I really rate these simplistic approaches to valuation. 1. Because it's simple, easy and effective 2. Similar to many other here, I work a fulltime job and don't have the time or (admittedly) the desire to work through a DCF (plus I hate spreadsheets), and 3. Because I'm not that smart.

For what it's worth, I have been paying closer attention to ARB Corp - they've been on my watchlist due to their sound management, strong competitive moat, and high-quality products.

They are approaching what I consider to be an attractive valuation, so I'm getting closer to hitting the green buy button. What's my valuation? Pretty similar to yours to be fair, and I got this through punching in some questions and theories into my quant (aka ChatGPT and Claude AI). What has prevented me from buying at present is the risk I still see things as getting worse before they get better. Oil price to worsen, and recession risk is real. If that is the case then I see the SP falling further south.