TPW has has been a great stock for me. Bought at $5.50 in SM and average $4.10 in real life, so it's my first multibagger. Now I want to let my winner run, but thought I'd play around with a few scenarios to see just how crazy this price is at the moment.

Caution, this IS my first rodeo, so they'll be plenty of holes which I'm happy for people to point out.

Okay, based on the May trading update, and referring back to a few previous updates, FY25 revenue should be around $610M. Revenue has been growing consistently at around 25% a year for the last few years. EBITDA margin is expected to be close to 3%, same as FY24. The H1FY25 investor presentation has a long term EBITDA margin goal of +15%. NPAT margin in H1FY25 was 2.9%.

So, starting figures for this valuation are FY25 revenue of $605M, margin of 2.5%. Low growth scenario adopt 20% earnings growth, 5% margin growth, mid 25% earnings 10% margin and high 30% earnings and 20% margin growth. Forecasting 5 years, discounting back at 10% and adopting a weighting of low 25%, mid 50% and high 25% then I need a P/E of 60 to get todays share price.

In this scenario, the mid range has the revenue at $1.8B with a 4.4% margin. This is probably still single digit market share.

Is 60 high for a disruptor like TPW? Do I take some profits at $26.20? Oh, the laps my thoughts are doing in my head!