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Last edited 4 years ago
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#Investor update
stale
Last edited 4 years ago

Super Retail Group has seen incredible growth for the first 44 weeks of FY21, with online sales and BCF being the real standouts due to covid-inspired demand, and a solid easter trading period.

Indeed, BCF has reporetd 59% like-for-like sales growth, while online sales were 87% higher (online sales have been growing at 64% per year, on average, over the last 4 years (albeit off a very low base).

With less promotions (ie discounts), the company has also seen solid gross margins.

Based on this, per share earnings should easily exceed $1, and could be as high as $1.20. At the lower end of that range, shares are on a PE of just 11.

Excluding this latest super-strong period, the company has managed to deliver pretty consistent growth over the years, averaging around 6%pa since 2012. That's nothing compared to what we've come to expect for a lot fo the tech stocks, but it's a solid effort for a well-established, largely bricks & mortar retailer. A PE of 11 seems pretty cheap.

That being said, 2021 is expetced to be somewhat anomolous and most expect a normalisation of earnings in subsequent years. The consensus guyidance for FY22 is 83c per share.

Still, that gives a forward PE of 14. And with investors able to reasonably expect a fully franked yield of 3-4% from here, the price seems pretty undemanding.

You can read more detail in their latest investor presentation.

I don't hold. I'm generally not a fan of retailers and think increasing competition, especially from large online players, will put pressure on margins over time. Nevertheless, it seems there's some potential here.