I see that Biome has released an ambitious 3 year revenue target of $75 - 85m total for the next 3 years (FY25 to FY27). We'll get the full 3 year strategic plan later this quarter.

As Blair notes in the announcement, the previous 3 year target through to FY24 was exceeded, by achieving $24m vs a targeted $21m.

A cumulative target is a little odd, and as with the previous 3 years certainly wont be linear. But, for the sake of argument, let's try and map the last 3 years onto the next.

FY22 -- $4.1m (16.8% of 3 year total)

FY23 -- $7.2m (29.6% of 3 year total)

FY24 -- $13m (53.5% of 3 year total)

If we assume the cumulative total through to FY27 will be $80m, and the same proportions hold (they won't, but let's just see anyway), then the next three years revenue will look like this:

FY25 -- $13.4m

FY26 -- $23.7m

FY27 -- $42.8m

Given we finished FY24 on a ARR of ~$15m, this already looks wrong. So let's try a consistent growth rate.

To get to a total of $80m, we'd need a rate of ~30%, so..

FY25 -- $20m

FY26 -- $25m

FY27 -- $35m

Anyway -- all just guess work to try and map out how the company arrived at a $75-85m target. The point is that they seem to think that they can sustain very high growth in the coming years.

To come at it from a valuation standpoint, let's thumb suck a FY27 NPAT of $4m and an ending PE of 35 to get a market cap of $140m, which would be a share price of ~65c with no dilution. Discounted back by 10%pa gives a fair value of 48c.

Anyway, all very basic back of the napkin stuff. But helps frame up expectations for me.