Hello Everyone, there are multiple ways to work out the intrinsic value of any stock, but not sure which one is the most effective way to calculate. could you please advise?
Thank you in advance.
Super Retail Group has seen incredible growth for the first 44 weeks of FY21, with online sales and BCF being the real standouts due to covid-inspired demand, and a solid easter trading period.
Indeed, BCF has reporetd 59% like-for-like sales growth, while online sales were 87% higher (online sales have been growing at 64% per year, on average, over the last 4 years (albeit off a very low base).
With less promotions (ie discounts), the company has also seen solid gross margins.
Based on this, per share earnings should easily exceed $1, and could be as high as $1.20. At the lower end of that range, shares are on a PE of just 11.
Excluding this latest super-strong period, the company has managed to deliver pretty consistent growth over the years, averaging around 6%pa since 2012. That's nothing compared to what we've come to expect for a lot fo the tech stocks, but it's a solid effort for a well-established, largely bricks & mortar retailer. A PE of 11 seems pretty cheap.
That being said, 2021 is expetced to be somewhat anomolous and most expect a normalisation of earnings in subsequent years. The consensus guyidance for FY22 is 83c per share.
Still, that gives a forward PE of 14. And with investors able to reasonably expect a fully franked yield of 3-4% from here, the price seems pretty undemanding.
You can read more detail in their latest investor presentation.
I don't hold. I'm generally not a fan of retailers and think increasing competition, especially from large online players, will put pressure on margins over time. Nevertheless, it seems there's some potential here.
Super Retail Group (ASX: SUL) provides the following update on its trading performance for the 26 week period ending 26 December 2020. 1 SUMMARY • Record result driven by unprecedented consumer demand throughout the period
• Group sales growth of 23 per cent and like-for-like sales growth of 24 per cent
• Online sales increased by 87% to $237 million
• Group gross margin 270 bps higher than the prior comparative period (pcp) supporting higher EBIT margins across all four core brands
• Provisional segment EBIT (pre-AASB16) range of $253 million to $256 million, between 119 per cent and 122 per cent higher than pcp
• Provisional Normalised NPAT (pre-AASB 16) range of $174 million to $177 million, between 135 per cent and 139 per cent higher than pcp
• Statutory NPAT range of $170 million to $173 million, between 196 per cent and 201 per cent higher than pcp