Episode 9: Integrated Research, Xref and Mailbag

Is it time to cut and run?

Tune into any results call and you’ll hear plenty of smart-sounding questions (and a lot of alpha-male signaling). What you almost never hear are the questions that risk making someone look silly — even when they’re the ones that are really worth asking.   Technical, sophisticated questions are great for showing off, but it’s the simple, ‘dumb’ ones that really crack things […]

I was fortunate enough to join Luke Winchester (aka Wini) from Merewether Capital on Ausbiz last week, and he made a rather good point. Well, he made many, but the following stood out to me. To paraphrase: “If you can’t easily figure out exactly what a business does, it’s usually best to move on.” It’s a good heuristic. Right up there […]

Market history is a graveyard of great companies that were terrible investments. Not necessarily because that perception of ‘greatness’ proved unfounded, though that is common enough. But because people buy in at prices that are simply way too optimistic. “No matter how wonderful [a business] is, it’s not worth an infinite price” — Charlie Munger. The reality is that the stock […]

There’s an old (and quite unscientific) investment principle called the ‘rule of five‘ which states that for every five stocks in your portfolio, one will significantly outperform the market, three will more or less match it, and one will…well, it’ll suck. Badly. Overall, that makes the whole business of portfolio management seem rather futile. If the end result is pretty much a wash, […]

The ASX is set to round off a pretty solid year, with the All Ordinaries index up around 20% since January — about double the long term average annual gain. But can the Aussie market continue its winning run in 2020? The truth is, no one knows. Of course, you can expect to see all manner of pundits offer their […]

Why is it that building or renovation cost estimates are always — and I mean always — wrong? Usually significantly so. If you’ve ever watched shows like Grand Designs, or undertaken a bit of remodelling yourself, you know this to be true. Projects that are completed on-time and on-budget are rarer than hen’s teeth. This is especially true for “nation […]

Ranked #11 on Strawman, shares remain below fair value…