and appreciate what Chris has achieved with MinRes and what Twiggy has achieved with FMG, and I have certainly made money from both companies, however I don't want exposure to either of them at this point in time for a variety of reasons, but underlying commodity exposure is the main one.
05-June-2024: 7:22pm: MinRes-sells-minority-stake-in-Onslow-Iron-Haul-Road.PDF
0:00:00 Introduction
0:01:36 MINs bring the cash
0:04:51 The Onslow iron ore hopefuls
0:17:48 What's going on in uranium
0:31:59 Sheffield start stumbling
0:39:39 Novelis ditch IPO plans
0:44:04 Leaky deals on the ASX
Disclosure: I hold MinRes (MIN) shares.
0:24:50 MinRes - Katana Asset Management's biggest holding - Romano Sala Tenna tells us why [19-Feb-2024]
Disc: I hold MIN (MinRes) both here and in my larger real money portfolios.
23-November-2023: OK, MinRes (MIN) is certainly one of Australia's best mining services companies, and Gaurav Sodhi went as far as to call them "the best mining business on the ASX" in his 14-Dec-2022 article titled "Lithium: The mania and the cure - part 2" for the Intelligent Investor paysite where Gaurav has been their resources analyst since 2009. As well as resources, Gaurav covers telecommunications and power infrastructure. As Gaurav points out, MinRes' unique business model, far-sighted management and exceptional growth prospects have resulted in fantastic long-term returns.
They are also either the largest or one of the largest mining services businesses in the world, specialising in moving and crushing iron ore, they have billions of dollars worth of earthmoving equipment, fixed plant, trains, trucks and port assets, mostly in Western Australia - where most of the iron ore is.
They are also mine owners and operators, with a number of producing iron ore mines and other mining assets that includes two of the best lithium deposits on the planet - Wodgina and Mt Marion - neither currently in production but they will be soon enough. MIN is a company where a PE ratio is a flawed metric because the Earnings do not include the value of assets that haven't produced any revenue and earnings at all in the past year or two - or during whatever historical period you are looking at. These assets, while not currently producing any earnings, have substantial value and should not be overlooked.
On top of that we have MIN buying into various other Australian lithium companies while the lithium price is down and that's obviously for strategic reasons but part of it seems to be to stop Chinese and other overseas companies getting control of too much Australian lithium and other "critical minerals".
On 22-May-2023 the AFR published an interesting article titled, "What are Australia’s ‘critical minerals’ (and why are they critical)?": https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/the-critical-minerals-boom-is-about-geopolitics-not-geology-20230519-p5d9t7
Excerpt:
The wave of new lithium hydroxide processing plants built in WA is slowly reducing China’s dominance of battery grade lithium, but will amount to only 10 per cent of world lithium hydroxide supply by the end of 2024.
It’s a similar story in cobalt; 63 per cent of world supply is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, but it needs to be processed before it is turned into something useful, and China is responsible for 60 per cent of global cobalt refining.
To exacerbate the situation, China also makes about 75 per cent of all lithium-ion batteries and produces about 76 per cent of the world’s silicon metal, a crucial ingredient in solar panels.
As things stand, the world can decarbonise only if China permits it to do so.
--- end of excerpt ---
I'm not sure how Australia have 53% of global lithium production while China have 56%, but I'm guessing it's to do with the Chinese investments into Australian lithium mines, but in any case I believe Chris Ellison at MinRes and Gina Rinehart (Australia's richest woman, on the back of iron ore mining mostly, plus some other investments) both would like to (a) keep control of the best of our remaining Australian lithium assets right here in Australia, and (b) make some money for themselves in the process.
In Chris's case, he'd be making money for himself and other MinRes shareholders. Gina Rinehart's companies are not listed, they're all private family controlled companies, but we CAN invest in MinRes (MIN) and have exposure to Chris Ellison's vision and shareholder value creation.
In the past year or so, there's been a flurry of buying by MIN of blocking stakes in lithium companies like Wildcat Resources (WC8: 19.9% of WC8 is owned by MIN), 13.56% of Azure Minerals (AZS) where Gina Rinehart also owns 18.3%, and 17.4% of Delta Lithium (DLI) where Gina owns another 7%. It is not clear if there are any plans for Chris and Gina to work together with respect to any of these companies towards a mutually beneficial outcome, but it's interesting to view those companies in the context of what Chris and Gina control together between them.
Additionally, Gina and daughter Bianca Rinehart own 19.99% of Liontown Resources (LTR), another lithium company, and MIN have issued Lithium Australia (LIT) a $4.5m convertible note which LTR have begun drawing down recently. According to LIT's 30-Oct-2023 First-drawdown-from-Mineral-Resource's-convertible-note.PDF announcement, "On successful completion of the pilot plant operations and engineering study, MinRes’ convertible note will convert into equity in a new 50:50 joint venture (“JV”) between MinRes and Lithium Australia, which will wholly own the LieNA® technology going forward. The JV plans to license the LieNA® technology to third-parties at a target headline gross product royalty rate of 8%"
Fingers in many pies, but many of them are clearly lithium-related.
This is all while there have been overseas takeover attempts of some of these companies (LTR, AZS) and the lithium price has fallen quite a bit, AND lithium companies represent 5 of the 20 most shorted stocks on the ASX, including the number one most shorted stock, Pilbara Minerals (PLS), currently 18.5% sold short and rising.
Source: https://www.shortman.com.au/ [with some colourful highlighting on the left side added by me.]
MinRes also own 12.87% of Develop Global (DVP), the new miner/mining services hybrid company (just like MIN only a lot smaller) that is being built up currently by Bill Beament, the former driving force behind Northern Star Resources (NST) for all of those years. There are some analysts who believe that Bill B is the natural successor to Chris Ellison at MIN once Chris decides to step back or retire - both Chris and Bill admire each other's accomplishments with what they have done in business and their entrepreneurial mindsets. For that change at the top of MIN to occur however, it is likely that MIN would have to acquire the rest of DVP with Bill's blessing and for Bill to stay on to run the combined company. No guarantees but that's one possible future outcome, and makes sense in the context of MIN owning 12.87% of DVP, being a blocking stake that stops all other suitors from fully acquiring DVP, unless MIN agrees to sell. That blocking stake may hold DVP's SP back a little but doesn't do MIN's any harm. For clarity, Chris Ellison owns around 4.25% of MinRes shares on issue and Bill Beaument owns 18.5% of DVP shares on issue.
In 2006, Ellison and others established Mineral Resources as a merger of three mining services firms – pipeline contractor PIHA, ore-crushing firm Crushing Services International (CSI), and Process Minerals International (PMI). Ellison was a major shareholder in each of the three. Mineral Resources was floated on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) in 2006 at 90 cents per share. By 2022 the company's share price had risen to $71 per share, with Ellison holding around 12 percent of the company. He has since sold down that stake, but still holds 22,471,416 MIN shares, a stake with a current market value (based on MIN's closing SP of $64.72 yesterday) of $1.454 billion. He also owns one of Australia's most expensive homes and has other assets.
The Mosman Park mansion bought for $57.5 million in December 2009, setting an Australian record at the time.
The following is a small excerpt from: https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/recommendations/mineral-resources-takes-a-dive/152981 [Gaurav Sodhi, 10-Oct-2023]
The story of Mineral Resources is now legend. After leaving school at the age of 15, Chris Ellison made a fortune as he founded, then sold, a mining services business to Monadelphous in the 1980’s.
Then a troubled firm, Monadelphous went to the wall and Ellison lost everything. The firm was later revived under new management and is now a blue chip stalwart of WA, but Ellison missed all of that. He used his credit card, reportedly maxed to $10,000, to tie up three small services firms to create Mineral Resources.
The firm listed on the ASX in 2006 at 90c per share. It is now a $12bn colossus, the largest third-party crushing business in the world and, until recently, a stock market darling.
Source: Pilbara Minerals
Lithium meets the cycle
Lithium is a notoriously difficult commodity to analyse. There is no spot market. Sales are made by opaque contracts and prices only disclosed after a lag.
Carbonate and hydroxide prices, which are processed lithium products used to make cathode materials for lithium batteries, require specific offtakes and prices are usually contracted and secretive.
Most miners, however, sell a spodumene concentrate, and prices for the concentrate have diverged from processed carbonate and hydroxide. While carbonate prices have fallen by 80% over the past 12 months, spodumene prices have merely halved.
These intricacies are lost when prices are driven by euphoria and fear.
We have been cautious about lithium. Markets tend to accommodate new demand with new supply in unexpected ways. When the world expected peak oil, shale extraction technologies upended the narrative. When cobalt became hard to access outside Congo, car makers learned how to build without it. Indonesian nickel producers have disrupted nickel supply by learning to process complex laterite ores. We’ve always been skeptical of the higher for longer camp in any commodity because that hasn’t been the path of history.
Lithium, however, is in a unique spot.
Niche gets big
As we have noted in Lithium: the mania and the cure, lithium is moving from a niche commodity to a bulk commodity, a transition that will take time and require oodles of capital. To attract that capital, prices will need to stay above marginal costs for an extended time.
Lithium is out of favour now. Prices rose too far; subsidies in China have played havoc with inventories and new supply is coming. Yet we think there is a good chance that prices remain higher for a while. Only higher prices can incentivise new supply.
Albermarle, one of the world’s largest lithium producers, is valuing spodumene from Liontown, a takeover target, at US$1,600 a tonne. Industry insiders don’t always get it right, but their actions shouldn’t be ignored. Albermarle’s actions suggest new supply, especially low-cost supply, is hard to introduce.
MinRes is currently expanding output from its two hard rock mines (each 50% owned) and should produce about 900,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate within 3 or 4 years, up from about 300,000 tonnes last year.
Costs are expected to fall to between $500-600 a tonne, which leaves plenty of margin even if prices decline further.
Services and iron ore
MinRes is, of course, more than just lithium. The mining services business at the heart of MinRes has raised volumes by 20% a year for the past decade. We’ve explained why our valuation of the services business, at about $30 a share, sits higher than most in previous reviews.
The iron ore business is undergoing a step-change in quality that will see output double and costs crumble from about $100 a tonne to $40 a tonne. That is being done by building an integrated logistics line to take ore from pit to port.
All the infrastructure to move ore will be owned by MinRes and it could be opened for third party access, or even partial sale, at some point. We don’t think improvement in the iron ore business, or the attached infrastructure, is being counted by the market. Iron ore adds another $10-15 per share to our valuation.
Following its expansion, the lithium business could be worth the entire market capitalisation of the business today. On a sum of parts basis, we think MinRes is worth over $90 a share.
Slow down
The balance sheet remains a risk. Over the next three years, MinRes will spend about $4bn in capital expenditure to grow lithium and iron ore volumes. Net debt has grown to $3.6bn and could climb further.
Yet the founder owns 12% of the business and management have built a track record of conservatism and success. We note that MinRes retains plenty of options of lowering risk such as selling project equity or infrastructure. The balance sheet is a risk, but not an insurmountable one.
Lithium prices also present a risk. Prices could remain weak. We also need to be aware that, like oil, cobalt or nickel, new technologies could change everything. Low costs, however, should protect margins as volume growth adds to cash flow.
It’s uncomfortable to buy when commodity prices are falling but these are the opportunities we must seize. We recommend starting slowly, but it’s time to BUY.
Disclosure: The author owns shares in Mineral Resources, as does the Intelligent Investor Equity Income Fund, Equity Growth Fund, and Ethical Shares Fund.
IMPORTANT: Intelligent Investor is published by InvestSMART Financial Services Pty Limited AFSL 226435 (Licensee). Information is general financial product advice. You should consider your own personal objectives, financial situation and needs before making any investment decision and review the Product Disclosure Statement. InvestSMART Funds Management Limited (RE) is the responsible entity of various managed investment schemes and is a related party of the Licensee. The RE may own, buy or sell the shares suggested in this article simultaneous with, or following the release of this article. Any such transaction could affect the price of the share. All indications of performance returns are historical and cannot be relied upon as an indicator for future performance.
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Note: As I explained earlier, Chris Ellison no longer owns 12% of the business as Gaurav suggests there, but he does still own around $1.5 billion worth (4.25% of MIN).
And Gaurav hasn't mentioned the various stakes that MIN is buying in other lithium miners (that I discussed above) which I think points to a longer term plan to control or at least provide the mining services for a larger group of lithium mines than what MIN currently owns.
MIN are market leaders in Mining Services but not yet in lithium and they are still a higher cost iron ore producer from their own iron ore mines. However, they do have a number of competitive advantages, not least of which is Chris Ellison, and his very entrepreneurial management, but also their off-balance-sheet assets like their P&E (plant and Equipment) graveyards - they will happily clean up old mining and crushing/ore-processing sites from miners who have gone broke, where MIN remove all of the old mining, crushing and loading equipment and plant - and also often do some site rehab - sometimes they are paid to do this and other times they will do it for free for the salvage rights because they store all of the old conveyors and ore crushing hardware etc. and use it to build new crushing plants at either their own mine sites or their clients' mine sites. And all of that used plant and equipment has a book value of $Nil. It probably has little to no value until they use it again, and then it does.
MIN can be sold down on poor iron ore sentiment or on poor lithium sentiment - and also when people are concerned by Chris's M&A moves, but having watched Chris Ellison operate for a number of years, it's an easy decision for me to buy MinRes shares at below $60 or up to $65/share, particularly with that very significant future lithium upside.
As usual, Chris has a longer term view and he's not content to JUST be a large player in spodumene - he wants that vertical integration and to refine the spodumene to produce battery-grade lithium hydroxide - and so far he's mostly used Albemarle for that, and he's outplayed them at every turn so far, but he's fairly agnostic about where his partners come from as long as he gets a good deal from them. And when he can't get a good deal, he just ploughs on and does it himself.
Here's a quick case study - just of Wodgina: when Chris Ellison was first developing Wodgina he said he was getting into lithium for a good time, not a long time, and he would likely sell out at a good profit before the peak, and then he sold half of it to Albemarle in late 2018 pretty much at the previous lithium peak, with an agreement that gave MIN half of the Albemarle Lithium Hydroxide (LH) plant that was being constructed at Kemerton (near Bunbury in south west WA) as well, and when that sale (for half of Wodgina) settled - at $US1.15 billion (A$1.58 billion), it looked like Albemarle had overpaid by quite some margin because the lithium price had declined sharply - and then Chris recut that deal a few more times over the next few years (always in MIN's favour), which saw Albemarle further increase their stake in Wodgina - which remained on "care and maintenance" (i.e. not producing anything) since shortly after the first sale announcement at the lithium peak.
This year Chris announced that MinRes had "simplified" their JV arrangements with Albemarle and that Albemarle would now control all of the Kemerton LH refinery but that MinRes would increase their own stake in Wodgina back up to 50% and would remain the mine operators. This came with a further payment to MinRes by Albemarle of US$380-400 million, including the net consideration for MinRes’ share of Kemerton and completion adjustments at Wodgina and Kemerton. See here: https://www.mineralresources.com.au/news-media/simplified-marbl-jv-agreement-reached/ [20 July 2023]
And here: https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/ellison-eyes-new-lithium-prize-near-albemarle-joint-venture-20231018-p5ed9f [22-Oct-2023]
He's not silly, that one! Smart cookie, and great to have in your corner. Not so good when you're on the other side of a deal with him or his company, but apparently he's loyal to his friends, employees, clients and partners, and so far longer-term MinRes shareholders have done very well out of investing in his company as well.
https://www.mineralresources.com.au/investor-centre/annual-reporting-suite/
Disclosure: I hold MinRes (MIN) shares in my major real life portfolios (including my SMSF) and have recently added them back into my virtual SM portfolio as well, taking advantage of the lower share price.
07-Aug-2023: LIT-Landmark-joint-development-agreement-with-Mineral-Res.PDF
It's interesting. I hold MIN, but I do not hold LIT shares. Back on the 20th July, MinRes (MIN) announced that they'd made some big changes to their arrangements (via the MARBL JV) with Albemarle - Simplified-MARBL-JV-Agreement-Reached.PDF - and the market initially sent their share price up +5.16% (or +$3.72 to $75.78) before selling them down over the next fwo days by -9.86% to $68.31. Then, on July 26th, MinRes released their FY23-Q4-Quarterly-Activities-Report.PDF and their share price rose +4% (to close the day at $73.82).
Monday's announcement (reproduced above, with a link at the top of this straw) didn't result in much movement; just -0.77% or 54 cents down to $69.42, on a day when the overall market was slightly down anyway.
By contrast, on the same day - Monday 7th August 2023, the LIT share price finished the day up +66.67%. They'd been trading at 3.3 cents ($0.033) for a week, and they finished Monday at 5.5 cents ($0.055), which is also where they finished Tueday (yesterday evening) after trading as low as 4.9 cps and as high as 6.6 cps during the day (Tuesday).
While this is Big News for a $67 million microcap like LIT (possibly a nanocap coz they had a market capitalisation of only $40 million last Friday), it's not such big news for MinRes (MIN), whose market cap is now $13.5 Billion. MinRes are no longer small - they're an ASX50 company now.
There's always plenty going on at MinRes, but I reckon the market often struggles to know how to interpret it. Certainly, if the recent Money-of-Mine Podcast coverage of Chris Ellison on the latest quarterly earnings call is anything to go by, the analysts at Australia's major broking houses don't have much of a clue!
Here's what happened to the LIT share price on Monday:
lit
Good if you're a holder (I'm not), but the context is that they were trading at higher levels a year ago and people were just giving up on them and selling out for the past 11 months. That is a massive lift in volume for LIT though, ain't it?!
Those sort of movements no longer happen with companies as big as MinRes is these days, but they can and do still grind higher, and MinRes (MIN) do tend to trend well both up and down for weeks and months at a time, so you can also trade them if you've got the time. I've done that in the past, but I'm just planning to hold them now.
19-July-2023: I hold MIN shares in my SMSF, however I haven't been following them very closely for the past 18 months or so, and I recently (on Monday) added MIN shares back into my largest RL portfolio as well, which is more actively managed than my SMSF is - meaning I often leave my SMSF alone for months, and that happens less with my other larger portfolio. Anyway, I was going through their announcement list this evening and I came across this: Change-of-Director's-Interest-Notice---Justin-Langer.PDF [13-April-2023]
Not THE Justin Langer, surely?! Not J.L. ?! But, a quick google search revealed that yes, Justin Langer AM, former Australian Mens Cricket Team Coach, and legendary Test Match opening Batsman for Australia for many years - alongside Matthew Hayden AM - was indeed now on the MinRes Board - see here: https://www.mineralresources.com.au/news-media/justin-langer-joins-minres-board-as-non-executive-director/ [15-December-2022]
MinRes’ Chairman James McClements said Justin’s appointment demonstrated the high premium the Board places on diversity of experience.
“As MinRes continues to grow, we believe bringing in a breadth of expertise and knowledge is key to our success,” McClements said.
“Justin’s outstanding leadership experience will further enhance our focus on people and culture, which is critical as we continue to expand our workforce to execute on our significant growth strategy.
Together with the recent announcement of Colleen Hayward as Non-Executive Director, the Board is now well-equipped to address the opportunities that lay ahead for our business.”
Justin said he was inspired by Chris Ellison and the Board’s vision for the future of MinRes and their commitment to the people who have helped make the business the success it is today.
“As a proud Western Australian, I understand the vital contribution of the resources industry and I’m excited to join such an outstanding WA success story.
“I look forward to making a meaningful contribution and bringing my leadership and people and culture experience to the Board from the new year.”
[mid-December-2022]
I remember when Australian wicket-keeper/batsman Adam Gilchrist (who is also from WA) was a director of TFS, a Perth-based sandalwood supplier. That story didn't end well. See here: Adam Gilchrist scores post as TFS director (smh.com.au)
and here: TFS Corp: the big short you can't short (afr.com)
TFS became Quintis and then collapsed: Quintis collapse: investors left with thousands of worthless shares after company calls in administrators | The West Australian
I don't think that's going to happen to MinRes however. MinRes is in an entirely different league than TFS was.
I don't know how I missed this bit of news over the past 7 months, but I did. Not bothered by it either way. Just thought it was interesting is all.
28-July-2022: MinRes-FY22-Q4-Quarterly-Activities-Report.PDF
MIN is up by almost 5% so far today on the back of this report. They are a significant iron ore player and by this time next year will also be a significant lithium player here in Australia. They have two of the world's largest known hard rock lithium mines (Wodgina and Mt Marion), and they have partnered with Albemarle whose Lithium Hydroxide refinery at Kemerton (200km south of WA's capital, Perth) is ramping up now after years of construction and they're already talking about a major expansion.
Albemarle lithium processing plant just weeks from first production already looking to expand - ABC News [16-May-2022]
Albemarle Bunbury lithium facility facing workplace safety investigation after complaints - ABC News [24-May-2022]
Image: One of MinRes' iron ore mines.
Disc: I hold MIN shares.
28-Jan-2022: I just read this article - Kemerton Omicron outbreak rapidly grows - which details an outbreak of the Omicron variant of the Covid-19 virus at the construction site of the Lithium Hydroxide plant being built by Albemarle and Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) at Kemerton in WA, just north of Bunbury (south of Perth). Wouldn't be a major issue almost anywhere else in Australia, certainly not in the eastern states or SA, but it is in WA, which has a lot less active infections than those other states and they would like it to stay that way.
Some interesting bits from the article:
The first case of COVID-19 related to the plant was detected on Monday.
Of the 24 total new cases of COVID-19 detected in WA yesterday, nine were related to Kemerton.
It took the total Kemerton cluster to 16.
"They are all related to Kemerton and Albemarle in one way or another," WA premier Mark McGowan said yesterday.
"[The plant] has been under construction now for a few years and is an important investment for the state in terms of downstream processing of lithium."
. . . . .
"There are 30 contractors on site but one contractor and one work area in particular have been affected."
The work area has been temporarily suspended, with all close contacts in isolation, some at a beachside resort north of Bunbury.
[could be worse...]
. . . . .
The Kemerton development, a 60:40 joint venture between Albemarle and MinRes, comprises two 25,000 tonne per annum lithium hydroxide modules.
The US$1 billion project has already been plagued by delays due to WA's tight labour market.
Kemerton I was due for construction completion by the end of 2021, but Kemerton II was twice-delayed last year until the June quarter.
First lithium hydroxide is expected by mid-year.
. . . . .
Remember that MIN (who I own shares in) are currently an iron ore play and a mining services play, but they have these lithium assets that they are developing in readiness for higher lithium prices, including the Kermerton lithium hydroxide plant and the Wodgina mine which they believe is the largest known hard rock lithium deposit in the world. That mine is on C&M (mothballed) ready to be fired back up when prices are more supportive.
I don't see this latest issue at Kermerton as a thesis breaker. These sort of delays are going to happen during a global pandemic. Still, I wouldn't mind being a close contact and having to "isolate" at a beachside resort - perhaps here.
The following images are of the Kemerton Lithium Hydroxide plant over the past couple of years.
16-Jan-2022: While MinRes (ASX:MIN, Mineral Resources Ltd, a.k.a. MRL) is a mining and a mining services company, they are highly profitable. This straw is just about that and their key metrics, which are good and getting better. With the exception of net profit margin (NPM), which dipped in FY21, their growth has been impressive and is all heading in the right direction:
Source: FNArena.com
The main thing to note here is the quantum of growth in EPS and book value over the past two FYs and also the Divs, Revenue, and net operating Cashflow in FY21. Their growth has not only continued, it has markedly accelerated.
While it’s very hard to value their mining businesses because the value of the commodities (like iron ore and lithium) change daily, it’s relatively easy to value their mining services businesses – which mostly have recurring revenue at set rates. TDM Growth Partners described MIN, on November 19th, 2019, like this:
“One of the most unknown, underappreciated, Australian innovation and commercial success stories, that since IPO in 2006 has achieved (and get ready to wipe your eyes in disbelief…);
- EPS growth of 15%
- Total shareholder return including dividends of 20x (26% per annum)
- Return on funds employed (pre-tax) averaging approx. 30%
- EBITDA to cash flow conversion of approx. 100%
Currently, this business has:
- A bulletproof balance sheet with $200m+ of net cash
- Inside ownership of over 15%
DO YOU WANT MORE?
What if we said it has the potential for EBITDA to grow over 20% p.a over the next 5 years
STILL WANT MORE?
And the kicker…. This business is trading on FY20 PE (ex-cash) of 7x!!!”
On that day (19-Nov-19) MIN was trading at $14.67. They were $14.65 the day before and got down to $13.92 two days later. They are now over $65/share.
TDM finish their Nov 19 piece with this:
“And so, why such a mismatch between the market’s view and how we (and other long-term shareholders like Emma @ Airlie) view the business? Rather than thinking (and valuing) MRL like you would a typical mining services business, with earnings heavily dependent on the mining cycle, why would you not start to think of it like a Macquarie Group – yes there are market-facing businesses whose earnings will rise and fall with commodity prices, but underpinning this, after 13 years of track record, are very strong annuity earnings streams. To back this up, in the last 5 years, MRL have retained 96% of all of its mining services contracts (and the other 4% is accounted for through a mine closure that had run its expected life span), and 76% of these contracts are for longer than 5 years (and a third is longer than 10 years!). Just to spell this out more clearly – MRL’s mining infrastructure earnings (crushing/processing/contract mining/accommodation) are high-quality annuity-style earnings with a high return on funds employed and the commodities (market facing) business can then be viewed as cream on the cake. Tasty cream. Very tasty cream.
We didn’t have the opportunity at SOHN (but loved Emma’s pitch!) to give the insight into our own thinking and appreciation of both MIN’s track record and unique business model. After all, at the moment, the mining infrastructure business and cash/investments alone are worth more than the share price. We can only hope over time more people feel the same way as we do but don’t expect this to happen overnight. Thankfully we are very patient investors. If it takes another 13 years and 20x bags later, then so be it. Sometimes it is best just to let these compounding machines speak for themselves.”
Source/Further Reading:
https://www.tdmgrowthpartners.com/insight/sohn-bonus/
https://www.tdmgrowthpartners.com/insight/when-charlie-munger-meets-mineral-resources/
https://www.tdmgrowthpartners.com/insight/mineral-resources/
Remember - that was back in 2019, and MinRes has really accelerated their EPS (earnings), sales (revenue), cashflow, dividends, book value and net profit margin since then. All are significantly higher than when TDM wrote that piece.
This business has been a wealth-winner for their investors:
Dividends:
All divs are 100% (fully) franked, and they've been growing strongly since 2019.
For more, see my Valuation for MIN.
Disclosure: I hold MIN shares in RL, and plan to add them back in to my SM portfolio once I sell something to free up some cash.
02-Mar-2021 (6:18pm): MIN Presentation at JP Morgan Global High Yield Conference
Mineral Resources (MIN) is a company I have held at various times and done very well out of. They look expensive to me currently, but many, including Guarav Sodhi from Intelligent Investor and Mark Moreland from TeamInvest believe MIN are the best run and highest quality mining services contractor listed on the ASX, and own them - even ast current prices. I wish I did, but I can't bring myself to pay these prices.
