- Terri is what VHT needed a few years ago. Ralph is the classic boffin, all brains and no business. That is not a slight at Ralph, all great business's start with the idea and brains, but the Greats know when to transition to business, and it’s my observation that Terri is going about fixing all the business things, and that in itself will generate synergies (and more revenue). With Ralph still the brains, VHT seems a good investment.

-Terri's honesty is refreshing in general. To say what she doesn't like is a good sign. To know where she wants to go is an even better sign.

- Terri is forthright. You want that in a leader. Terri knows when to defer to her team. You want that in a leader. Terri has a vision for a business end state. You want that in a leader. I'm on team Terri.

- The M$ Heart product makes sense. I'm onboard. The deal seems incredible for VHT, and all M$ gets is the ‘feel goods’.

- I remain comfortable that VHTs moat still exists and is strong; clinically, dataset size, and volumetric data type.

- The change of APRU to APRA makes sense.

- The change of sales tactic makes sense.

- I continue to like the SaaS model.

- VHT is a software company, and caught up in the sell off, but as pointed out; has lots of revenue, and is debt free - two of the big requirements for actual success. 

- Software companies need software engineers, and it sounds like Terri knows this and knows where to focus the efforts to achieve the outputs. (I consider AI ML to be software dev).

- The focus on “risk management” is a very smart move IMHO. Medical treatment is all about risk management, and I think her joke is deadly true – the doctor won’t be replaced by AI, but the doctor that doesn’t use AI as a decision support tool will be replaced! (by a doctor that will).

- My tolerance for software companies that are not cash flow positive is already high, which leads to one conclusion:

- A great investing quote is "sentimentality costs you money", but here I am, about to continue to HOLD and double down and BUY more. I normally leave ethics at the door with investing (spicy I know!) except in this instance, I think this company can do great good in the world AND make money in the process.

- Having said that, I think the wise move is to wait for the Strategic Review and buy from there. The risky money will move early... (I love the casino, that is me! Buy now!)

@Strawman A big thank you for pushing through and holding the meeting. Your platform continues to hold value for me (aka I’ll keep paying you money!)

Is VHT oversold?

VHT closed at $0.81 yesterday, and it was last at that price in Aug 2018, approx 4 years ago. It only dropped to $0.99 during the covid crash of Mar 2020.

Has VHT changed in 4 years? i.e. is it the same business worthy of that price? or is it now oversold?

I would suggest yes, it is oversold on some basic observations alone. VHT had 2.8M revenue on 8.8M costs in 2018 and has 7x the revenue for only 2x the cost.

I know there are other risks with the business, such as failing to turn that revenue into FCF, but is that risk now accounted for in the price?

Disc. Held IRL.

I submitted two questions during the ASX Small Caps Presentation, and completely forgot about them. The CFO Craig Hadfield replied today! I was surprised to say the least!

 “The $750mil TAM on the slide - is that VHT's slice of a larger TAM or the total target TAM where VHT has 100% domination?”

The US$750m TAM is our estimate of the Annual Recurring Revenue opportunity in the breast imaging software market, of which currently we have approx. US$20m. We currently have first mover advantage in a number of areas in breast imaging software market.

“Competitors - how do you see others comparing?”

 We have a number of products that we offer now, including Risk assessment, genetics, Analytics (our quality, performance and compliance offering), Scorecard (density measurement) and Patient Hub/Lung (patient tracking software.

We have varying levels of competition on each product, however in the areas of Risk assessment, Density assessment, quality and performance measurement we are market leaders with little to no competition with any level of validation. In the area of patient tracking we do have competition, namely Epic, PenRad and Magview and together with Volpara’s offering covers approx. 80% the market with relatively even market shares amongst the 4.

 No company has the platform offering we do with everything integrated which is vital to optimise clinical workflow for ease of use.

My thoughts:

I take the $750mil target as their global goal, not just for the US. Unsure if this is a reasonable and achievable TAM, but good to know either way and to watch from a metric perspective. It does imply an awfully large amount of growth!

Excellent insight on their competitors, where they sit against them and how they see their moat in relation to them. Again another possible metric to watch, if the others start to have significant or improved medical validation or workflow improvements.

I remain a happy holder.