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Last edited 2 years ago
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#Valuation
stale
Last edited 2 years ago

Ran a vastly oversimplified DCF analysis of NST based on their guidance and making a heap of assumptions, including a steady aisc and a flat 2m oz p.a. after a few years. Basically just ballparking here to try and work out a rough value for the company.

After 20 years with a 10% Discount rate we get a value of 9.7 bil (current market cap 10.4 bil). (Gold price USD 1700)

Using a 5% discount rate the value is 15 bil.

I find this curious as much of the analysis I've heard (podcasts) has said that gold producers are undervalued at the moment and are factoring in a $1500 USD gold price. Given the recent inflation figures, I think we are unlikely to see $1500 for a sustained period of time.

2 directors have bought on market recently.

Doc below - it really is just a ballpark doc and doesn't consider things like capex for new projects, or new projects coming online, etc.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NmgXyvSXOiua11X8cENRz_Sg9auhpfIiIKzu66p6R6k/edit?usp=sharing