Going by App review data, Raiz is going to miss its growth targets for Indonesia by a significant margin. 

App reviews grew by 107 over the month of March, which is a fall from 149 in February.  

Raiz targeted 1 million Indonesian accounts  within 3 years.  Assuming the same review hit rate of 65 accounts per review, The number of reviews will need to hit the 15000 mark.   I can't see that happening given the current progress. 

I significant quation remains over the SE Asian expansion...........................

Disc. - I have sold out of my (small) RZI position. 

Net loss of $2.4M, an improvement of 28% over pcp.

Revenue up 47%, an improvement of 47% over pcp, although a large management fee (under "other financial services") in H1 2018 conceals the businesses underlying growth.  the micro investing platform revenue growht was in excess of 100%.  

Key takeaways:

1) ARPC grew 76% over previous corresponding period, primarily driven by the maintenace fee increase in August (which doubled).   

2) Active customers grew by 21% on pcp.

3) Average acc. balance grew 40% to $1813.  Helped in no small mesure by strong market returns.  

4) FUM increased 75% over pcp.

5) Raiz Super gaining traction, growing 125% over pcp.  Raiz Super customers tend to be much sticke, with acc balanced 15x the averag acc balance.

6)   Advertising Revenue grew 42% over pcp.   The release of the Raiz bundll mastercard will enable bricks and mortar advertising, which may accelerate advertising revenue.  

7) Indonesia - reports 40000+ sing-ups to the beta version of the app.   targeting 1 million users in 3 years time ( equates $15 M revenue).  

8) Malaysia - targeting 300k signups by 2024 (equates to $4.5 M revenue)

9) Launched insurance products, and a new portfolio incorporating bitcoin (wisely set at 5% max).  

Good result, and on track to achievearound $9.2-$9.6 m for the fully year. 

In January, Raiz customers contributed a record $5.7 M to their Raiz Super accounts, DOUBLING monthly contributions made over the past 4 months.     

Assuming, the average Super account size is around $25k, I have estimated LTV of $800k is being added through the Raiz Supe product per month to the business, and this is accelerating.   

Raiz Super has very low customer acquisition costs, and if churn remains at the industry standard, could transform Raiz from a sub-scale investment platform to a +$1 billion FUM platform within 2-3 years.      

Survey shows Raiz Invest is one of the top 10 Fintech apps, in terms of use in a survey of customers.

The Jakarta Post reproted at the beginning of November,  there were 10000 app downloads, and 1200 accounts opened.   The articel reported Raiz are targeting to have 40 000 customers by the end of 2019.   

App Annie tells me there were 273 reviews of the app before November 1, and 376 review since November 1.   Going by this ration, there could be 22000 or so accounts as at the end of the year.   Alternatively, if you use the ratio fo reviews to accounts of the Asutrlaian business, you come up with a figure around 40 000 accounts.   

App ratings peaked in December, with 205, or nearly 30% of the total reviews.   

One other intersting point is the app rating has been steadily improving over the past few months, as they refine the app and its connectivity to Indonsesian banks. 

Raiz is not charging customers any fees at this point, which presumably will change in the new year.   40 000 customers will provide about $500k in additional revenue per annum, or $200k gross margin.  It will need over 100k of customers to breakeven. 

Raiz Indonesia Office has 5 employees, and I am guessing this is adding $400-600k in costs per annum.  Raiz reported the Oz operations reached breakeven in September, so Indonesia will be a drag on cashflow in the short term.  

Refer to the attached chart showing most popular fintech apps in Indonesia published late last year.   I think Raiz did well to make the list from a standing start in August.    

I am hoping for feedback in the Q3 report on indonesian account numbers.

Active customers and account sign ups continue to grow at an annualised rate of around 21%. 

FUM is growing at an annualised rate of 62% despite the sharemarket being marginally lower over the month.

It is dfficult to model Super fund sign ups.  It would be great if Raiz Invest reports Raiz Super sign ups.   This is a key metric as Super customers have a very high LTV when compared to the regular Raiz customer.  

Normalised revenue grew 121% yoy.   Sounds great, but I was expecting it to be a little higher.   Advertising revenue was below my expecations.   

Active customer growth = 16.1% yoy.

ARPU grew to $35.51 pa - this is 48% yoy growth!.  Given customer acquisition costs are about $20 per customer, groww margins of around 60%, RZI is showing good economics.   

FUM grew 13.6% on previous quarter.   Good growth, but Q1 and Q2 are traditionally the strong FUM growth quarters, as millenials tend to save in Q1 & Q2, then spend in Q3 & Q4 (paying off post Xmas credit card debt).   

Revenue will peak strongly in the Q2 report, via the full pass through of the fee increase (a further 15% or so uplift from Q1, and peak advertising revenue in the lead up to Xmas.   RZI should be very close to cashflow B/E in Q2.  

I like the stellar ARPU growth, driven by a combination of fee increases, Raiz Rewards platform, and Riaz Super rollout.