According to 42Macro leading liquidity indicator, Global liquidity inflected to a significant uptrend in September. Refer to green highlight parts of chart below.

Translating this onto the $BTC/USD chart below:

42Macro have been running this methodology for about 18 months or so, so a small sample size. However prior liquidity uptrend signal flagged the beginning of a rally in $BTC price.

DISC - HELD.

Yellen reports TGA spend down to commence mid January, following debt ceiling expiry on January 1. This will be a short term boost to global liquidity, with over $700 Billion currently in the TGA. The TGA will be exhausted by July / August if the debt ceiling fails to be re-negotiated in the first few months of the Trump Administration.

During the TGA spend downs of 2021 and 2023, Bitcoin produced positive returns.

DISC - HELD