Company Report
Last edited 4 weeks ago
PerformanceCommunity EngagementCommunity Endorsement
ranked
#2
Performance (45m)
-5.2% pa
Followed by
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##prayforapullback
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Added 7 months ago

The ASX business so good ‘you can’t put a sell on it’


With headlines like that in the AFR - surely a pullback has to follow...



#PME signs five new deals with
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Added 7 months ago

HIGHLIGHTS  Signs five new customer contracts with a combined minimum value of A$45.0M  Broad range of customers - multiple segments of the market  New contracts are transaction-based with potential upside  


The contracts will be fully Cloud deployed and are expected to be completed within the next 6 months:

A $9.5M, 5-year contract with Consulting Radiology, a private radiology group in Minnesota

A $11.5M, 7-year contract with Nationwide Children’s Hospital, a leading paediatric hospital in Columbus, Ohio

A $6.5M, 5-year contract with Nicklaus Childrens Hospital, a leading paediatric hospital in Miami, Florida

A $9M, 8-year contract with Moffitt Cancer Center, in Tampa, Florida

A $8.5M, 5-year contract with US Radiology Specialists, a partnership of physician owned radiology practices. The contracts bring the company’s minimum total contract value (TCV) for new sales this financial year to $245 million.

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Return (inc div)   1yr: 93.91%   3yr: 37.59% pa   5yr: 39.48% pa

Latest pe ratio: 173% (the high pe puts many Investors off)




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#Onwards and Upwards
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Last edited 8 months ago

Thursday 2nd May 2024: PME have just made another all time high today - a intraday high of $112.59 before closing at $112.10.

PME, you've done it again!

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And I still do not own any PME in my real money portfolios - just here on Strawman - where I paid between $20.16 and $27.87 per share back in the first half of 2020, and that position is showing a +50.92%p.a. return over the past 4 years despite me trimming the position all the way up. Just couldn't bring myself to pay up for them with real money, as they always look fully priced or expensive, however they just keep on rising regardless!

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#ASX Announcements
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Last edited one year ago

Imaging company Pro Medicus leapt 9.3 per cent this morning after winning a $140 million contract with US-based Baylor Scott & White Health.

HIGHLIGHTS

• PME signs AUD $140M, 10-year deal with Baylor Scott & White Health (“BSWH”)

• Visage to replace legacy PACS and vendor neutral archive throughout the BSWH enterprise

• Contract is for “full stack” - Visage 7 Viewer, Visage 7 Open Archive and Visage 7 Workflow

• Visage 7 platform to be implemented in the cloud

• Continues PME’s rapid expansion into North American integrated delivery networks (IDN) and academic medical centers

• Transaction-based model with potential upside

#FY23 results
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Added one year ago

Yet another spectacular set of numbers from one of the best businesses on the ASX.

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I know you shouldn't be fussy with price when it comes to great companies, but Pro Medicus is on a PE of 127..

That could represent value, but you'd need to see at least something like 25% average annual compound growth in NPAT for 10 years, and for shares to then trade at a PE of 35 in 2033. If that happened, you get a 10% average annual capital gain.

Over the last 5 years, the CAGR in EPS has been about 35%. So if you extrapolate that forward and apply a terminal PE of 35 (about what CSL trades on), then your average annual capital gain is something like 18%pa over 10 years. On these assumptions, the company would have a NPAT of $1.2b in 10 years -- and that's perhaps not too much of a stretch, especially with expansion into other areas.

So I'm not saying shares are definitely too expensive, just that a lot of optimism is built in..

(An I'm just bitter having sold down so much over the years. Idiot!)

#Bull Case
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Added one year ago

PME gets broker upgrade from Goldman Sachs and now hitting all time highs

Lesson here is to go with the flow of the institutions and ignore those quoting that PER is too much.

#Contract win
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Added 2 years ago

Another day, another sizeable multi-year contract.

ASX announcement here: https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230516/pdf/05pqzwn2073wvg.pdf

Essentially, US$20m over 7 years (with usual upside due to transaction volumes)

This is the 4th major contract win in the last 5 months.

I still hold a small number of shares, but as much as I love the company, I still struggle with the price tag -- something like 50x forward sales.

##prayforapullback
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Added 2 years ago

One of the best run companies on the ASX. i use visage imaging everyday- its superb. It has helped revolutionise radiology reporting outside of normal business hours whereby imgaes can be taken and sent to someone anywhere in the world for reporting. Its such an effecient system that i often get CT scan images reported more quickly at midnight than at midday.

huge addressable market- most hospitals will use this or a similar system within the next decade. Of course the biggest issue is its just so damn expensive at current share price and is priced for perfection and more.

given the current price im an admirer from afar currently but a good pullback and i will be jumojng aboard. Something in the $30s would be nice. Might be wishful thinking but i need meat on the bones

#Bull Case
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Last edited 2 years ago

I have to admire the previous straws about PME being overvalued and trading at high valuations.

People probably buy stocks with no profit or are expensive for the same reason they would buy PME.

Some examples come to mind:

NST: trades at a high PE and premium to my NPV valuation despite the gold price going down. Management (Beament's legacy lives through Tonkin) and future value (2M Oz PA target).

DVP: No profit to show for yet but has top management via Beament.

AD8: No profit yet but sales are exponential

And then there's CXL, SLX, NEU, MIN, WTC, ALU, AEF etc...

I wish I not listened here and just bought the dip at $35 last year in June 22.

We've still yet to hear a bull case here. Only that it is trading on a high PE even though we are in an era of high interest rates and recession.

Having said all this, isn't PME also a healthcare stock? If so, then shouldn't it deserve the valuation because investors flock to healthcare sector during a recession regardless of its PE?

#Management
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Added 2 years ago

Such a well run business - if only all my portfolio companies had these business metrics. I am the same, I just cannot stomach that PE though!

#H1 FY23 Results
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Added 2 years ago

Yet another record half.

All the details are here, but some highlights include:

  • Revenue up 28% to $56.9m
  • NPAT up 30% to $27.2m
  • Cash up 4.4% to $94.5m
  • 3 major contract wins for the half.


This is the strongest half year in the company's (already impressive) history.

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The company has grown its top line from $14m in 2014 to well over >$100m for FY23 (pro-rata basis). But what's truly amazing is that they have done this:

  • Without raising capital, and an essentially flat share count
  • Sustaining insane NET margins (now at around 50%!!)
  • Paying out dividends! (divs per share are up 10x since 2014)
  • Gushing cash
  • Sustaining growth investments


It's a masterclass in capital management, and how structural disruption and network effects can combine to deliver incredible and long-last growth.

The only problem? My estimate for the PE on a forward basis is somewhere around 120x. I've said many times before you shouldn't overthink valuation for high quality, fast growing businesses, but still...

I retain a very small position.

#AUD $25m deal
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Added 2 years ago

PME signs 7-year, $25M contract with University of Washington's UW Medicine

Visage to replace legacy PACS throughout the UW Medicine network

Contract includes Visage 7 Open Archive and Visage 7 Workflow in addition to Visage 7 Viewer

Visage 7 platform to be fully deployed in the cloud

Continues PME's rapid expansion into North American Tier 1 academic institutions

#New 12m deal
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Added 2 years ago

PME signs A$12M, 8 year deal with Samaritan Health

  • PME signs 8-year, AUD $12M deal with Oregon-based Samaritan Health Services
  • Visage to replace legacy PACS throughout the Samaritan Health Services network
  • Contract includes Visage 7 Open Archive and Visage 7 Workflow in addition to Visage 7 Viewer
  • Visage 7 platform to be installed in the cloud
  • Continues PME's rapid expansion into North American integrated delivery networks
  • Transaction-based model with potential upside
#Industry/competitors
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Added 2 years ago

When going to RNS Private Hospital last week for family reasons, the doctor pulled up the imaging software to view some scans.

I couldn't catch the name of the software, but don't think it started with a V maybe an X

So I'm wondering who are the competitors in this space, and if so, is PME overvalued? And are fund managers and institutions getting it wrong bidding the price up 50+?

Need to start doing some research...

#FY22 Results
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Added 2 years ago

Pro Medicus (PME) released their FY22 results today. From their release:

  • Revenue from ordinary activities $93.5m – up 37.7%
  • Underlying profit before tax $62.4m – up 46.8%
  • Net profit $44.4m – up 44.1%
  • Cash and other financial assets $90.6m – up $28.8m
  • Company remains debt-free
  • Fully-franked final dividend 12c per share

Another fantastic result from Pro Medicus with NPAT up 44%. Hard to believe that this company has yet reached $100m in revenue even though it is trading at a valuation of over $5.5b. IMO this is one of the highest quality companies on the ASX and their results speak for themselves.

Net margins expanded once again and the company is continually signing up new customers especially in the US. At sub $100m of revenue there is still a very long runway for growth. However shares are basically pricing in perfection at this point. Close to 60x sales and 120x PE makes it very hard for me to buy at the current share price.

Will update my valuation accordingly later.

Disc: Held IRL and on Strawman.

#ASX Announcements
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Added 3 years ago

Promedicus just announced 2 contract renewals worth a combined $47m in revenue. Good to see long term renewals at increased prices

#Contract win
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Added 3 years ago

Yet another contract win for ProMedicus. This time, a $28m / 7 year deal with Allina Health.

Details here but essentially a copy and paste of all their deals. And they are winning lots.

There's nothing not to like about this business...except the price.

At 50x sales or 100x earnings -- on a forward basis -- it's just hard to wrap your head around.

#ASX Announcements
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Added 3 years ago

Promedicus sign a 8 year $32 million contract with Inova Health System, a leading non-profit health provider in North America

2924-02508623-3A591448 (markitdigital.com)

#Quality
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Added 3 years ago

These 5 reasons why PME is a good quality business may be useful, from the A Rich Life Pro Medicus Results Coverage


  1. Aligned founder-led management who run the business like the true long term owners they are.
  2. Benefits from powerful long-term tailwinds including:
  • ageing population
  • worsening health due to covid and obesity
  • inflation in healthcare costs in America
  • shift to cloud storage (healthcare companies are generally late movers)
  • rise of artificial intelligence
  1. Ridiculously high EBIT margins, likely to be sustainable over 60%, but almost definitely sustainable over 50%
  2. Global growth runway
  3. Potential to become a platform business if it can sell AI algorithms developed by independent third parties on its platform


#FY21 Results
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Added 3 years ago

Another very solid result for PreMedicus.

For the FY21 year revenue was 19.5% stronger to just shy of $68m, with net profit up more than 33% to $30.9m as the business continues to scale well.

The top line has grown at an average pace of almost 20%pa for the last 5 years, while NPAT has grown at a stunning 37% per year (on average). Net margins are not only incredibly high, but have steadily improved (see attached chart) -- NPAT *NET* margin now sits at 46%.

It would have been much stronger than this if it werent for FX movements (revenue and NPAT would have been up 30% and 56%, respectively).

Not only that, but all this growth has been entirely self funded, with no new share issues being issued, or virtually any debt, over the last decade. In fact, PME has over $60m in cash at the bank.

It's even paid a consistent and fast growing dividend along the way. For FY21 it'll pay 15c per share all up, 5x more than it did in FY16.

A record number of new contracts were secured over the period, and the sales pipeline remains very "healthy" according to CEO Sam Hupert.

The Research collaboration agreements with with the Mayo Clinic and NYU Langone Health have yieled an FDA approved AI algo for breast density screening, and there's good growth potential there.

I regard this as one of the best businesses on the ASX. The only issue is price, which is rather "full"

On the latest numbers, shares are trading on a Price to Sales of 86 and a PE of 190.

I've had some very serious regret being too fussy on price in the past, but i'm not tempted to buy any more at these levels.

That being said, given the economics and growth runway, shares could be considered 'fair'. EG. assume 30% NPAT growth for 10 years and assume the business trades on a PE of 35 at that time, and you get a FY31 share price of  ~$140. Discount that back by 10%pa to today and you get a valuation of $54 -- roughly where it sits now.

The only trouble here is that even if things go extraordinarily well (30% CAGR in net profit for a decade!), you get a market average rate of return. Anything short of that and you'd get an underperformance. So the phrase priced for perfection seems apt.

Of course, perhaps PME exceeds even this. But I find it prudent not to assume such lofty targets -- "margin of safety" being the other phrase that comes tro mind.

Results announcement here