21-Mar-2021: Most of the companies that are popular here on Strawman.com do not have a lot of major broker coverage, so I don't look at this too often, but I was having a look at Macquarie today and I was surprised by how varied the broker opinions and targets are. Obviously MQG is a leveraged play on the stockmarket, in that they tend to outperform in a bull market and are absolutely smashed in a bear market, i.e. they tend to overshoot the general market in both directions when the markets are moving. Broker views on MQG are therefore based on their outlooks for markets globally, as well as whether or not they think MQG has already run too hard. Here's what they most recently had to say, as summarised by Rudi Filapek-Vandyck at FNArena.com:
Morgans - 23/02/2021 - Add - Target: $162.30 - Gain to target $13.93
Macquarie Group has upgraded recent guidance for profit (NPAT) to be “up around 5%-10%” on pcp from "slightly down on FY20”. This was driven by increased demand for gas and power as a result of severe weather conditions across North America, explains Morgans.
After upgrading forecasts, the analyst notes the diversification of the Macquarie business has come to the fore and will help deliver an impressive profit growth outcome. It's considered the group remains well positioned to seize opportunities on the other side of covid-19.
The Add rating is unchanged and the target price increased to $162.3 from $147.
Target price : $162.30 Price : $148.37 (23/02/2021) Gain to target $13.93 9.39%
Credit Suisse - 23/02/2021 - Neutral - Target: $145.00 - Loss to target $-3.37
Macquarie Group has upgraded guidance for FY21 earnings to be up around 5-10%, having previously guided to "slightly down" on FY20. Accordingly, Credit Suisse upgrades estimates, anticipating an improved performance from the commodity markets.
Macquarie Group has indicated extreme winter conditions in North America have increased demand from clients for its services in relation to gas and power. Neutral rating retained. Target rises to $145 from $141.
Target price : $145.00 Price : $148.37 (23/02/2021) Loss to target $-3.37 -2.27%
Morgan Stanley - 23/02/2021 - Overweight - Target: $160.00 - Gain to target $11.63
Macquarie Group now expects FY21 profit to be up 5-10% compared with the prior guidance of "slightly down". Morgan Stanley expects a mildly positive reaction in the share price.
Winter weather in North America has driven stronger commodity trading conditions and the broker calculates new guidance implies an extra $500-600m in revenue in the commodity market segment.
This will be a one-off trading gain, with no flow to FY22. Overweight rating, $160 target and In-Line industry view maintained.
Target price : $160.00 Price : $148.37 (23/02/2021) Gain to target $11.63 7.84%
Ord Minnett - 23/02/2021 - Accumulate - Target: $158.00 - Gain to target $9.63
Macquarie Group has upgraded first half guidance, now expecting net profit to rise 5-10%. Extreme weather in North America has increased demand for the company's capabilities in the gas and power business.
Ord Minnett increases assumptions regarding multiples, to better reflect the value of the long volatility position that pays off sometimes when conditions are supportive. This leads to an increase in the target to $158 from $155. Accumulate retained.
Target price : $158.00 Price : $148.37 (23/02/2021) Gain to target $9.63 6.49%
Citi - 23/02/2021 - Sell - Target: $125.00 - Loss to target $-23.37
Macquarie Group has upgraded its FY21 net profit guidance by 5-10% implying a profit of $2.85-$3bn. – The upgrade was led by severe cold weather in Texas that has caused prices in the pipeline to spike.
Citi believes the upgrade suggests the group's commodities and global markets' division earned $600m in revenue in just 2 weeks. The broker upgrades its FY21 profit to $2,934m or 7.5% higher than FY20 while leaving the outer years unchanged.
Sell rating is maintained with a target of $125.
Target price : $125.00 Price : $148.37 (23/02/2021) Loss to target $-23.37 -15.75%
UBS - 10/02/2021 - Neutral - Target: $145.00 - Loss to target $-2.37
UBS observes Macquarie Group's update on December quarter shows a strong cyclical recovery in revenue with market conditions improving significantly. Even so, the group expects FY21 earnings to be slightly down on FY20.
The broker has a positive medium-term view on Macquarie Group as hard asset deal-flow improves and asset recycling accelerates.
Looking at the recovery in trading and markets revenue and the significant operating leverage, UBS upgrades the group's FY21 earnings forecast by 15%.
Neutral rating with the target price rising to $145 from $135.
Target price : $145.00 Price : $147.37 (10/02/2021) Loss to target $-2.37 -1.61%
Note: Excludes dividends, fees and charges - and negative figures indicate an expected loss.
MQG closed at $148.80 on Friday (19-Mar-2021). [I do not currently hold MQG shares.]