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Straws are discrete research notes that relate to a particular aspect of the company. Grouped under #hashtags, they are ranked by votes.
A good Straw offers a clear and concise perspective on the company and its prospects.
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Source: MoM's daily newsletter, Friday's edition, "Director's Special" by Money of Mine
MinRes' AGM will be held on Thursday 21st November - this coming week - have the popcorn ready! It starts at 9:30am (AWST) and will be a HYBRID AGM. This one will be held at Mineral Resources Park - Function Room, 42 Bishopsgate St, Lathlain Western Australia - and online via their AGM portal (see below).
If you are attending the AGM in person, registration will commence at 9:00am (AWST). Please bring your Voting Form with you; using the barcode at the top of the Voting Form will help speed up the registration process.
Shareholders also have the option to attend the AGM virtually via the online portal.
To participate live online, please visit https://meetnow.global/M2WLDZQ on the day of the meeting.
Further details on attending the AGM virtually – including how to vote, comment and ask questions – are set out in the Notice of Meeting available at mineralresources.com.au/agm.
Any shareholder wishing to lodge a proxy vote or lodge questions ahead of the meeting can do so by visiting investorvote.com.au and entering the Control Number and Holder Number (SRN/HIN), as sent to shareholders with their notice of AGM.
Disclosure: Not holding, but would still like to be a fly on the wall.
Additional: That website address to "Investorvote" - powered by Computershare - is wrong, despite that web address being included in the MinRes notice of meeting. There is no ".au" in it, so that one doesn't work - the correct one is: https://investorvote.com/Login
Also, since that notice of meeting they've released the following announcements:
Pre-AGM Chair Presentation – October 2024 [29-Oct-2024]
Annual General Meeting - withdrawal of Resolution 4 [04-Nov-2024; Resolution 4 was for: Approval for Grant of Securities to Managing Director. Wouldn't have gotten up, one would have thought.]
13-Nov-2024: Bald-Hill-Operations-and-Mineral-Resources-Update.PDF
MinRes have put Bald Hill on C&M (care and maintenance) due to sustained low spod prices.
Also, yesterday, MinRes released their response to the ASX's latest "Please Explain" letter: Response to ASX Query Letter.PDF [12-Nov-2024]
I note that in this response the MinRes Board say in the "Background" section on page 1: "In answering ASX’s questions set out in the ASX Compliance Letter, given the subject matter of the questions, MIN considers it is most appropriate to answer ASX’s questions without reference to Mr Ellison’s knowledge or participation in the below matters."
So they are responding as a Board less the Managing Director of the company, which seems odd since he's still part of the Board.
They then use the words: "Excluding the knowledge of Mr Ellison, the present Board would be speculating in expressing a view as to..." in questions 6, 7 and 8. These questions relate to the lack of disclosures in the MIN IPO Prospectus and also the lack of related party disclosures in the 2006, 2007 and 2008 MinRes Annual Reports.
I'm not sure if the ASX will be satisfied with these responses considering Mr Ellison remains on the Board and remains able to provide the Board with details of his knowledge of these matters.
The entire letter in response to the ASX's questions has been written as though Chris Ellison is on leave - which I believe he is - and can not be contacted by the remainder of the MinRes Board so they have gone ahead and drafted a response without him that basically relies on the premise that none of them were on the Board back then so they don't know.
26-Aug-2024: MinRes' corporate governance has always been a little questionable, as it often is when it's one guy runnning the company as he sees fit - similar to Andrew ("Twiggy") Forrest at FMG, which is why the senior management at Fortescue don't seem to last long. Chis Ellison's MinRes (MIN) does not have those same issues with heaps of senior turnover, but this AFR article this morning is worth noting:
by Neil Chenoweth, Senior writer (AFR), Aug 26, 2024 – 5.00am
The daughter of Mineral Resources chief executive Chris Ellison has earned millions of dollars in undisclosed fees after her company was given preferential treatment to help ship the group’s iron ore exports, according to governance advisory group Ownership Matters.
An analysis of port records shows that Ship Agency Services, founded by Kristy-Lee Craker in 2011, has made as much as $10 million through hundreds of ships that have loaded Mineral Resources iron ore since SAS was set up in 2011.
Ship owners have been required since at least 2016 to use Ms Craker’s company when carrying the group’s iron ore exports.
Kristy-Lee Craker, managing director at Ship Agency Services.
Ownership Matters said port records showed that Ship Agency Services “is listed as shipping agent for hundreds of ships loaded with MinRes product that have sailed from the ports of Esperance, Dampier and Port Hedland over multiple financial years as far back as 2016”.
A review of hundreds of cargoes showed that all but a dozen shipments or fewer were handled by Ms Craker’s company.
Shipping agents provide myriad services, from organising documentation to port authorities and shippers to monitoring vessel operations, transport and crew arrangements.
The Ownership Matters report says her firm has chartered more than 1000 ships since it was set up. Industry standard rates for bulk carriers in Australian ports range between $5500 and $10,000 per engagement. Estimates of the fees paid to Ship Agency Services run as high as $10 million.
MinRes confirmed to Ownership Matters that Ship Agency Services was the group’s preferred shipping agent. However, it said payments to the firm did not have to be disclosed as related party transactions, because Ship Agency Services is engaged under contract with, and is paid by, the ship owner.
Mineral Resources said it was common within the industry to nominate a shipping agent. Ownership Matters is not suggesting the arrangements are improper.
Mineral Resources CEO Chris Ellison.
MinRes also uses a marine surveyor company, Propel Marine, set up by Ms Craker in 2018, to perform vessel draft surveys, inspections and marine warranty surveys on ships carrying the group’s iron ore. This leads to the unusual position where safety checks on MinRes ships are the responsibility of the daughter of the CEO.
“These services were performed at arm’s length rates,” a spokesman told Ownership Matters.
“It is common in the commodity industry for industry participants to recommend the use of a preferred ship agency. This enhances efficiency, safety and productivity in the loading or cargoes.
“MinRes has a process in place to ensure its shipping arrangements are in line with the market, and at commercial rates.”
Ownership Matters noted that “unlike BHP, Rio and Fortescue, ship agency at MIN has never been subject to a competitive open tender process.”
SAS also acts as shipping agent for ships owned and operated by Mineral Resources. These direct payments to SAS from MinRes as the shipowner are caught by the related party rules and should be disclosed. A Mineral Resources spokesman said that “direct transactions” between MinRes and SAS over almost 10 years were only “approximately $0.5 million in aggregate”.
In 2023, MinRes reported $428,000 in related party transactions involving SAS for “import/export services”, following $247,000 paid in 2022, but said the figures would be higher in 2024.
“This is due to the critical role played by SAS in facilitating the importation of key items for the Onslow Iron Project,” a spokesman said, an apparent reference to the acquisition of trans-shippers.
Until last year both Propel Marine and Ship Agency Services operated out of offices leased by Mineral Resources from a trust in which Mr Ellison has a 51 per cent interest. A MinRes spokesman told Ownership Matters that SAS paid rent for the offices.
An earlier Ownership Matters report in June raised questions over related party issues when MinRes invested in Wildcat Resources and Kali Metals.
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Source: https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/chris-ellison-s-daughter-earns-millions-for-minres-shipping-work-20240824-p5k51h [Today, 26-Aug-2024]
Disclosure: I am not directly exposed to MIN, FMG, BHP, RIO or any other iron ore companies at this point. I have also stepped aside from direct investing in any lithium companies for the time being. I admire and appreciate what Chris has achieved with MinRes and what Twiggy has achieved with FMG, and I have certainly made money from both companies, however I don't want exposure to either of them at this point in time for a variety of reasons, but underlying commodity exposure is the main one.
05-June-2024: 7:22pm: MinRes-sells-minority-stake-in-Onslow-Iron-Haul-Road.PDF
0:00:00 Introduction
0:01:36 MINs bring the cash
0:04:51 The Onslow iron ore hopefuls
0:17:48 What's going on in uranium
0:31:59 Sheffield start stumbling
0:39:39 Novelis ditch IPO plans
0:44:04 Leaky deals on the ASX
Disclosure: I hold MinRes (MIN) shares.
21-May-2024: Onslow-Iron-delivers-first-ore-on-ship-ahead-of-schedule.PDF
This is an important milestone for MIN. The whole sector (iron ore) is down today, so they're not getting the love they deserve for this achievement today, but it will come. I think this is another "up yours!" moment for Chris Ellison - because people definitely had their doubts especially a number of analysts who love to hate on Chris and MinRes. He was too bullish. His timeline wasn't achievable. He was too abrasive and abusive during analyst briefings and investor calls. Well, Chris isn't trying to win any popularity contests. He's running a business. And as businesses go, it's one of the better ones for sure.
MIN closed at $79.49 yesterday. MIN and RIO are both down by around -1% today. FMG -0.5%. BHP slightly up, but essentially flat, however BHP is trying to takeover Anglo American, so there's that - BHP would become a copper play if that goes through, which it probably won't - see here: BHP debates improved Anglo bid as time runs out in takeover saga - MINING.COM
I hold MIN.
0:24:50 MinRes - Katana Asset Management's biggest holding - Romano Sala Tenna tells us why [19-Feb-2024]
Disc: I hold MIN (MinRes) both here and in my larger real money portfolios.
23-November-2023: OK, MinRes (MIN) is certainly one of Australia's best mining services companies, and Gaurav Sodhi went as far as to call them "the best mining business on the ASX" in his 14-Dec-2022 article titled "Lithium: The mania and the cure - part 2" for the Intelligent Investor paysite where Gaurav has been their resources analyst since 2009. As well as resources, Gaurav covers telecommunications and power infrastructure. As Gaurav points out, MinRes' unique business model, far-sighted management and exceptional growth prospects have resulted in fantastic long-term returns.
They are also either the largest or one of the largest mining services businesses in the world, specialising in moving and crushing iron ore, they have billions of dollars worth of earthmoving equipment, fixed plant, trains, trucks and port assets, mostly in Western Australia - where most of the iron ore is.
They are also mine owners and operators, with a number of producing iron ore mines and other mining assets that includes two of the best lithium deposits on the planet - Wodgina and Mt Marion - neither currently in production but they will be soon enough. MIN is a company where a PE ratio is a flawed metric because the Earnings do not include the value of assets that haven't produced any revenue and earnings at all in the past year or two - or during whatever historical period you are looking at. These assets, while not currently producing any earnings, have substantial value and should not be overlooked.
On top of that we have MIN buying into various other Australian lithium companies while the lithium price is down and that's obviously for strategic reasons but part of it seems to be to stop Chinese and other overseas companies getting control of too much Australian lithium and other "critical minerals".
On 22-May-2023 the AFR published an interesting article titled, "What are Australia’s ‘critical minerals’ (and why are they critical)?": https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/the-critical-minerals-boom-is-about-geopolitics-not-geology-20230519-p5d9t7
Excerpt:
The wave of new lithium hydroxide processing plants built in WA is slowly reducing China’s dominance of battery grade lithium, but will amount to only 10 per cent of world lithium hydroxide supply by the end of 2024.
It’s a similar story in cobalt; 63 per cent of world supply is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, but it needs to be processed before it is turned into something useful, and China is responsible for 60 per cent of global cobalt refining.
To exacerbate the situation, China also makes about 75 per cent of all lithium-ion batteries and produces about 76 per cent of the world’s silicon metal, a crucial ingredient in solar panels.
As things stand, the world can decarbonise only if China permits it to do so.
--- end of excerpt ---
I'm not sure how Australia have 53% of global lithium production while China have 56%, but I'm guessing it's to do with the Chinese investments into Australian lithium mines, but in any case I believe Chris Ellison at MinRes and Gina Rinehart (Australia's richest woman, on the back of iron ore mining mostly, plus some other investments) both would like to (a) keep control of the best of our remaining Australian lithium assets right here in Australia, and (b) make some money for themselves in the process.
In Chris's case, he'd be making money for himself and other MinRes shareholders. Gina Rinehart's companies are not listed, they're all private family controlled companies, but we CAN invest in MinRes (MIN) and have exposure to Chris Ellison's vision and shareholder value creation.
In the past year or so, there's been a flurry of buying by MIN of blocking stakes in lithium companies like Wildcat Resources (WC8: 19.9% of WC8 is owned by MIN), 13.56% of Azure Minerals (AZS) where Gina Rinehart also owns 18.3%, and 17.4% of Delta Lithium (DLI) where Gina owns another 7%. It is not clear if there are any plans for Chris and Gina to work together with respect to any of these companies towards a mutually beneficial outcome, but it's interesting to view those companies in the context of what Chris and Gina control together between them.
Additionally, Gina and daughter Bianca Rinehart own 19.99% of Liontown Resources (LTR), another lithium company, and MIN have issued Lithium Australia (LIT) a $4.5m convertible note which LTR have begun drawing down recently. According to LIT's 30-Oct-2023 First-drawdown-from-Mineral-Resource's-convertible-note.PDF announcement, "On successful completion of the pilot plant operations and engineering study, MinRes’ convertible note will convert into equity in a new 50:50 joint venture (“JV”) between MinRes and Lithium Australia, which will wholly own the LieNA® technology going forward. The JV plans to license the LieNA® technology to third-parties at a target headline gross product royalty rate of 8%"
Fingers in many pies, but many of them are clearly lithium-related.
This is all while there have been overseas takeover attempts of some of these companies (LTR, AZS) and the lithium price has fallen quite a bit, AND lithium companies represent 5 of the 20 most shorted stocks on the ASX, including the number one most shorted stock, Pilbara Minerals (PLS), currently 18.5% sold short and rising.
Source: https://www.shortman.com.au/ [with some colourful highlighting on the left side added by me.]
MinRes also own 12.87% of Develop Global (DVP), the new miner/mining services hybrid company (just like MIN only a lot smaller) that is being built up currently by Bill Beament, the former driving force behind Northern Star Resources (NST) for all of those years. There are some analysts who believe that Bill B is the natural successor to Chris Ellison at MIN once Chris decides to step back or retire - both Chris and Bill admire each other's accomplishments with what they have done in business and their entrepreneurial mindsets. For that change at the top of MIN to occur however, it is likely that MIN would have to acquire the rest of DVP with Bill's blessing and for Bill to stay on to run the combined company. No guarantees but that's one possible future outcome, and makes sense in the context of MIN owning 12.87% of DVP, being a blocking stake that stops all other suitors from fully acquiring DVP, unless MIN agrees to sell. That blocking stake may hold DVP's SP back a little but doesn't do MIN's any harm. For clarity, Chris Ellison owns around 4.25% of MinRes shares on issue and Bill Beaument owns 18.5% of DVP shares on issue.
In 2006, Ellison and others established Mineral Resources as a merger of three mining services firms – pipeline contractor PIHA, ore-crushing firm Crushing Services International (CSI), and Process Minerals International (PMI). Ellison was a major shareholder in each of the three. Mineral Resources was floated on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) in 2006 at 90 cents per share. By 2022 the company's share price had risen to $71 per share, with Ellison holding around 12 percent of the company. He has since sold down that stake, but still holds 22,471,416 MIN shares, a stake with a current market value (based on MIN's closing SP of $64.72 yesterday) of $1.454 billion. He also owns one of Australia's most expensive homes and has other assets.
The Mosman Park mansion bought for $57.5 million in December 2009, setting an Australian record at the time.
The following is a small excerpt from: https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/recommendations/mineral-resources-takes-a-dive/152981 [Gaurav Sodhi, 10-Oct-2023]
The story of Mineral Resources is now legend. After leaving school at the age of 15, Chris Ellison made a fortune as he founded, then sold, a mining services business to Monadelphous in the 1980’s.
Then a troubled firm, Monadelphous went to the wall and Ellison lost everything. The firm was later revived under new management and is now a blue chip stalwart of WA, but Ellison missed all of that. He used his credit card, reportedly maxed to $10,000, to tie up three small services firms to create Mineral Resources.
The firm listed on the ASX in 2006 at 90c per share. It is now a $12bn colossus, the largest third-party crushing business in the world and, until recently, a stock market darling.
Source: Pilbara Minerals
Lithium is a notoriously difficult commodity to analyse. There is no spot market. Sales are made by opaque contracts and prices only disclosed after a lag.
Carbonate and hydroxide prices, which are processed lithium products used to make cathode materials for lithium batteries, require specific offtakes and prices are usually contracted and secretive.
Most miners, however, sell a spodumene concentrate, and prices for the concentrate have diverged from processed carbonate and hydroxide. While carbonate prices have fallen by 80% over the past 12 months, spodumene prices have merely halved.
These intricacies are lost when prices are driven by euphoria and fear.
We have been cautious about lithium. Markets tend to accommodate new demand with new supply in unexpected ways. When the world expected peak oil, shale extraction technologies upended the narrative. When cobalt became hard to access outside Congo, car makers learned how to build without it. Indonesian nickel producers have disrupted nickel supply by learning to process complex laterite ores. We’ve always been skeptical of the higher for longer camp in any commodity because that hasn’t been the path of history.
Lithium, however, is in a unique spot.
As we have noted in Lithium: the mania and the cure, lithium is moving from a niche commodity to a bulk commodity, a transition that will take time and require oodles of capital. To attract that capital, prices will need to stay above marginal costs for an extended time.
Lithium is out of favour now. Prices rose too far; subsidies in China have played havoc with inventories and new supply is coming. Yet we think there is a good chance that prices remain higher for a while. Only higher prices can incentivise new supply.
Albermarle, one of the world’s largest lithium producers, is valuing spodumene from Liontown, a takeover target, at US$1,600 a tonne. Industry insiders don’t always get it right, but their actions shouldn’t be ignored. Albermarle’s actions suggest new supply, especially low-cost supply, is hard to introduce.
MinRes is currently expanding output from its two hard rock mines (each 50% owned) and should produce about 900,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate within 3 or 4 years, up from about 300,000 tonnes last year.
Costs are expected to fall to between $500-600 a tonne, which leaves plenty of margin even if prices decline further.
MinRes is, of course, more than just lithium. The mining services business at the heart of MinRes has raised volumes by 20% a year for the past decade. We’ve explained why our valuation of the services business, at about $30 a share, sits higher than most in previous reviews.
The iron ore business is undergoing a step-change in quality that will see output double and costs crumble from about $100 a tonne to $40 a tonne. That is being done by building an integrated logistics line to take ore from pit to port.
All the infrastructure to move ore will be owned by MinRes and it could be opened for third party access, or even partial sale, at some point. We don’t think improvement in the iron ore business, or the attached infrastructure, is being counted by the market. Iron ore adds another $10-15 per share to our valuation.
Following its expansion, the lithium business could be worth the entire market capitalisation of the business today. On a sum of parts basis, we think MinRes is worth over $90 a share.
The balance sheet remains a risk. Over the next three years, MinRes will spend about $4bn in capital expenditure to grow lithium and iron ore volumes. Net debt has grown to $3.6bn and could climb further.
Yet the founder owns 12% of the business and management have built a track record of conservatism and success. We note that MinRes retains plenty of options of lowering risk such as selling project equity or infrastructure. The balance sheet is a risk, but not an insurmountable one.
Lithium prices also present a risk. Prices could remain weak. We also need to be aware that, like oil, cobalt or nickel, new technologies could change everything. Low costs, however, should protect margins as volume growth adds to cash flow.
It’s uncomfortable to buy when commodity prices are falling but these are the opportunities we must seize. We recommend starting slowly, but it’s time to BUY.
Disclosure: The author owns shares in Mineral Resources, as does the Intelligent Investor Equity Income Fund, Equity Growth Fund, and Ethical Shares Fund.
IMPORTANT: Intelligent Investor is published by InvestSMART Financial Services Pty Limited AFSL 226435 (Licensee). Information is general financial product advice. You should consider your own personal objectives, financial situation and needs before making any investment decision and review the Product Disclosure Statement. InvestSMART Funds Management Limited (RE) is the responsible entity of various managed investment schemes and is a related party of the Licensee. The RE may own, buy or sell the shares suggested in this article simultaneous with, or following the release of this article. Any such transaction could affect the price of the share. All indications of performance returns are historical and cannot be relied upon as an indicator for future performance.
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Note: As I explained earlier, Chris Ellison no longer owns 12% of the business as Gaurav suggests there, but he does still own around $1.5 billion worth (4.25% of MIN).
And Gaurav hasn't mentioned the various stakes that MIN is buying in other lithium miners (that I discussed above) which I think points to a longer term plan to control or at least provide the mining services for a larger group of lithium mines than what MIN currently owns.
MIN are market leaders in Mining Services but not yet in lithium and they are still a higher cost iron ore producer from their own iron ore mines. However, they do have a number of competitive advantages, not least of which is Chris Ellison, and his very entrepreneurial management, but also their off-balance-sheet assets like their P&E (plant and Equipment) graveyards - they will happily clean up old mining and crushing/ore-processing sites from miners who have gone broke, where MIN remove all of the old mining, crushing and loading equipment and plant - and also often do some site rehab - sometimes they are paid to do this and other times they will do it for free for the salvage rights because they store all of the old conveyors and ore crushing hardware etc. and use it to build new crushing plants at either their own mine sites or their clients' mine sites. And all of that used plant and equipment has a book value of $Nil. It probably has little to no value until they use it again, and then it does.
MIN can be sold down on poor iron ore sentiment or on poor lithium sentiment - and also when people are concerned by Chris's M&A moves, but having watched Chris Ellison operate for a number of years, it's an easy decision for me to buy MinRes shares at below $60 or up to $65/share, particularly with that very significant future lithium upside.
As usual, Chris has a longer term view and he's not content to JUST be a large player in spodumene - he wants that vertical integration and to refine the spodumene to produce battery-grade lithium hydroxide - and so far he's mostly used Albemarle for that, and he's outplayed them at every turn so far, but he's fairly agnostic about where his partners come from as long as he gets a good deal from them. And when he can't get a good deal, he just ploughs on and does it himself.
Here's a quick case study - just of Wodgina: when Chris Ellison was first developing Wodgina he said he was getting into lithium for a good time, not a long time, and he would likely sell out at a good profit before the peak, and then he sold half of it to Albemarle in late 2018 pretty much at the previous lithium peak, with an agreement that gave MIN half of the Albemarle Lithium Hydroxide (LH) plant that was being constructed at Kemerton (near Bunbury in south west WA) as well, and when that sale (for half of Wodgina) settled - at $US1.15 billion (A$1.58 billion), it looked like Albemarle had overpaid by quite some margin because the lithium price had declined sharply - and then Chris recut that deal a few more times over the next few years (always in MIN's favour), which saw Albemarle further increase their stake in Wodgina - which remained on "care and maintenance" (i.e. not producing anything) since shortly after the first sale announcement at the lithium peak.
This year Chris announced that MinRes had "simplified" their JV arrangements with Albemarle and that Albemarle would now control all of the Kemerton LH refinery but that MinRes would increase their own stake in Wodgina back up to 50% and would remain the mine operators. This came with a further payment to MinRes by Albemarle of US$380-400 million, including the net consideration for MinRes’ share of Kemerton and completion adjustments at Wodgina and Kemerton. See here: https://www.mineralresources.com.au/news-media/simplified-marbl-jv-agreement-reached/ [20 July 2023]
And here: https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/ellison-eyes-new-lithium-prize-near-albemarle-joint-venture-20231018-p5ed9f [22-Oct-2023]
He's not silly, that one! Smart cookie, and great to have in your corner. Not so good when you're on the other side of a deal with him or his company, but apparently he's loyal to his friends, employees, clients and partners, and so far longer-term MinRes shareholders have done very well out of investing in his company as well.
https://www.mineralresources.com.au/investor-centre/annual-reporting-suite/
Disclosure: I hold MinRes (MIN) shares in my major real life portfolios (including my SMSF) and have recently added them back into my virtual SM portfolio as well, taking advantage of the lower share price.
07-Aug-2023: LIT-Landmark-joint-development-agreement-with-Mineral-Res.PDF
It's interesting. I hold MIN, but I do not hold LIT shares. Back on the 20th July, MinRes (MIN) announced that they'd made some big changes to their arrangements (via the MARBL JV) with Albemarle - Simplified-MARBL-JV-Agreement-Reached.PDF - and the market initially sent their share price up +5.16% (or +$3.72 to $75.78) before selling them down over the next fwo days by -9.86% to $68.31. Then, on July 26th, MinRes released their FY23-Q4-Quarterly-Activities-Report.PDF and their share price rose +4% (to close the day at $73.82).
Monday's announcement (reproduced above, with a link at the top of this straw) didn't result in much movement; just -0.77% or 54 cents down to $69.42, on a day when the overall market was slightly down anyway.
By contrast, on the same day - Monday 7th August 2023, the LIT share price finished the day up +66.67%. They'd been trading at 3.3 cents ($0.033) for a week, and they finished Monday at 5.5 cents ($0.055), which is also where they finished Tueday (yesterday evening) after trading as low as 4.9 cps and as high as 6.6 cps during the day (Tuesday).
While this is Big News for a $67 million microcap like LIT (possibly a nanocap coz they had a market capitalisation of only $40 million last Friday), it's not such big news for MinRes (MIN), whose market cap is now $13.5 Billion. MinRes are no longer small - they're an ASX50 company now.
There's always plenty going on at MinRes, but I reckon the market often struggles to know how to interpret it. Certainly, if the recent Money-of-Mine Podcast coverage of Chris Ellison on the latest quarterly earnings call is anything to go by, the analysts at Australia's major broking houses don't have much of a clue!
Here's what happened to the LIT share price on Monday:
lit
Good if you're a holder (I'm not), but the context is that they were trading at higher levels a year ago and people were just giving up on them and selling out for the past 11 months. That is a massive lift in volume for LIT though, ain't it?!
Those sort of movements no longer happen with companies as big as MinRes is these days, but they can and do still grind higher, and MinRes (MIN) do tend to trend well both up and down for weeks and months at a time, so you can also trade them if you've got the time. I've done that in the past, but I'm just planning to hold them now.
19-July-2023: I hold MIN shares in my SMSF, however I haven't been following them very closely for the past 18 months or so, and I recently (on Monday) added MIN shares back into my largest RL portfolio as well, which is more actively managed than my SMSF is - meaning I often leave my SMSF alone for months, and that happens less with my other larger portfolio. Anyway, I was going through their announcement list this evening and I came across this: Change-of-Director's-Interest-Notice---Justin-Langer.PDF [13-April-2023]
Not THE Justin Langer, surely?! Not J.L. ?! But, a quick google search revealed that yes, Justin Langer AM, former Australian Mens Cricket Team Coach, and legendary Test Match opening Batsman for Australia for many years - alongside Matthew Hayden AM - was indeed now on the MinRes Board - see here: https://www.mineralresources.com.au/news-media/justin-langer-joins-minres-board-as-non-executive-director/ [15-December-2022]
MinRes’ Chairman James McClements said Justin’s appointment demonstrated the high premium the Board places on diversity of experience.
“As MinRes continues to grow, we believe bringing in a breadth of expertise and knowledge is key to our success,” McClements said.
“Justin’s outstanding leadership experience will further enhance our focus on people and culture, which is critical as we continue to expand our workforce to execute on our significant growth strategy.
Together with the recent announcement of Colleen Hayward as Non-Executive Director, the Board is now well-equipped to address the opportunities that lay ahead for our business.”
Justin said he was inspired by Chris Ellison and the Board’s vision for the future of MinRes and their commitment to the people who have helped make the business the success it is today.
“As a proud Western Australian, I understand the vital contribution of the resources industry and I’m excited to join such an outstanding WA success story.
“I look forward to making a meaningful contribution and bringing my leadership and people and culture experience to the Board from the new year.”
[mid-December-2022]
I remember when Australian wicket-keeper/batsman Adam Gilchrist (who is also from WA) was a director of TFS, a Perth-based sandalwood supplier. That story didn't end well. See here: Adam Gilchrist scores post as TFS director (smh.com.au)
and here: TFS Corp: the big short you can't short (afr.com)
TFS became Quintis and then collapsed: Quintis collapse: investors left with thousands of worthless shares after company calls in administrators | The West Australian
I don't think that's going to happen to MinRes however. MinRes is in an entirely different league than TFS was.
I don't know how I missed this bit of news over the past 7 months, but I did. Not bothered by it either way. Just thought it was interesting is all.
28-July-2022: MinRes-FY22-Q4-Quarterly-Activities-Report.PDF
MIN is up by almost 5% so far today on the back of this report. They are a significant iron ore player and by this time next year will also be a significant lithium player here in Australia. They have two of the world's largest known hard rock lithium mines (Wodgina and Mt Marion), and they have partnered with Albemarle whose Lithium Hydroxide refinery at Kemerton (200km south of WA's capital, Perth) is ramping up now after years of construction and they're already talking about a major expansion.
Albemarle lithium processing plant just weeks from first production already looking to expand - ABC News [16-May-2022]
Albemarle Bunbury lithium facility facing workplace safety investigation after complaints - ABC News [24-May-2022]
Image: One of MinRes' iron ore mines.
Disc: I hold MIN shares.
28-Jan-2022: I just read this article - Kemerton Omicron outbreak rapidly grows - which details an outbreak of the Omicron variant of the Covid-19 virus at the construction site of the Lithium Hydroxide plant being built by Albemarle and Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) at Kemerton in WA, just north of Bunbury (south of Perth). Wouldn't be a major issue almost anywhere else in Australia, certainly not in the eastern states or SA, but it is in WA, which has a lot less active infections than those other states and they would like it to stay that way.
Some interesting bits from the article:
The first case of COVID-19 related to the plant was detected on Monday.
Of the 24 total new cases of COVID-19 detected in WA yesterday, nine were related to Kemerton.
It took the total Kemerton cluster to 16.
"They are all related to Kemerton and Albemarle in one way or another," WA premier Mark McGowan said yesterday.
"[The plant] has been under construction now for a few years and is an important investment for the state in terms of downstream processing of lithium."
. . . . .
"There are 30 contractors on site but one contractor and one work area in particular have been affected."
The work area has been temporarily suspended, with all close contacts in isolation, some at a beachside resort north of Bunbury.
[could be worse...]
. . . . .
The Kemerton development, a 60:40 joint venture between Albemarle and MinRes, comprises two 25,000 tonne per annum lithium hydroxide modules.
The US$1 billion project has already been plagued by delays due to WA's tight labour market.
Kemerton I was due for construction completion by the end of 2021, but Kemerton II was twice-delayed last year until the June quarter.
First lithium hydroxide is expected by mid-year.
. . . . .
Remember that MIN (who I own shares in) are currently an iron ore play and a mining services play, but they have these lithium assets that they are developing in readiness for higher lithium prices, including the Kermerton lithium hydroxide plant and the Wodgina mine which they believe is the largest known hard rock lithium deposit in the world. That mine is on C&M (mothballed) ready to be fired back up when prices are more supportive.
I don't see this latest issue at Kermerton as a thesis breaker. These sort of delays are going to happen during a global pandemic. Still, I wouldn't mind being a close contact and having to "isolate" at a beachside resort - perhaps here.
The following images are of the Kemerton Lithium Hydroxide plant over the past couple of years.
16-Jan-2022: While MinRes (ASX:MIN, Mineral Resources Ltd, a.k.a. MRL) is a mining and a mining services company, they are highly profitable. This straw is just about that and their key metrics, which are good and getting better. With the exception of net profit margin (NPM), which dipped in FY21, their growth has been impressive and is all heading in the right direction:
Source: FNArena.com
The main thing to note here is the quantum of growth in EPS and book value over the past two FYs and also the Divs, Revenue, and net operating Cashflow in FY21. Their growth has not only continued, it has markedly accelerated.
While it’s very hard to value their mining businesses because the value of the commodities (like iron ore and lithium) change daily, it’s relatively easy to value their mining services businesses – which mostly have recurring revenue at set rates. TDM Growth Partners described MIN, on November 19th, 2019, like this:
“One of the most unknown, underappreciated, Australian innovation and commercial success stories, that since IPO in 2006 has achieved (and get ready to wipe your eyes in disbelief…);
Currently, this business has:
DO YOU WANT MORE?
What if we said it has the potential for EBITDA to grow over 20% p.a over the next 5 years
STILL WANT MORE?
And the kicker…. This business is trading on FY20 PE (ex-cash) of 7x!!!”
On that day (19-Nov-19) MIN was trading at $14.67. They were $14.65 the day before and got down to $13.92 two days later. They are now over $65/share.
TDM finish their Nov 19 piece with this:
“And so, why such a mismatch between the market’s view and how we (and other long-term shareholders like Emma @ Airlie) view the business? Rather than thinking (and valuing) MRL like you would a typical mining services business, with earnings heavily dependent on the mining cycle, why would you not start to think of it like a Macquarie Group – yes there are market-facing businesses whose earnings will rise and fall with commodity prices, but underpinning this, after 13 years of track record, are very strong annuity earnings streams. To back this up, in the last 5 years, MRL have retained 96% of all of its mining services contracts (and the other 4% is accounted for through a mine closure that had run its expected life span), and 76% of these contracts are for longer than 5 years (and a third is longer than 10 years!). Just to spell this out more clearly – MRL’s mining infrastructure earnings (crushing/processing/contract mining/accommodation) are high-quality annuity-style earnings with a high return on funds employed and the commodities (market facing) business can then be viewed as cream on the cake. Tasty cream. Very tasty cream.
We didn’t have the opportunity at SOHN (but loved Emma’s pitch!) to give the insight into our own thinking and appreciation of both MIN’s track record and unique business model. After all, at the moment, the mining infrastructure business and cash/investments alone are worth more than the share price. We can only hope over time more people feel the same way as we do but don’t expect this to happen overnight. Thankfully we are very patient investors. If it takes another 13 years and 20x bags later, then so be it. Sometimes it is best just to let these compounding machines speak for themselves.”
Source/Further Reading:
https://www.tdmgrowthpartners.com/insight/sohn-bonus/
https://www.tdmgrowthpartners.com/insight/when-charlie-munger-meets-mineral-resources/
https://www.tdmgrowthpartners.com/insight/mineral-resources/
Remember - that was back in 2019, and MinRes has really accelerated their EPS (earnings), sales (revenue), cashflow, dividends, book value and net profit margin since then. All are significantly higher than when TDM wrote that piece.
This business has been a wealth-winner for their investors:
Dividends:
All divs are 100% (fully) franked, and they've been growing strongly since 2019.
For more, see my Valuation for MIN.
Disclosure: I hold MIN shares in RL, and plan to add them back in to my SM portfolio once I sell something to free up some cash.
02-Mar-2021 (6:18pm): MIN Presentation at JP Morgan Global High Yield Conference
Mineral Resources (MIN) is a company I have held at various times and done very well out of. They look expensive to me currently, but many, including Guarav Sodhi from Intelligent Investor and Mark Moreland from TeamInvest believe MIN are the best run and highest quality mining services contractor listed on the ASX, and own them - even ast current prices. I wish I did, but I can't bring myself to pay these prices.
19-Nov-2020: 2020 AGM - Managing Director Presentation
Today, Friday 20-Nov-2020, Marcus Padley in his morning newsletter said:
22-Sep-2020: Presentation to Bond Investors
[I do NOT currently hold MIN shares, but I wish I did. They're too hot for me at these levels, so I would NOT be buying up here. However, they are one of Australia's best listed mining services companies, and I've certainly held them at various times, and probably will do again. They have a lot of exposure to iron ore via BHP and RIO - they do a lot of crushing and screening - and ore transportation - for them, plus they also own their own iron ore mines.]
24-7-2020: MinRes (MIN) Quarterly Activities Report
This is a mining services company that also own a few iron ore mines themselves and have other mining interests, and I made some money on them this year, and sold out WAY too early!! I took profits (sold out) at $16.29 in mid-April, thinking that the iron ore price was being artificially propped up by Vale's issues in Brazil, and that I could swap that money into something with better upside. MIN just kept on rising from there, and are now over $24. Should have trimmed some and kept the rest!
18-June-2020: Bull Case from Anthony KAVANAGH from Chester Asset Management: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/can-mineral-resources-be-a-40-stock
Can Mineral Resources be a $40 stock?
No, we aren’t projecting a USD150/t iron ore price. Last year we wrote, A Different Kind of Portfolio Manager, wherein we argued Mineral Resources (MIN) was heavily discounted, trading at ~AUD15/share vs our AUD26/share valuation. Given the wide discount there wasn’t much need for over-enthusiasm on the upside but this note serves as an update and provides us the opportunity to revise one of the issues we had with our first note, the Mining Services' valuation. Yes, we’re allowed to have issue with our own work. Rarely is the sequel better than the original but just as Adam Sandler made Grownups 2 sometimes the original was that bad/no-one saw it that it doesn’t hurt to have another go. For time poor readers we have worked backwards from our original note, providing an update on our valuation, followed by the detail on Lithium, Iron Ore and Mining Services, before rounding out with earnings implications.
Valuation Update
Combining our work below into a valuation is easy enough but within our analysis we are left with some key questions which materially influences the fair value outcome, hence the multiple valuation scenarios below. These include:
a) Whether to accept the iron price implied by Fortescue Metals (FMG)?;
b) What is a reasonable multiple and hence valuation of MIN’s Mining Services segment as more contracts become sticky Life of Mine (LOM) type infrastructure deals?; and
c) How much of the theoretical value of future projects: Marillana, West Pilbara and lithium downstream, including the associated Mining Services upside is reasonable?
--- click on link above (top of this straw) for the rest of this article, published on Livewire on June 18, 2020 ---
17-June-2020: Completion of restructure of non-core manganese assets and Resource Development Group Limited: Completion of Asset Acquisition from Mineral Resources Ltd
More M&A from Chris Ellison's MinRes (MRL, ASX: MIN), this time resulting in MIN gaining a controlling (75%) stake in Resource Development Group (ASX: RDG), a company which was was co-founded by its Chairman & MD, Andrew Ellison, the brother of MRL (MIN) Managing Director Chris Ellison, who "recused himself from all MRL Board discussions relating to the transaction with RDG".
I thought that was a typo and that he had "excused" himself, but it turns out that "recused" is a real word, and has been used appropriately, and it means to be excused, removed or omitted from involvement due to a perceived conflict of interest.
This deal means that RDG has acquired a 100% interest in the manganese tenements Ant Hill and Sunday Hill, both located in the Pilbara region of WA, and MRL (MIN) now controls 75% of RDG. Following completion of the transaction with RDG, MRL has appointed Mike Grey, Mark Wilson and Paul Brown as non-executive directors of RDG’s reconstituted board. Andrew Ellison will remain RDG’s Managing Director.
Mineral Resources’ Chairman Peter Wade commented:
“We are pleased to have completed this transaction with RDG, which will allow MRL to realise value from the non-core manganese assets today while preserving long-term optionality”.
“As we have flagged previously, MRL will support RDG in its aspirations to grow the volume and value of project work within the mining, energy and infrastructure sectors at a level that is complementary to MRL’s own contracting and mining services focus.”
Might as well keep it in the family.
MIN has been regularly hitting new 12-month highs over the past couple of weeks. RDG briefly shot up last Wednesday (June 10) to equal their 2.6 cps year-high closing price that they had previously set on April 17, although during that day (April 17) they did get as high as 2.9 cps intraday.
I have never held RDG shares, but I do regularly trade MIN shares. Not holding them currently. I feel that MIN has more downside than upside in the near to mid term as Vale in Brazil get their iron ore production back online. More supply without much of a further demand increase should, all other things being equal, result in a lower iron ore price. MIN regard themselves as being a mining services company, and they are, but they also own and operate a number of iron ore mines themselves as well, so they have plenty of exposure to iron ore.
24-Apr-2020: Quarterly Activities Report
Q3 Highlights
COVID-19 Update on Operations
The coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis is causing significant damage to communities across Australia and the world. Since the outbreak in January 2020, MRL has continuously monitored developments around the world along with guidelines introduced by the Federal and State Governments and the health authorities to minimise the risks that COVID-19 present to us.
In April 2020, we purchased gold-standard testing equipment and commenced swab screening for all of our fly-in fly-out (FIFO) workforce for COVID-19 as part of our total approach to minimising the spread of the virus. Our aim is to ensure that anyone travelling to our sites is free of the virus.
This initiative complements other actions taken on our sites, further details of which are available at www.mineralresources.com.au/home-page/covid19-response/.
--- click on link above for more ---
Disclosure: I hold MIN shares.
31-Mar-2020: 6:54pm: MIN: Expansion of Pilbara Iron Ore Footprint and BCI: BCI and MRL (ASX:MIN) Agree Transactions
Some time in the second half of CY 2018:
That AFR story from June 2018 paints a reasonable bear case for MinRes (MIN). They've now reported and they're trading a couple of dollars lower than they were a couple of months ago.
Here's the thing - I don't trust Chris Ellison like I trust the management at MND or GNG, but I do trust Ellison to do what's in his own best interests. He's got somewhere between $300m and $350m worth of MIN shares (over 21 million shares), so most of his personal wealth is tied up in MIN. He can afford a volatile share price, but he will make sure the MIN SP is up when he next wants to sell some shares.
He last sold shares in November (28th to 30th) and it was 1,862,766 MIN shares at $19.82 average price, for a cool $37 million. And that was only 8% of what Chris held at that time, so it wasn't a massive sell-down - for him, but he certainly got a good price! He also has another 365,462 performance rights under the MIN FY16 & FY17 LTI (long term incentive) Schemes that will vest at various times over the next couple of years. Chris will make sure they vest.
You have to expect plenty of volatility with MIN, but you can still make money from owning them. They can be traded or a long term hold.
18-Sep-18: I'm not currently holding MIN shares, but I often do.
19-Mar-20: I'm holding them again - bought back in after they reported in September 2019.
http://www.hazergroup.com.au/about/#learn_about_hazer
Hazer update on JV with MinRes (MIN), pilot plant on track for commissioning this year
http://www.mineralresources.com.au/innovation-centre/innovation-centre-bots.html
Wodgina Project Update, 15th June 2018
Acquisition of Cliffs' Yilgarn iron ore assets, 13th June 2018
http://www.mineralresources.com.au/mrl/csi.html
A little light reading for anyone who is interested. That last one is MRL's overview of CSI, their largest mining services division (Crushing Services International) who crush, screen & process ore (mostly iron ore) for the majors (BHP & RIO) as well as for some smaller players, and for MRL's own mines. They also have a pipeline engineering and construction division called PIHA.
http://www.mineralresources.com.au/mrl/piha.html
Their third mining services division is called PMI, Process Minerals International, and PMI is a specialist in the establishment of new mines and successfully implementing all stages necessary for initial production on behalf of tenement owners. PMI has wide ranging expertise in mine establishment and ongoing management and can manage the processing, production, logistics, ship loading, marketing and export of resource products. PMI offers a unique “end to end” menu of services from inception to production, production to marketing and marketing to sale and export – and all steps in between. They even do site services including accomodation, catering and cleaning.
http://www.mineralresources.com.au/mrl/pmi.html
There's plenty more info that can be found starting from their home page:
http://www.mineralresources.com.au/
Mid June 2018: MinRes (MIN) is an interesting company run by their MD, Chris Ellison, who owns 21.3m shares, or about 8.8% of the company, and was the founder or co-founder of the main companies that were merged to create MinRes. He considers MRL (Mineral Resources Ltd, MinRes, or just MIN) to be a mining services company primarily, even though he has increased their direct mining interests over the years, first in iron ore, and more lately in lithium mining. Chris had previously stated that he felt the lithium cycle would only last about 5 years and he intended to have moved on by the time it peaks. He has just announced that they are talking to potential partners to buy 49% of MRL's Wodgina lithium mining operation, with MRL to retain 51% initially and to lock in the mining contract for the life of the mine. They have also announced today that they are going to start reducing production of DSO (direct shipping ore) at Wodgina because they can sell Spodumene concentrate for twice the price of the DSO, and they can sell Lithium Hydroxide for twice the price of Spodumene, so they can't see the sense of depleting the asset at such a rapid rate when they can realise far greater profits through further processing before exporting the end product (value adding). Apparently, the people who are interested in buying the 49% of Wodgina from MRL (and forming a JV with them) are also of this opinion, unsurprisingly. Along with these announcements, they have also announced a large infrastructure upgrade at Wodgina:
Wodgina Update announcement, June 18th 2018
The share price of MIN can be very volatile, often moving up or down more than $1 in a single day. They have been involved in a number of takeovers, and a few of those have not gone to plan, like AWE, which was eventually taken over by the Japanese firm Mitsui, and Atlas Iron (AGO) which eventually went to Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting (or a subsidiary of it).
MRL (MIN) can be a good trading stock, due to their volatility. They can also serve as a longer term investment, but sometimes you have to give them time.
They are a very innovative mining services company, and a major force in lithium here in Australia. They are also getting into graphene.
Disclosure: 17-Sep-18: I don't currently hold any MIN, but I do trade them occasionally.
26 July 2019: MinRes (MIN) Quarterly Exploration and Mining Activities Report for June 2019 Quarter
Also:
26 July 2019: Confirmation of Chinese anti-trust clearance
25 July 2019: 2019 Financial Year Results - Release Date (Thursday 22nd August)
MIN (MinRes or MRL) is up over 8% today so far on this quarterly report and the news that MRL has been notified by Albemarle Corporation that unconditional approval has been obtained from the China State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) for the transaction between MRL and Albemarle, as announced by MRL to ASX on 14 December 2018. Completion of the transaction remains conditional on approval from the Australian Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and from certain third parties with interests in the underlying tenements.
25-Oct-2018: Wodgina Site Visit Presentation - see here
23-Oct-2018: Wodgina Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve Update - see here
22-Oct-2018: Acquisition of Kumina Iron Ore Project (from BCI) announcement - see here
22-Oct-2018: BCI: Iron Ore Divestment Update - Sale of Kumina Iron Ore Project - see here
18-Oct-2018: MIN 2018 Annual Report to Shareholders - see here
19-Oct-2018: Correction to MIN Annual Report (Synthetic Graphite Project) - see here
I haven't posted any straws on MIN for about a year, but their more recent announcements can be viewed from here.
Post a valuation or endorse another member's valuation.