Company Report
Last edited 2 years ago
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#Bear Case
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Added 2 years ago

Red flags accumulating?

  •  Perhaps I'm being too cynical, but todays “non essential” announcement on Nov trading figures seems to correspond nicely with the notification of the performance rights for Grey and Diamond and a flailing share price over the past 12 mths.
  • Rebranding, is is just me or is the new logo s**t?
  • Loss of momentum/brand recognition in the US by changing Quadpay to Zip
  • Acquisitions in far flung places, Poland, Saudi and India. It would seem pretty hard to integrate all the divisions across such a diverse group of countries, with differing regulation requirements and consumer trends/preferences.
  • Regulation in the form of increased/improved credit checks. I used to view this as a positive for Zip given they do consumer credit checks and if regulation tightened up they would be a step in front of APT etc. I no longer view this as a threat as I think it is unlikely governments around the world will try and reign in consumer spending at this time.
  • AGM, I listened in and found it quite “fluffy”, it felt like they trying too hard to spin positive vibes about the companies culture, for example everyone in the eco system was referred to as a “zipster”. 
  • Cash apps/crypto wallets etc, they were early in talking about this but appear to be left behind compared to Square, Paypal, even CBA.

 

I’ve been in and out of Zip over the years and have made good returns, but I am currently considering whether it has the legs to maintain its 2nd in line position or if it will fade in importance along with the other 3rd tier BNPL options.

Would appreciate feedback on the positive and negative sides

Disc: Hold a remaining small holding RL, considering getting out