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Last edited 2 months ago
PerformanceCommunity EngagementCommunity Endorsement
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Performance (45m)
-4.6% pa
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#Investment decision
Added 2 months ago

The investment thesis is well described here on SM (check out the company page and posts over the last year by some great StrawPeople).

Although maybe the SP hasn't bottomed out yet, I've bought my first position (1/3 or 2%) in RL this morning at a smidge over $8.60.

While I haven't done my own detailed valuation work, I am comfortable with valuations in the range anywhere from $9.50 to $12.00, as posted by both StrawPeople and analyst views, as well as looking at historical P/Es, current P/E, and a reasonable expection of >10% annual EPS growth for the next several years.

$DDR has been on my watchlist for a few years now, and I've been patient. What's made me take a bite now, in addition to the various cyclical tailwinds that others have written about, is also that we are now into the monetary easing cycle (which should be good for business investment, which will address some of the cyclical issues, like the ending of support for old platforms) or we likely will be in early 2025 in Australia.

In addition, the recent strong cloud computing / AI results in the current results for Google and Microsoft appear to bode well for higer value hardware and software offerings that $DDR will be distributing in the next 2-3 years.

Given that founder CEO discussions have featured significantly here over recent years, and that one day we will see succession from David for whatever reason, I have spent a bit of time examining the executive team below him. As others have written here, they are impressive and I think this is the kind of business that any good CEO can run.

Plenty of dry powder left to add more for this one, and I intend to accumulate a 6% RL position over time, but will be prepared to respond if the SP starts trending back up.

Disc. Held RL