Okay, these are my rough thoughts about the future of FDV. All speculation, no skill!

FDV is pretty much a SPAC. It's been buying up potential companies with the prospect of growth, amalgamation into groups and then sale. 360 LATAM has been pitched as a NASDAQ float at some point in the future and Zameen, of which they own 30%, has been talked about being floated or sold as well.

Firstly, Zameen. It was started by the Khan family and was going gangbusters until Pakistan's economy hit the skids. Things appear to have stabilised here, but we'll see. Now the Khan family have other interests, namely what was the Emerging Markets Property Group (EMPG), now based in Dubai. This group bought Bayut and Dubizzle and has now rebranded under the Dubizzle name. The Dubizzle Group is a collection of property, motor and classified companies similar to FDV and focussed on the greater MENA region. They have bought a few companies this year, namely Hatla2ee, an Egyptian car trader site in Feb and Property Monitor in May. This gives them a strong focus in the MENA region and is fattening them up for their float. Apparently Emirates NBD, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Morgan Stanley have been working with them for a year or so and the latest talk is of a float later this year targeting $500M to $1B.

If Zameen is in the float, then that is the catalyst for a rerate of FDV as they sell into the float.

If the float of Dubizzle group is a success, then they will be a cashed up group looking for acquisitions. Which is where MENA comes in and maybe Pakwheels. Dubizzle have the second or third place in these MENA markets where FDV has 1st through Avito and Tayara. Ripe for a takeover by a cashed up behemoth wanting to dominate the region.

Next is 360 LATAM. The aim is to list this on the NASDAQ and no doubt the structural review will have this as a focus. They were targeting $100M revenue, first USD then AUD, but revenue has stalled a bit. There was a problem with IRIS 1.0 and lead leakage, but apparently IRIS 2.0 has fixed that, so hopefully revenue will start to pick up again.. I think there's a good business here and the listing could work in the right environment, but the group needs to return to the growth it was previously experiencing. Nothing will happen here this year or maybe next, but watch this space.

And finally FDV Asia. These are more nascent businesses where the founder is still involved with approximately 50% ownership. There's work to be done, but if Patrick Grove and Catch Group want to wind up FDV after the above comes true then an approach to someone like the Digital Classified Group might create an exit.

The privatisation of Property Guru at $1.1B in 2024 and the recent equity raises by Dubizzle shows there's money looking for a home in these markets. FDV has a stable of quality assets which have just passed into profitability and are set to take off in the right climate. If you annualise the revenue across the group stated in the FY25 Q1 trading update, then FDV is currently trading on a touch over 1x revenue. And todays bounce to recover most of yesterdays fall makes me think there's a few others out there that can see a path to the future as well.

$12M at 56c is 21.4M shares to add to the 379M shares already on issue, so that would take my partial valuation below from $0.77 to $0.73 for LATAM. Risk as @PinchOfSalt says is that the SPP is open ended and they'll raise (and dilute) as much as they can.

Caveat: This is my first crack at a valuation, so forget the pinch, grab a bucket of salt!

This is a partial valuation based on the aspiration of getting FDV LATAM to $100M USD which Shaun di Grigorio has stated in recent presentations.

Firstly, let's assume that it takes 5 years to get there. In FY23, LATAM had $45.2M AUD revenue. If we adopt AUD/USD $0.70, then current LATAM USD is $31.6M, so we need 3 fold growth. CAGR over last 6 years is 46% so if that continues, $100M in 5 years is achievable.

As FDV is still at breakeven, I've looked at REA FY22 for an NPAT margin. They are 29% NPAT/Revenue. If we take 80% of this, FDV NPAT in 2028 could be $23.08M USD (There's a few big leaps in faith here, I know!)

But pushing on, with current shareholding (no raises), EPS is 0.06 USD. Adopt a PE of 15 gives us $0.91, discount to 2023 at 10% gives us $0.54 USD. Adopt $0.70 AUD/USD and we get $0.77 AUD, 11% above current share price. And this is only for LATAM. FDV ASIA, mainly Zameen, is currently 8 times larger than LATAM by EBITDA (2.5 times on an ownership basis) and MENA is approaching EBITDA breakeven so by 2028 I would expect it to be contributing to the bottom line.

I know the 5 years to $100M USD is a bit aggressive, but I think the PE of 15 is a bit conservative.

There is of course the issue of the consideration for previous acquisitions which could trigger a capital raising and blow out the EPS

On the other hand there is also the float of EMPG, which will place a value on Zameen which could be quite favourable for an full company valuation.

I'm hoping this will get picked apart so I've got plenty to think about for my next crack.

Held in SM and RL.

@reddogaustin and @Strawman have summed things up nicely.

Would have been good to hear Shaun talk a bit more about the possible NASDAQ listing of FDV LATAM and the future ramifications of the potential IPO of their Zameen partner, EMPG.

Still, I think FDV have a great model, well run and things humming along nicely.

Held in SM and IRL.