FY23 Presentation

Q4 Results

The Good

• Revenue for Q4 of $21.7m which is the highest of FY23 after 3 quarters of consecutive growth. 

• Quarterly EBITDA slightly down to $2.2m but positive for FY23 and up on the pcp to $4.8m
• Ended FY23 with $14.85m in cash
• After four positive cashflow positive quarters, FDV is now no longer required to provide the mandatory quarterly updates. Management have indicated that they will continue to provide an update on this basis. Hopefully these maintain the same details as per the current updates.

• 12.5% QoQ improvement in revenue in MENA up to $2.7m with revenue growth mostly from subscriptions. EBITDA reduced 50% against Q3 to $0.35m with Avito trended back toward previous performance.

• 93% QoQ increase in EBITDA in Asia to $0.6m on the same revenue. Primarily from an uplift in Zameen.

• 18% QoQ increase in EBITDA in LATAM to $1.75m on a marginal revenue increase. Driven by strong performance of InfoCass and Fincaraiz

The Not So Good

• 34% QoQ growth in staff expenses. This is the biggest driver behind the fact that even though there were record cash receipts, operating cashflow was down in Q4.

• Full year revenue down to $80.6 from $84.5 mostly driven by reduction in Zameens contributing revenue.
• A fall in the reported web metrics across all regions. This follows a flat quarter in Q3. Potentially a bit of seasonality in these numbers and wider macro events having an impact in these areas as they are in Australia. 



Watch Status

Downgrade to neutral due to financials behind forecast.

Valuation Status

Valuation reduced. Forecasts to be revisited based on FY23 results.

What To Watch

• Ongoing improvement in Zameen operations will lead to significant increases in contributions from the Asia region. Stabilising economic conditions in Pakistan could provide some tailwinds for a Zameen turnaround.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/03/19/pr2491-pakistan-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-second-final-review-9-month-sba

• Working towards increasing transactions revenue in MENA.
• Targeting gross margins of 40-50% across all businesses.
• Update on the status of Dubizzle listing. Likely London Exchange.
• Investing in a product roadmap to improve user experience and target new revenue areas. Keep an eye on impacts on investment spend and announced products.

Annoucement

The Good

• 9% QoQ increase in total revenue to $21m - $58.4m YTD. 

• 35% QoQ increase in EBITDA to $2.3m - $5.7m YTD

• Positive operating cash flow of $890k and free cash flow of $272k which led to a marginal improvement in cash position to $15.4m. Third consecutive quarter of positive operating cash flow.

• Operating expenses continue to remain flat

• General improvements shown across most of the groups business’s

The Not So Good

• Reported web metrics are flat over the previous quarter which may be a bit of a leading indicator for growth in the operating regions. These have only been reported over the last two quarters so it may be a little early to draw any inferences from these metrics

• Zameen revenues improved slightly, however EBITDA was down QoQ. (This result was impacted by currency appreciation) 
• Yappo (LATAM) and PropertyPro (MENA) also had ongoing EBITDA declines over the quarter.

Watch Status

What To Watch

• Q4 will require 14% total top line growth to match FY22 revenue which will 
• Improving operating margins mean that EBITDA is currently on track to exceed FY22 and deliver positive operating cash flow for the year.
• Roll out of Iris into wider LATAM markets expected to generate new revenues. This will show up in the “Other” revnue category in future reports.
• Avito has become the strongest performing brand by EBITDA. One off?

Announcement

The Good

• New branding for 360 LATAM and MENA Marketplaces indicate long term business building strategy by separating from the FDV name.

• The split of revenue type for each group was reported this quarter. If this metric is carried forward it will make tracking management’s focus on increasing transaction revenues easier.

• Although total revenue for Q2 was down YoY, overall EBITDA had improved which demonstrates that the focus on cost control is showing.

• $15m in cash remaining at the end of the quarter after earn out payments have been completed. Q2 was marginally operating cashflow positive for the second consecutive quarter, so this balance should be enough to fund the next stages of growth.

The Not So Good

• Zameen continues to struggle with revenues falling 32% QoQ from $3.65m to $2.45m and 64% YoY from $6.81m in Q2FY22. Management have indicated that revenues had started to show signs of improvement. Some of the improvement has been masked by the improving rupee.
• Total group revenue for the quarter of $19.2m, which is an improvement on Q1’s $18.2m but when annualised out to $76.5m is still down on FY22’s revenue of $82.3m. This shows how significant Zameen previously was to the business even with as the rest of the business’s continue to improve.
• While the operating groups are improving, the rate has been fairly slow compared to the targets indicated by management for LATAM. Also, most of the growth in the 360 LATAM group comes from changes in exchange rates. The only business with noticeable YoY growth was Encuentra24.



• This quarter's update is quite promotional compared to previous updates dedicating a slide on comparing the current share price to the IPO price. While share price ultimately matters as a holder, I’d rather the quarterlies focus on the business.

Watch Status: Cautious

What To Watch

• Improvement in Zameen revenues from May to June was flagged by management. With the macro situation improving this improvement should continue.
• Fincaraiz B2C revenue stream expected to contribute to growth in coming periods (Carried over from the previous quarter - No significant change this period)
• Continued growth in transaction revenue. This currently makes up ~26% of total revenue.. (Carried over from the previous quarter. Note this can now be tracked if the revenue splits reported this quarter remain)

The Good

• Overall cash flow positive for the quarter which is a signal for the growing strength in the LATM & MENA businesses. Management indicated all regions are cash flow positive, however the reported figures do not include Zameen which is the majority of the Asia business.

• Overall operating expenses continue to improve. This is unlikely to continue with any further significant reductions.

• As management indicated last quarter, Yapo EBITDA has improved -$309k for FY22 to $473k for the quarter. Avito also improved its EBITDA numbers significantly compared to the pcp off of flat revenue growth.

The Not So Good

• Significant impacts to the Zameen business from the wider macro issues in Pakistan. These will likely be ongoing for at least the medium term so the improvement across other regions has removed the reliance on Zameen going forward.
• Zameen revenues down 43% on PcP which has impacted the wider results. (LATM up 6% on PcP)

What To Watch

• Ongoing macro and economic issues across the wider geographic regions in which FDV operate. Generally the IMF sees GDP growth across these regions FY24 beyond.

• Continued growth in transaction revenue. 
• Management targeting revenues of ~$100m for LATM business in FY25 which is over 30% per year until FY25. Rev for Q1 was up 6% over FY22.
• Fincaraiz B2C revenue stream expected to contribute to growth in coming periods

The Good

• 37% growth in revenue to $82.3m resulting in a record full year EBITDA of $5.8m which is once again is adjusted for restructuring costs. These amounted to $1.9m, which if deducted still results in a record full year EBITDA. 

• Strong growth from businesses in all regions with Encuentra24, Zameen and Avito being standouts.
• Expenses are staying fairly level, with further cost savings having been implemented.

The Not So Good

• Yapo whilst increasing revenue slightly, there was a decent drop in EBITDA. Management has indicated that EBITDA has shifted positively going forward.
• Management have highlighted that changes in currency have masked performance of the holding companies like Zameen. This will continue to be a risk going forward, particularly in Pakistan and Colombia. On the flip side, they haven’t mentioned where the changes have helped results like in the case of Encuentra24.

FY22 Average - 141.63

FY22 Average - 2992.19

• Operating cash flow is still running in the negative. Now that the consolidated businesses are catching up to Zameen and FDV Asia in terms of performance, cash flows should start to improve going forward.

What To Watch

• There have been two quarters in a row now where there have been adjusted figures for “once off” costs. Keep an eye on ongoing restructuring costs.
• The restructuring costs are across the regions with consolidated business units so the results of these should start to show in the cash flow statement next quarter.
• Wider macro environment for potential further headwinds in the operating regions.

Further to @jimmybuffalino 's straw

The Good

• Record quarterly EBITDA of $2.3m with positive EBITDA across all three regions (needs to be taken with a slight grain of salt as MENA adjusted for ‘restructuring costs’)

• Expenses across advertising, product costs and admin levelling out which means that as revenue continues to increase there should be signs of operating leverage starting to show. 

• Businesses within Pakistan, Myanmar and Sri Lanka still maintain revenue despite significant disruption in the regions.

The Not So Good

• Operating cash flow was still negative for the quarter at -$1.5m, however there is still a strong cash balance of $28.9m which covers the growth period.
• Reductions in revenue across all MENA businesses compared to Q3FY21
• Yapo is currently a drag on the LATAM region having had revenue contraction of 23% on the pcp.

What To Watch

• Ongoing management of operational expenses, in particular staffing costs which are still rising
• Ongoing improvement in EBITDA margins
• Further macro impacts across operating regions, which impact both business operations and exchange rates which is the biggest risk to ongoing revenue growth.

The Good

• 8% revenue growth QoQ across the portfolio to $20.2m, trending for similar growth in Q2 with $7.3m revenue in March. Encuentra revenue would have attributed to this growth as ownership was increased from 26% to 100% in December 21. 
• Biggest annual growth across the businesses for Q1 was recorded for InfoCasas (108%) and Yappo (162%). FDV increased to 100% holding in these companies in H1 of 2021. Validates management capital allocation strategy. (Both are coming off small revenue base)
• Transaction on platform numbers continue to increase showing results from the focus from management as a key revenue driver across the businesses. FY22 currently tracking at ~70% increase based on March numbers.

The Not So Good

• Lots of talk about consecutive positive EBIDTA but overall operating cash burn is highest in 12 months at -$2.395m for the quarter with jumps in admin, staff and advertising costs. FDV has a solid cash buffer with $48m in the bank, so operational losses can be carried as long as the growth is continuing. These have been described as short term increases.

What To Watch

• Level of ongoing operating expenses 
• Organic growth levels when not impacted by acquisitions or ownership growth. Q2 should provide a clear indicator for this.
• $48m in cash, likely further acquisitions coming. FDV currently has 100% ownership across the LATAM and MENA regions, so without new additions to the portfolio, ownership increases will be in Asia. (PakWheels? Not a majority owner in this business)
• Integration of Ai (AGM Presentation) to streamline the advertising and transaction processes.