LYL reported today.

No commentary but the +50% NPAT lift must be how some payments fell. Full year NPAT guidance is NPAT~$46 to $50 million which will be up from $47M for FY23. They have a history of under promising. Don't be surprised for it to come in at $55M which would be 14% growth. Current P/E is 10 before today's release. Share price is up 10% today at time of writing.

LYL has announced a new contract win. The contract is for a Feasibility Study and Basic Engineering, valued in the vicinity of A$55 million. Work will commence on 22May, with the Feasibility Study scheduled for completion in Q4 2024.

The announcement doesn't provide the breakdown of the revenue for 2024 and beyond but it is a significant win given full year revenue for 23 is expected to be $320M.

LYL have today upgraded their guidance again. Revisions to guidance are rare for this company because the management are conservative, So they are traveling really well.

Nov 22 - Full year guidance $280M revenue and around $30M NPAT . FY22 was $232M and $27.2M.

Feb 23 - full year guidance of approximately $320 million in revenue and NPAT in the order of $40 million

Apr 23- updated guidance for the full financial year, with forecast revenue of $320 million and forecast net profit after tax (NPAT) of $45 million.

"...continuing to see a high level of activity across all operating sectors, delivering a robust order book of projects and feasibility studies across a broad geographic footprint. We are also seeing a strong study pipeline which bodes well for the future."

As I write this the share price has increased to $9. Even with that increase it only trades on a forward P/E of 8 with a really strong order book from conservative management. And BTW some of this is in lithium/battery projects.

Payout ratio last year was 79%. Lets assume payout ratio this year is 80% then $36 will be paid as dividend which is 10% (plus franking credits) on a $9 share price.

There's also the chance that the market will overcome its mining services hangover from 2012 and start to lift the P/E as well.

LYL reported today and provided guidance for the full year.

Lots of good numbers but NPAT up 30%.

Full year guidance has increased and is now $40M NPAT. They are very good with making forecasts so there is a high certainty they will hit that.

THe price has increased today to 8.30 as I write this. Even so that is a market cap of $330M so the forward P/E is 8 for a business with a strong outlook. Add to this the dividend. Half dividend is 36c. Assuming this doubles for full year that will make the yield (which is usually fully franked) about 8.5% based on the current price.

There is always the chance that the mining services businesses will be re-rated and p/e lifted.

Here is their commentary on the outlook. Monadelphus has some the same yesterday

OUTLOOK

• Demand for base metals is expected to remain strong, in support of the energy transition

• Market for resources used in new and low emission technologies continuing to grow, including lithium, copper, nickel cobalt, graphite, vanadium and manganese

• Demand for gold continues to be buoyed by investment in ‘safe’ assets amid rising inflation and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and growing consumption in technology

• The transition to green energy, with the development of systems to operate on low carbon energy sources, maximising waste recovery and reuse, sets the foundation for a period of challenge, innovation and change

• Domestic manufacturing continues to present opportunities for the Industrial Processes sector

LYL had their AGM yesterday and gave full year guidance. Revenue up 20% and NPAT 10%. This management normally under-promises so unless their margins shrink their NPAT will be higher.

I think it's a bargain because it is on a trailing P/E of 10 and yields 8% fully franked

Lycopodium has been awarded the Engineeringand Procurement (EP) and associated Project Management (PM) services contract for the delivery of the Sabodala-Massawa Expansion Project in Senegalfor Endeavour Gold Corporation(“Endeavour”).

The contract is valued at over A$26million, with first gold pour from the BIOX® plant expected in early 2024.

ANG, MND and LYL are all expecting and reporting strong sales.

See Rick's post about today's full year results.

You know that management is conservative when they report a near doubling of NPAT as a simple green arrow with no magnitude. They started the fin year with no guidance, then in Feb said it would be $22M NPAT, then in April $25M NPAT and now deliver $27M NPAT.

Fully franked dividend for the year at yesterday's share price is almost 10%.

Looking forward.

The market is about $200M and then have $100M in the bank! Not sure how much it will rise in price today but this P/E at yesterdays close is 8.5.

If you want a 10% return and assuming they only grow at 5% ad the P/E goes to 10 then you can pay $7.1

NPAT for the full year has been revised upwards since it was forecast at the half year. It has gone from $22M to $25M. My price estimate has also been revised upwards

LYL reported today and increased their guidance issued just a couple of months ago. Here's a summary of the outlook.

• Medium-term supply constraints are expected to continue to support historically above-average metals prices through to 2025 –driven mostly by increasing demand for materials used in the accelerating global energy transition
• Demand remains strong for resources used in new and low emission technologies, including copper, nickel cobalt, graphite, vanadium and lithium
• In particular, the market volume of lithium is expected to nearly triple by 2025, driven by high EV demand•Development in emerging markets, including waste and recycling, water and wastewater and hydrogen continues
• Full year FY2022 guidance –revenue of approximately $245 million and NPAT in the order of $22 million

Previously FY guidance was 20-22M.

re the full year guidance. The management a so good that there is an extremely high chance this will be achieved. However I think they could overshoot it because their NPAT would have to drop in the second half in comparison to last year. They just increased 1st half NPAT from $6.3M to $15.3M. Maybe there is a timing element to realising revenue but that is a big shift!.

Currently they are on a P/E of 8. That's cheap.

From 1 May 2019.

"We have previously communicated that project delays are a feature of the markets in which we operate. These delays have and will impact the full year financial result which is now forecast to be a net profit after tax of $16.3M onrevenues of $169M"

That's a drop from previous year of $19.6M

They also note that "Lycopodium retains a healthy pipeline of committed and highly prospective projects and looks forwardto a high level of activity across FY20".

I expect they will have a major pick-up in 2020. These guys play a very straight bat on guidance.

Half year update. Revenue down 20%. NPAT up 16%. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190222/pdf/442vy7s1tf7s42.pdf

Worrying. From https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190222/pdf/442vycls0lzrlt.pdf

Project delays and strong competition across all sectors and geographies remain features of our market.

Full year results expected 'broadly' in line with last year.

I'm reviewing since company will suffer in next downturn.

10/1/19 Major new contract win.

See below for details. $95M US mostly in FY20 and H1 FY21. That's ~$126M AUD over the two years. Their total sales last FY18 was $192M AUD. So this contract gives them about 30% of current revenue locked in for next 2 years.

AWARD OF YAOURÉ GOLD PROJECT ENGINEERING AND SUPPLY CONTRACTS

Lycopodium is pleased to announce that it has received a Notice of Award for the Engineering and Supply of the Yaouré Gold Project in Côte d’Ivoire from Perseus Mining

Contract revenue is expected to be US $95.1 million with the amount reporting across the last part of this financial year, FY20 and H1 FY21. Given project timing we do not expect any material impact to this financial year’s forecast.

Full year result. NPAT up 76.5%.  Sales up 10%. What does this say about margin and the strength of market. I think it indicates the bottom of cycle has well and truly passed.

The P/E is now 10 even after the price rise for full year report

Half year. $7.3M NPAT. $91.5M revenue. Say full year result will be $16.5M NPAT and $190M revenue.

That means. Full year will be EPS will be up 60% on last year. Current P/E of 17 (5/3/18) - ie forward P/E of 10.
http://www.lycopodium.com.au/uploads/investors/asx-announcements/2018/ASX%20Release%201H2017-18%20FINAL.pdf