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#FY24 Results
Last edited 4 months ago

Thursday 22-August-2024: FY24 Financial Results

Results Presentation for Year Ended 30 June 2024

Also: Northern Star - delivering on our commitments - Diggers & Dealers Presentation, August 2024

https://www.nsrltd.com/investors/presentations/#type=Presentation

https://www.nsrltd.com/investors/asx-announcements/

https://www.nsrltd.com/investors/

https://www.nsrltd.com/

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Disclosure: Yes, I hold NST shares.

And so does Marcus Padley's "Growth Portfolio" (managed fund) as from today (Monday 26th August). Here's his commentary on Friday:

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  • Northern Star Resources (NST) – One of our favourite gold plays along with EVN (NST is less volatile than EVN, daily ATR of 2.3% vs 3%). NST reported yesterday, rising 3.2% before losing morning gains to finish up 1.7%. The results either meeting or beating broker expectations. Record cash earnings of A$1.8bn, 1,621koz of gold was sold at AISC of A$1,853/oz, meeting its FY24 guidance. The outlook included gold sales of 1,650-1,800koz at an AISC of A$1,850-2,100/oz. Solid numbers but results for commodity stocks are less important compared to companies like WTC or BXB (covered yesterday). The biggest share price driver by far is the gold price which has been hitting one record high after another this year. Our gold price outlook is that despite being at record highs if bond yields continue to fall the gold price will continue to rise, supported by ongoing central bank buying around the world. Commodity stocks can be risky, there is every possibility of a 10-15% dip along the way but for a long-term holding it’s a buy. Will add to the Growth Portfolio with a 5% weighting on Monday provided Powell doesn’t do anything to scare the market tonight.

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Source: https://marcustoday.com.au/

So he's adding it based on technicals and momentum. I hold it because it's Australia's largest gold producer and a very well run company. Here's some excerpts from their FY24 results summary announcement.

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Under Bill Beament as Executive Chairman back when he was still at NST, he always said they ran the company as a business first and a miner second, so profitability and shareholder returns were what their decisions were based on.

Stuey Tonkin was their CEO under Bill and he's now their MD as well, and he's carrying on that same tradition.

In Summary: Why I hold NST:

  • Australia's largest and best gold exposure (Aussie HQ'd and their primary listing on the ASX);
  • Profitable, with plenty of growth, particularly the KCGM (a.k.a. the Super Pit/Fimiston Mill) mill expansion, underway right now;
  • A$2.7 Billion of liquidity including 30 June cash and bullion of A$1,248 million with net cash of A$358 million, plus during the year, they refinanced their corporate bank facilities with maturity dates of December 2027 and December 2028 across two equal tranches totaling A$1.5 billion, which remains undrawn at year end, and which along with their cash and bullion, provides liquidity of A$2.7 billion leaving the Company very well-funded;
  • Zero net debt;
  • On top of what they already own and operate, which is very substantial, NST have guided for $180 million just for Exploration expenditure in FY25, so there's certainly plenty of further potential upside from that as well;
  • Despite higher costs at Yandal (which is still profitable), NST's group AISC remains competitive, particularly considering their size and the fact that they aren't relying on hundreds of millions of dollars worth of copper by-product credits to reduce their AISC (yes, I'm looking at you EVN !) - so NST will remain profitable at substantially lower gold prices, and they are controlling their costs reasonably well (considering the inflationary environment they've been exposed to in terms of mining and engineering sector costs); and
  • I like Stuey's management style - low profile, but gets the job done.
#Annual R, R & E update
stale
Added 8 months ago

02-May-2024: Annual Resources, Reserves and Exploration Update [489 pages]

Market Like.

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NST closed at $15.10 on Friday and have been down every day this week (Mon, Tues & Wed) prior to today (Thurs 2nd May), with the worst day being yesterday when NST's SP dropped -51 cents (-3.41%), so good to see some claw-back today on the back of this annual Reserves, Resources and Exploration update.

Since that low point in early October (@ around $10/share), NST have been in a decent uptrend, which is not surprising given what the gold price has done and that NST is Australia's largest gold mining company.

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Some people may think gold has peaked for now based on yesterday's sector sell down...

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Source: MarcusToday daily EOD newsletter yesterday, Wednesday 1st May 2024.

But today Gold and Financials are the best sectors - leading the market back up.

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Source: MarcusToday, mid-day email, Thursday 2nd May 2024 [so middle of the trading day snapshot]


Consumer Staples are the worst sector today mostly due to the market selling Woolies (WOW) down by around -4% on the back of their Third-Quarter-Sales-Results.PDF.

The gold price has certainly dropped back from its recent all-time highs, but I doubt that the rally is done yet, I would expect this is more a pause in a continuing uptrend. But you never know.

#Onward and Upward
Added 9 months ago

11-Apr-2024: NST-Operational-Update.PDF


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Source: Commsec.

Nice Update (below, link above), nice chart, onward and upward.

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Cost guidance (AISC) up, but gold production guidance of 1.60-1.75Moz maintained, despite the bad weather around Kal in April and March affecting production. They produced 1.18Moz in the first 9 months of this FY (to March 31st), so they only need to produce 402koz in the final quarter to hit the bottom end of that full year production guidance. And they produced 401koz in the March quarter despite the weather. Additionally they expect a strong June quarter, with increased grade and improved mill utilisation rates.

Northern Star Resources (NST) is Australia's largest listed gold miner headquartered in Australia, and Australia's best gold miner by a country mile. The market weren't too interested in them after Bill Beament left to head up Venturex (now Develop - DVP), but the market is coming around now - because with the gold price hitting new all time highs now on a regular basis, and NST being so big and dominant in the sector, and performing well too - producing so much gold at reasonable costs (remembering that costs have increased for every gold miner), NST is hard to ignore. They will also be an obvious play for international money looking to find some exposure to the sector, because NST is now one of the top 10 gold mining companies in the world (see here: Largest gold mining companies by Market Cap (companiesmarketcap.com)) and the 34th largest mining company (across ALL commodities) in the world (see here: The top 50 biggest mining companies in the world - MINING.COM 05-April-2024).

NST also operate one of the 10 largest gold mines in the world (the Super Pit, next to Kalgoorlie) - see here: Here are the top 10 largest gold mines in the world (miningreview.com) - and one of the two largest gold mines in Australia - the Boddington Gold Mine (owned by Newmont GoldCorp) is the other one.

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The "Super Pit".

NST have stated (see here: Northern Star Resources approves $1.5 billion upgrade to KCGM's Super Pit Fimiston processing plant - ABC News 22-June-2023) that they believe that with the increased capacity, the Super Pit is primed to supersede Boddington Gold Mine as Australia's largest gold operation and join it as one of the top five gold producers (mines) in the world by 2029. And that will propel NST further up the world rankings in terms of top 10 global gold miners. Depending on what sources you use and the recency of the reporting, NST sits somewhere between 7 and 11 currently, however I believe they will be at #6 by 2030, and possibly higher if there is further M&A within the current top 6.

So the target is that NST will be a top 7 gold miner (likely #6 IMO) and be operating one of the world's largest 5 gold mines by 2030. Could be sooner than that depending on progress with the Super Pit expansion. It is already underway and due for completion in 2029, with full ramp-up being completed in 2030.

In June last year (see here) they said they had 120 million tonnes of pre-mined ore, estimated to hold about 3 million ounces of gold, at the Fimiston Mill (a.k.a. the Super Pit mill), and their chief technical officer (CTO) Steven McClare said that stockpile would be a "key feed source" for the new mill and provide certainty for the miner. Steve said, "If we stopped mining today, we could process that material and it would take more than nine years to actually get through that stockpile."

And they didn't stop mining obviously, so the stockpile continues to grow due to the current capacity constraints of the existing mill, however they are spending $1.5 Billion to upgrade that mill from 13 million tonnes a year to 27 million, so more than doubling annual ore processing capacity. And that is just ONE of their gold mines.

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Disclosure: I hold NST shares, both here and in my largest two real money portfolios.


#New Gold under Super Pit
Added 3 years ago

06-May-2022: (Friday): Interesting ABC News article on Wednesday (04-May-2022): Miner Northern Star Resources strikes gold beneath Kalgoorlie's Super Pit - ABC News

Plain Text: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-04/gold-miner-drills-beneath-kalgoorlie-super-pit/101035098

Miner Northern Star Resources strikes gold beneath Kalgoorlie's Super Pit

ABC Goldfields / By Jarrod Lucas

Posted Wed 4 May 2022 at 3:05pm, updated Wed 4 May 2022 at 3:23pm

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Underground access was restored from within the Super Pit last year through a portal on the western wall.  (ABC Goldfields: Jarrod Lucas)


It has been described as the "first glimpse" of a new world-class gold system beneath Kalgoorlie's famous Super Pit.

Despite more than a century of mining on the historic Golden Mile, there has been limited exploration outside of the rich deposits which have yielded more than 21 million ounces since the Super Pit began production in 1989.

Underground access portals on the western wall were developed last year to provide new drilling platforms for testing north-west of the existing pit.

The work represented the first significant underground mining activity on the Golden Mile in more than 30 years.

The investment by Perth-based gold miner Northern Star Resources is starting to pay off after it said it hit pay dirt.

In the company's annual reserves and resources statement to the ASX this week, Northern Star said drilling had increased the underground resources 20 per cent to 5 million ounces.


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Northern Star Resources chief operating officer Simon Jessop inspects the entrance to the new underground portal inside the Super Pit in May last year.  (ABC Goldfields: Jarrod Lucas)


Northern Star managing director Stuart Tonkin said the portals had been developed 1.5km in length and drilling only began last November.

"It's really not been a lot of time drilling and we're obviously continuing to drill now," he said.

"But we've already added a million ounces of inferred material."

He said there was 5 million ounces of Fimiston underground resource.

"So again it shows us the thin end of the wedge," he said.

"That investment is starting to show great signs of where the future can be underground there."



Deepest workings 1.4km underground


More than 3,500km of tunnels and shafts have been created underneath the Super Pit — equivalent to driving from Perth to Sydney- in a century of mining the area.

The deepest historical workings extend about 1400m below the surface.

But drilling has hit gold mineralisation as deep as 2km below the surface.

Northern Star has made no secret of its ambitions to eventually restart underground mining and is taking delivery of 39 new haul trucks as part of a $250 million fleet overhaul.


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Northern Star Resources chief executive Stuart Tonkin inspects the Fimiston Mill.(ABC Goldfields: Jarrod Lucas)


"We're really only looking at the one quadrant at the moment," Mr Tonkin said.

He said the company would put more drill drives to the south as well as onto the eastern side beneath the plant.

"At the moment it's like trying to eat an elephant, you've got to pick off bits and really focus in on it, and this drill drive is the first part of that," Mr Tonkin said.



Mine life beyond 2035


The current reserves at the Super Pit and neighbouring Mt Charlotte mine stand at 11.9 million ounces.

There are 27 million ounces of resources which require further geological work to prove up as reserves under the JORC Code.

The significance of the latest underground drilling results is the fact they are outside the current mine plan, which will result in further cutbacks of the Super Pit until at least 2035.


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Drilling from the underground portal has already defined one million ounces of new gold resources.   (ABC Goldfields: Jarrod Lucas)


"This is currently not in the plan, so it's important we get in and do this work over the next couple of years to define it and start to work out the scale and magnitude and how it can come into the mine plan," Mr Tonkin said.

"This is on top of the confidence we already have for the future of the Super Pit."


He said he was not surprised by the latest find.

"We're really confident we have multiple decades ahead of us," Mr Tonkin said.

"There is no geological reason why this terminates at depth."

The drilling results were released as Northern Star prepared to announce the results of a feasibility study into a potential expansion of the Fimiston Mill in coming months.

The Fimiston processing plant is one of the biggest in Australia and was commissioned in 1989.

It has since undergone two expansions and treats more than 13 million tonnes of ore a year from the Super Pit and Mt Charlotte.

Mr Tonkin said expanding to 23 million tonnes a year was among the options being considered.


Key points:

  • Northern Star Resources is Australia's second-biggest gold producer behind Newcrest Mining
  • The company paid $1.1 billion for a 50 per cent stake in Kalgoorlie's Super Pit in 2019
  • Northern Star Resources and Super Pit co-owner Saracen Mineral Holdings completed a $16 billion merger last year (meaning that Northern Star now own 100% of the Super Pit).


--- ends ---

The Kalgoorlie Super Pit is just one of NST's mines of course, but there wouldn't have been too many people who viewed it as a future growth option for NST, but it has just become exactly that with the gold they are discovering under the existing pit.

Disclosure: I hold NST in all of my main RL portfolios and NST is also the largest position in my Strawman.com virtual portfolio.

#Sale of Paulsens & W/Tanami
Last edited 3 years ago

14-April-2022 - Just to add to the straw by @edgescape on NST's announcement yesterday that they have agreed to sell their Paulsens Gold Operation (Paulsens) and Western Tanami Gold Project (Western Tanami) to Black Cat Syndicate Ltd (ASX: BC8) for $44.5m. This deal is subject to BC8 achieving finacing and if that occurs, NST will receive $14.5m plus 8,340,000 (i.e. 8.34m) fully paid ordinary shares in Black Cat (BC8) at a deemed issue price of $0.60 per share which is worth an additional $5m (or $5,004,000 to be exact). BC8 closed at 68c/share today. The other $25m is made up of $10m worth of milestone payments (details below) which are dependent on future gold production from both mines and $15m "deferred consideration" to be paid on 30 June 2023, so NST are really selling Western Tanami and Paulsens (which was their original company-making foundation asset) for just $14.5 million, plus around $5m worth of BC8 shares, plus another $15m to be paid in the middle of next year (total value: $34.5m). If BC8 produce gold from both mines in the future then NST can be paid up to an additional $10m in milestone payments as those milestones occur, as follows:

  • $2.5 million cash on production of 5,000 ounces of refined gold from Paulsens;
  • $2.5 million cash on production of 5,000 ounces of refined gold from Western Tanami;
  • $2.5 million cash on production of 50,000 ounces of refined gold from Paulsens; and
  • $2.5 million cash on production of 50,000 ounces of refined gold from Western Tanami.


Don't know about you, but I don't reckon I'd ever heard of Black Cat Syndicate before yesterday...

It should be noted that Paulsens and Western Tanami have both been on C&M ("care and maintenance", i.e. mothballed) as the AISC was too high for the gold that remained there in each case. A smaller company could perhaps give those assets the love and attention they need to become money makers once again - which is clearly what BC8 intend to do - however for NST, Australia's second largest gold mining company (behind NCM) and now one of the top 10 largest gold producers in the world (in terms of both market cap and ounces of gold produced per annum), they have bigger fish to fry now.


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Source: https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/company/nst [14-Apr-2022]


Still look like good value here to me!


Disclosure: I hold NST in my 3 largest RL portfolios as well as in my Strawman.com portfolio. They are still my number one gold producer pick, even with Bill Beament gone.


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Northern Star CEO Stuart Tonkin, executive chairman Bill Beament and former chairman Chris Rowe in 2016 posing for a Mining Journal article titled, "Beament not going anywhere" They were right for the next 4 years at least, but Bill did leave in 2021 to head up Venturex, now called Develop Global (DVP), and Stuey took over as MD (retaining his CEO position also). Bill B was replaced by Michael Chaney AO, who is also the Chairman of Wesfarmers and had been Wesfarmers' MD for 13 years (from 1992 to 2005). Chaney (pictured below) was also previously the Chairman of NAB and Woodside (WPL) and was a former director of BHP. He started his career originally as a petroleum geologist.

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That's all folks... For now...

Except: Paulsens the DNA of Northern Star - MiningNews.net

And: Northern Star hits gold at Paulsens (businessnews.com.au)

Those articles are from circa 2015/2016. Bill Beament bought Paulsens off Intrepid Mines for $40m in 2010 and built Northern Star up from that one foundation asset. NST's market cap today is $12.8 billion.

bb37163a4645f3c1e07fd1d8ba4f803f8071b6.pngIntrepid to sell Paulsens mine for A$40M - The Northern Miner

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#KCGM Site Visit Presso
stale
Last edited 4 years ago

26-May-2021:  Investor Presentation - KCGM Site Visit

Also - two days ago (24-May-2021):  Northern Star appoints Michael Chaney as Non-Executive Chair

In their KCGM (Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines, i.e. the Kalgoorlie Super Pit) Site Visit Presso, NST took the opportunity to reconfirm their FY21 guidance, saying KCGM was...

  • On track to achieve FY21 production guidance; 440-480koz at AISC A$1,470-A$1,570/oz
  • Operation being de-risked and productivities are increasing with multiple production sources; Production to rise to +675kozpa by FY28
  • KCGM leads Reserve and Resource growth:
    • 11.6Moz Reserves (up 20% over 9 months)
    • 26.3Moz Resources (up 38% over 9 months)
    • Underpins ~13 year mine life
  • Further growth via Resource conversion (KCGM Inferred Resources 8.6Moz), host of strong intersections outside Resources and Reserves, backlog of assays pending due to congested assay labs…
  • ...and focused exploration across a >90Moz gold camp.

And KCGM is just ONE of their assets.

[I hold NST shares, and I like their choice of Michael Chaney - who used to head up Wesfarmers {WES} - as NST's new non-executive Chairman, now that Bill Beament is moving to head up Venturex {VXR}.]

[P.S. I wonder whether the "backlog of assays pending due to congested assay labs" is positive for XRF Scientific {XRF} or ALS Limited {ALQ}...]

By the way, at the bottom of the below image (the KCGM asset overview; click on the image for a larger version) - you can see the northern end of the town of Kalgoorlie - the streets and houses - which puts the Super Pit into some perspective.  It is BIG!

#Company Presentations
stale
Last edited 4 years ago

04-May-2021:  Northern Star Resources (NST) Investor Presentation - Macquarie Australia Conference

Good overview of the company and the investment proposition, and what to expect over the next few years in terms of gold production from NST.  With the Saracen merger now complete, NST remain Australia's second largest gold miner, but they have now also become one of the top 10 largest gold producing companies in the world.  Newcrest Mining (NCM) is the only other Australian-HQ'd gold miner in that list.

[Disclosure:  I hold NST shares.]

#NST-SAR Merger Complete
stale
Added 4 years ago

12-Feb-2021:  Implementation of Scheme

MERGER OF NORTHERN STAR AND SARACEN IMPLEMENTED

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) is pleased to advise that the scheme of arrangement (Scheme) in relation to the merger of Northern Star and Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (Saracen), has today been implemented.

Scheme Consideration

In accordance with the Scheme, all Saracen shares have now been transferred to Northern Star, and eligible Saracen shareholders have been issued the Scheme consideration of 0.3763 Northern Star shares for each Saracen share held on the Scheme record date. The newly issued Northern Star shares are expected to commence trading on ASX on a normal settlement basis from Monday, 15 February 2021.

In addition, Northern Star has issued the Northern Star shares otherwise payable to "Ineligible Shareholders" (as defined in the Scheme Booklet) to a nominee who has been appointed to sell those shares so that the net proceeds of sale can be distributed to applicable Saracen shareholders in accordance with the process set out in the Scheme Booklet.

Changes to Northern Star Board Composition

Northern Star has appointed the following Saracen Directors to the Northern Star Board with effect from today.

  • Raleigh Finlayson, as Managing Director.
  • Anthony Kiernan, as Lead Independent Director.
  • John Richards, as Non-Executive Director.
  • Sally Langer, as Non-Executive Director.

In addition, with effect from today, Peter O'Connor retires from the Northern Star Board. Mr O'Connor joined the Board as a Non-Executive Director in May 2012, when Northern Star had a share price of approximately 40 cents and annual production of approximately 72,000 ounces.

Northern Star Executive Chair Bill Beament welcomed Mr Finlayson, Mr Kiernan, Mr Richards and Ms Langer to the Northern Star Board and thanked Mr O’Çonnor for his invaluable contribution.

“Peter has been an outstanding Director,” Mr Beament said. “His wisdom, experience and commercial acumen saw him play a vital role in the creation and execution of Northern Star’s growth strategy.

“His deep understanding of financial markets and the sound advice he provided based on many years of experience made him invaluable, particularly in times of intense merger and acquisition activity.”

Mr Beament said the Board looked forward to working with the new Directors as the Company embarked on its next chapter of growth.

“We have a diverse Board, with each Director bringing particular skills and experience,” he said. “This composition will help ensure we continue growing returns for all Stakeholders using our first-class team of people, exceptional asset base, strong cashflow and robust balance sheet.”

Delisting of Saracen

An application has been made to remove Saracen from the official list of ASX, which is expected to take effect on and from Monday, 15 February 2021.

--- ends ---

(There is also an appendix which includes a summary of the material terms of Mr. Finlayson's employment agreement - the new NST MD, who came with Saracen.  Click on the link at the top to read the full announcement, which includes that appendix.  Bill Beament continues in his role as Executive Chairman of NST.) 

[I hold NST shares.]

#Fundie/Analyst Views
stale
Last edited 4 years ago

10-Feb-2021:  On today's episode of Ausbiz's "The Call", Henry Jennings from Marcus Today (in the studio) and Andrew Wielandt from DP Wealth Advisory in Toowoomba, Queensland (via Skype) both gave NST the thumbs up (a "Buy" call), so it's been added to the Ausbiz "The Call" portfolio today.  NST and SAR both reported well this morning and the merger is now complete (this week) with the two companies reporting as one company as from this coming Friday, 12-Feb-2021.  As the guys say, if you like gold, this is the one to own, and I do.

Click on the link above to watch today's episode.  The commentary on NST starts from the 7 minute mark.

[I hold NST shares.]

#FY21 H1 Results
stale
Last edited 4 years ago

10-Feb-2021:  Half Year Results Summary   plus   Half Year Results Presentation

and   Half Yearly Report and Accounts

RECORD PROFITS, CASHFLOW AND INTERIM DIVIDEND

Growth strategy on track, with completion of Saracen merger paving way for increase in production to 2Mozpa, underpinned by organic sources and low capital intensity All results relate only to Northern Star; Saracen and Northern Star financial results to be combined from 12 February 2021 (merger implementation date)

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Record underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) of A$194.4M for the December Half, up 63% from previous corresponding period (pcp)
  • Earnings per share of A25¢; up 27% from pcp
  • Record statutory NPAT of A$184.5M, up 46% from pcp
  • Record underlying free cashflow of A$226M, up 94% from pcp, after record investment of A$108M in exploration and expansionary capital to grow production by 40% over the coming three years
  • Record Group EBITDA of A$472.2M, up 47% from pcp
  • Revenue of A$1.1B, up 34% from pcp
  • Interim dividend increased to A9.5¢ (fully franked), up 27% from pcp; Based on payout policy of 6% of revenue and calculated on the pre-merger issued capital base
  • Significant financial, operational and Company growth achieved while maintaining superior returns, with annualised average return on equity of 17.4%
  • Gold sales of 480,431oz at an average price of A$2,386/oz; 39% of gold sold into the hedge book, reducing hedging to ~10% of next three years’ production
  • Outstanding results across operations; EBITDA from operations of A$517M, up 42% from pcp; EBITDA margin of 46%
  • Cash, bullion and investments of A$372M at 31 December; Bank debt A$375M
  • On track to meet NST FY2021 production guidance of 940,000-1,060,000oz
  • Northern Star will host an interim results conference call today at 8:00am AWST (11:00am AEDT). The call can be accessed at https://webcast.boardroom.media/northern-star-resources-ltd/20210210/NaN6017468828cb65001a531637

--- click on the links at the top for more ---

[I hold NST shares.  As stated at the top, although the merger between NST and SAR (Saracen) is now complete, these results are only for the 6 month period ending 31-Dec-2020 so do NOT include any contribution from SAR.  Very impressive!  NST are still the Second Largest pure-play gold producer listed on the ASX and the best run (managed) gold producer by a LONG way, and they are now also a Top-10 global gold producer as well post the merger.]

#Quarterly Reports
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Added 4 years ago

21-Jan-2021:  December 2020 Quarterly Activities Report

PRODUCTION AT TOP END OF GUIDANCE, UNAUDITED NPAT OF A$100M AND DEBT CUT BY A$125M

Gold sales of 252,899oz; Standout performance at Pogo in face of COVID-19 challenges; Strong balance sheet with corporate debt cut to A$375M and A$372M in cash, bullion and investments

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Gold sold in the December quarter up 11% to 252,899oz; This was at the upper end of the published December quarter guidance range of 226,000-254,000oz
  • Strong performance at all operations:
    • Australian Operations (including 50% KCGM) sold 198,701oz at an AISC of A$1,526/oz (US$1,115/oz)*
    • Pogo Operations sold 54,198oz at an AISC of US$1,365/oz
  • Group all-in cost (AIC) of A$1,825/oz (US$1,333/oz) (including substantial investments in production growth), KCGM open pit material movement increased 22% over previous quarter; significant progress achieved on Pogo mill expansion to 1.3Mtpa; Pogo’s Jameson cell installed and gold recoveries +91%
  • Average realised price of A$2,295/oz in the December quarter; This included 48% of gold sold (~122,000oz) into hedged positions, reducing hedge book to ~10% of the next three years’ production
  • Strong underlying free cash flow of A$93M generated during December quarter; This was despite investing ~A$63M in growth capital and exploration
  • Unaudited NPAT of ~A$100M; Operating mine cashflow of A$290M; Net mine cashflow of A$169M
  • Cash, bullion and investments of A$372M at 31 December 2020 after repaying A$125M of corporate bank debt, A$40M in stamp duty/M&A and A$10M for FY20 tax balancing payment during the quarter
  • December quarter production:
    • Yandal Gold Operations:
      • 65,396oz mined and 68,405oz sold at an AISC A$1,203/oz (US$879/oz) with AIC of A$1,407/oz
    • KCGM Gold Operations (50% Ownership):
      • 48,460oz mined and 58,565oz sold at an AISC A$1,359/oz (US$993/oz) with AIC of A$1,561/oz
    • Kalgoorlie Gold Operations:
      • 71,709oz mined and 71,731oz sold at an AISC A$1,968/oz (US$1,437/oz) with AIC of A$2,132/oz
    • Pogo Gold Operations:
      • 58,744oz mined and 54,198oz sold at an AISC US$1,365/oz with AIC of US$1,629/oz
  • Second court date to finalise merger with Saracen Mineral Holdings (ASX: SAR) set for February 2, 2021
  • Combined group on track to achieve annual production guidance of 1.6Moz with pathway to 2Moz while unlocking synergies of A$1.5-2B
  • Northern Star will host a quarterly conference call today, 21 January 2021, at 12:00pm AEDT (9:00am AWST). The call can be accessed at https://webcast.boardroom.media/northern-star-resourcesltd/20201027/NaN5fff9378aec8340019d1c1dc

--- click on the link at the top for the full report ---

[I hold NST and SAR shares.]

#NST & SAR to merge
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Added 4 years ago

25-Nov-2020:  Update on Proposed Merger of Equals

Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR, “Saracen”) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST, “Northern Star”) refer to their joint announcement dated 6 October 2020, in which Saracen and Northern Star announced execution of a binding Merger Implementation Deed (“MID”) under which Northern Star will acquire 100% of the shares in Saracen via a Saracen scheme of arrangement (“Scheme”).

Saracen and Northern Star are pleased to confirm that all Northern Star financier consents and Material Saracen Facilities and Relevant Agreements consents required under items 7 and 8 of clause 3.2 of the MID have now been obtained, and those conditions precedent are now satisfied.

The Scheme remains subject to the remaining conditions precedent in clause 3.2 of the MID, which include approval being obtained from Saracen shareholders and Court approval in relation to the Scheme.

As set out in the previous joint announcement, Saracen is expecting to circulate a scheme booklet (containing information about the Scheme and the basis for the Saracen Board's unanimous recommendation, as well as an Independent Expert's Report) to Saracen shareholders in December 2020. The Scheme is currently expected to be implemented in February 2021, subject to Saracen shareholders approving it and all other remaining conditions being satisfied.

The Scheme continues to be:

  • unanimously recommended by the Saracen Board, subject to no superior proposal emerging for Saracen and the Independent Expert concluding (and continuing to conclude) that the Scheme is in the best interests of Saracen shareholders; and
  • unanimously endorsed and supported by the Northern Star Board, subject to no superior proposal for Northern Star emerging.

Saracen and Northern Star will continue to update Shareholders about material developments in relation to the Scheme.  Saracen shareholders do not need to take any action at this time.

Authorised for release to the ASX by Bill Beament, Executive Chair (NST) and Raleigh Finlayson, Managing Director (SAR).

[I hold both NST and SAR shares.]

Also:  25-Nov-2020:  NST AGM Presentation   and   Chair's AGM Address

I note that the steep falls in the NST share price appear to have stopped with today's rise, however they still look like very attractive buying at sub-$13/share.  They were trading at $16.84 only 17 days ago (their closing price on Monday 9-Nov-2020 was $16.84).  At $12.91, where they are trading right now, as I type this, they are 23% below that level.

#Excellent Bull Case
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Added 4 years ago

17th August 2020:  Dumile Capital ("Growth is Value"): Northern Star Resources – Do Better than Buffett

Thanks to Chagsy for bringing this excellent write-up on NST by Dumile Capital to our attention over in the "Gold as an investment" forum.

[I hold NST shares.  I also hold SAR shares.  SAR & NST are due to merge early in the new year (CY: 2021) after a Saracen (SAR) shareholder vote.]

This article centres around Berkshire Hathaway's recent smallish investment (for them) in Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD), one of the world's two largest listed gold producers (second largest gold company by market cap, and largest by EV when the article was written in August 2020).  I'm 99% convinced that it was NOT Warren Buffett who made that investment decision, as I've mentioned elsewhere here previously and as this article suggests early on.  WB has entrusted much of the Berkshire Hathaway (BH) everyday investment management decisions to his investment lieutenants,Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, as explained in this September 2020 article on BH's $US570 million bet on Snowflake (at IPO). 

As with WB's aversion to gold, he also actively avoids early-stage technology companies, yet Berkshire is now getting in on such tech companies at IPO, and investing US$564m in Barrick Gold (20.9m x NYSE:GOLD)

Berkshire also recently (as in - in the past few years) invested in the USA's four largest airlines, something that NOBODY would have reasonably expected after reading ANY of Warren's comments on airlines, particularly that anybody who had shot the Wright brother's first successful plane flight out of the sky would have been doing future investors a huge service.  Then Berkshire exited all of them (sold out of all 4 airlines) near their lows earlier this year - a move which significantly contributed to Berkshire posting a $US49.7 billion loss for the quarter ending March 31, 2020.

However, back to this Dumile Capital article on NST.  Here is the best bit:

Northern Star Resources ($NST.ax), perhaps the industry’s biggest success story of the past decade, has achieved staggering returns for shareholders by executing a totally different approach. The stock’s 10-year return now stands at +15,755% (+66% annualized, not including dividends), while physical gold has risen 56% (4.5% CAGR), and Barrick has registered a cumulative loss of -42% (maybe a bit better if you add up dividends).

Northern Star has built its entire business around acquiring mispriced end-of-life assets from bloated operators like Barrick and making prudent capital investments to unleash the assets’ full potential by lowering extraction costs and extending their mine lives. The meteoric rise of NST highlights the utmost importance of management quality in a commoditized industry, as the major drivers of returns on capital are management decisions around mine transactions, operations, and gold hedging activities.

Former CEO and current Chairman Bill Beament was instrumental in formulating NST’s business model. Beament’s background as an underground mining engineer gave him a unique advantage to spot value where others couldn’t. With the support of a senior management team built with a focus on underground mining expertise, the Company has demonstrated that their ability to buy non-core “tired, unloved assets” from other companies and quickly turn them around into major performers that have a significant impact on NST shareholder value is not just a matter of getting lucky, but rather a repeatable process.

--- end of excerpt ---

I highly recommend reading the ENTIRE article - which includes Jundee as a good example of the NST model at work.  As I always mention, I hold NST, and they are my favourite gold producing company, so my opinion is likely biased towards them, however you can NOT argue against their outstanding total shareholder return numbers over so many different timeframes.  Bill Beament has done very well out of NST, no question, but so has every other NST shareholder who has held the stock for any decent length of time.

#Quarterly Reports
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Last edited 4 years ago

27-Oct-2020:  September 2020 Quarterly Activities Report

To view that report without the ASX's "FOR PERSONAL USE ONLY" obscuring the text, you can download it directly from the NST website, however they haven't uploaded it to the site yet (as I type this) - when they do, you will see it appear here:

https://www.nsrltd.com/investor-media/reports/quarterly-reports/

STRONG QUARTER WITH PRODUCTION AT UPPER END OF GUIDANCE

Production on track to rise 40% over next three years with costs to fall 10%

Gold sales of 227,532oz at upper end of quarterly production guidance; All-in cost of A$1,752/oz and average realised price of A$2,493/oz; Hedge book reduced to just 13% of next three years’ production

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Gold sold in the September quarter of 227,532oz; This was at the upper end of the published quarterly guidance range of 207,000-233,000oz
  • Outstanding performance at Yandal and Pogo:
    • Australian Operations (including 50% KCGM) sold 176,526oz at an AISC of A$1,544/oz (US$1,081/oz)
    • Pogo Operations sold 51,006oz at an AISC of US$1,199/oz, quarterly costs were 14.5% lower than FY20
  • Group all-in cost (AIC) of A$1,752/oz (US$1,226/oz), demonstrating low capital intensity for growth
  • Average realised price of A$2,493/oz in the September quarter; This included sales of ~65,000oz into hedged positions, reducing the hedge book to approximately 13% of the next three years’ production
  • Strong underlying free cash flow of A$132M generated during September quarter; This was despite investing ~A$42M in growth capital and exploration
  • Unaudited NPAT of ~A$100M; Operating mine cashflow of A$254M; Net mine cashflow of A$170M
  • Cash, bullion and investments of A$470M at 30 September 2020 after repaying A$200M of corporate bank debt on 6 July and paying out A$200M (or A27cps) in fully franked dividends in the quarter
  • September quarter production:
    • Yandal Gold Operations: - 79,946oz mined and 73,743oz sold at an AISC A$1,209/oz (US$846/oz)
    • KCGM Gold Operations (50% Ownership): - 46,018oz mined and 53,959oz sold at an AISC A$1,461/oz (US$1,023/oz)
    • Kalgoorlie Gold Operations: - 64,064oz mined and 48,824oz sold at an AISC A$2,116/oz (US$1,481/oz)
    • Pogo Gold Operations: - 59,988oz mined and 51,006oz sold at an AISC US$1,199/oz
  • Annual production forecast to grow at industry-leading rate of 40% to 1.25Moz over next three years, with low capital intensity; Costs expected to fall by 10%
  • Reserves double to 10.8Moz (on price of A$1,750/oz (US$1,225/oz)); Resources increase 67% to 31.8Moz
  • Strong September quarter results from Northern Star and Saracen (ASX: SAR) highlight the outstanding combined growth profile and cash generating capacity of the companies under the proposed merger
  • Northern Star will host a quarterly conference call today, 27 October 2020, at 11:00am AEDT (8:00am AWST). The call can be accessed at https://webcast.boardroom.media/northern-star-resourcesltd/20201027/NaN5f8e63ecd7fcb30019896f4c

Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) is pleased to report strong operating and financial results for the September quarter, 2020.

Gold sales of 227,532oz were comfortably in line with the Company’s published guidance for the quarter of 207,000oz – 233,000oz (22% of the annual guidance of 940,000oz – 1,060,000oz).

This strong operating performance, including all-in costs of A$1,752/oz, was complemented by an average realised price of A$2,493/oz. This resulted in robust margins which in turn led to underlying free cashflow of A$132 million after investing A$42 million in growth capital and exploration.

Northern Star finished the quarter with cash, bullion and investments of A$470 million and corporate debt of A$500 million compared with A$770 million and A$700 million respectively at June 30. During the September quarter, the Company repaid A$200 million in debt and paid fully franked dividends totalling A$200 million, or A27¢ a share. These comprised the postponed interim dividend, the final dividend and the special dividend.

The Company also continued to reduce its hedge book, which now represents just 13 per cent of forecast production for the next three years, as part of the ongoing strategy to increase its exposure to the significantly higher spot price.

Northern Star Executive Chair Bill Beament said the results highlighted the ongoing strength of the Yandal Operations, the successful ramp-up of production at Pogo and further benefits from the changes being implemented at KCGM.

“Jundee is simply one of the great gold mines of Australia, as shown by sales of more than 73,000oz in the quarter at an AISC of A$1,209/oz,” Mr Beament said.

“We are also delighted with the results at Pogo, which continued to improve on every metric as the benefits of the new bulk mining method and other changes we have introduced flow through. Costs for the quarter are 14.5 per cent lower than in FY20 and the project is generating strong free cashflow.

“Our changes with Joint Venture partner Saracen at KCGM are also paying dividends, with costs beating guidance.”

Mr Beament said the results at the Kalgoorlie Operations reflected mine sequencing which resulted in lower grades and reduced overall tonnages. Gold sales were also reduced due to a planned roaster shutdown. However, this increased the inventory of concentrate, which will be poured in the current quarter.

“Overall, we expect to increase production at the Kalgoorlie Operations each quarter this year and ultimately meet our full year guidance there.”

Northern Star’s production is set to rise by 40 per cent over the next three years to 1.25Moz and costs are forecast to fall by 10 per cent.

“We have one of the strongest growth profiles in the global gold industry and we will achieve this with one of lowest capital intensities in the global gold industry,” Mr Beament said.  “This combination enables us to deliver strong growth in production and free cashflow while maintaining our superior financial returns.”

Mr Beament said Northern Star’s strong quarterly performance, combined with the excellent September quarterly results released by Saracen last week, provided further insight into the significant strengths of the proposed merged group.

“Both companies have again demonstrated the tier-1 quality of our assets,” he said. “Our combined production is growing to 2Moz a year by FY27 while most of our peers have a falling production profile. Our costs will continue to reduce and our combined scope for further organic growth in tier-1 locations is exceptional.” (*)

Notes:

  1. (*) Refer to the ASX release by Northern Star and Saracen entitled “Northern Star and Saracen agree to A$16B merger-of-equals” dated 6 October 2020 and available at www.nsrltd.com, www.saracen.com.au and www.asx.com.  The proposed merger is to be implemented by way of a Saracen scheme of arrangement (Scheme).  Key conditions of the Scheme include approval being obtained from Saracen shareholders in general meeting, scheduled to occur during January 2021.  Further information about the Scheme (including key risks for Saracen shareholders) will be provided by Saracen to Saracen shareholders and released to ASX in due course, in the form of an explanatory statement (as that term is defined in section 412 of the Corporations Act) and notice of meeting (Scheme Booklet).  The Scheme Booklet will also include or be accompanied by an independent expert's report that will opine on whether the Scheme is in the best interest of Saracen shareholders.

--- Click on the link at the top (one of them) for the full report ---

[I hold NST and SAR shares.]

#Company Presentations
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Added 4 years ago

12-Oct-2020:  NST + SAR joint Investor Presentation - Diggers & Dealers Conference, Kalgoorlie

The ASX's new website (launched today) had a few hiccups, and one of them is the way they're adding their "FOR PERSONAL USE ONLY" watermark to the left edge of all ASX announcements by everybody.  They are covering up text and making announcements hard to read, and when the announcement is a slideshow like this one, they don't even fit the watermark up the left hand edge - it just says "IAL USE ONLY" on each page instead.  Quite sub-par really.

Thankfully, the better companies also allow you to download these announcements directly from their own website.  NST are one of these better companies, and the announcement (their joint NST+SAR Diggers and Dealers Company Presentation) - without the annoying watermark - can be viewed by clicking on the following link:

https://www.nsrltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Investor-Presentation-Diggers-and-Dealers-12-10-2020.pdf

Because the two companies are merging, and the merged entity will be called "Northern Star Resources" and have the NST ticker code, I am not going to post straws under SAR (Saracen Mineral Holdings) as well as NST, just under NST from now on.

[NST and SAR are among the gold producers that I hold shares in.  NST has been my favourite ASX-listed gold producer for the past five years - and I've done VERY well out of them.  This merger will only make them even bigger, even more relevant, and better.  They are going to be on a lot more overseas investors' radars now as well, which isn't a bad thing, because their fundamentals, when compared to other large global gold miners, look excellent.  Bill Beament has always run NST as a business first, and a miner second.  Sustainable and growing profitability and way above average total shareholder returns have been a feature of NST for the past 5 or 6 years.  NST compares very well with the vast majority of other ASX-listed companies, not just gold producers.  Northern Star has been a consistent outperformer.]

 

#NST/SAR KCGM Presentation
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Added 4 years ago

09-Oct-2020:  KCGM Site Visit Presentation - Diggers & Dealers, October 2020, Kalgoorlie, WA.

[I hold both NST and SAR, who are 50/50 JV partners in KCGM - Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines, which owns the massive Kalgoorlie Super Pit - and NST & SAR are about to merge, and they have both been bid up significantly since that announcement on Tuesday (6-Oct-2020).  It came as no surprise to me, as I have been expecting this to occur since they became JV partners in KCGM.]

#NST & SAR to merge
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Added 4 years ago

06-Oct-2020:  Presentation - SAR and NST agree to Merger of Equals

plus:  Saracen and Northern Star agree to Merger of Equals

and:  Saracen AGM Presentation - "There's nothing like Tier 1 Gold"

Transaction rationale

The scale and liquidity to attract both gold and generalist investors.

  • Top-10 global gold miner with sector-leading production growth; pathway to 2Mozpa 
  • Size and liquidity to attract generalist as well as gold-focused global investors and Australian large cap funds
  • Increased investor relevance and capital markets presence
  • One of the few global gold companies of this scale with operations exclusively in Tier-1 jurisdictions
  • Long-life producer with over 19Moz in Reserves and 49Moz in Resources
  • Combined market capitalisation of ~A$16.0 billion with strong global share register
  • Strong balance sheet with pro-forma net cash of A$118 million (as of 30 June 2020)
  • Strengthened platform to capitalise on accretive M&A opportunities.

A compelling combination - Takeaways

A unique opportunity exclusively available for both companies to unlock significant value, and build a major global gold producer with an exceptional high-margin growth profile.

Benefits to Northern Star shareholders

  • Exposure to high-quality, de-risked operations and infrastructure at Thunderbox and Carosue
  • Saracen’s open pit expertise.

Benefits to Saracen shareholders

  • Stronger near-term cash flows
  • Exposure to growth and North American platform through Pogo
  • Northern Star’s underground expertise.

Benefits to both sets of shareholders

  • Top-10 global producer, with 19Moz in Reserves and 49Moz in Resources
  • Complementary Board and management teams to drive growth and continued sector-leading returns
  • Diversification of production and cash flows across a number of high quality, low-risk Tier-1 jurisdictions
  • Transaction unlocks A$1.5-2.0B NPV in pre-tax synergies to be delivered via geographic, operational, and strategic synergies
  • Leading approach to environmental, social and governance principles and practices
  • Consolidation of ownership at KCGM for the first time [NST & SAR own KCGM 50/50 - which includes the Kalgoorlie Super Pit]
  • Dominant position in greater Kalgoorlie district, targeting 1.1Mozpa in production
  • Rationalised ownership of the Yandal belt, spanning Jundee, Bronzewing and Thunderbox
  • Significant organic growth pipeline across a merged portfolio with enviable geological endowment
  • Enhanced financial strength and flexibility to pursue accretive M&A
  • Increased investor relevance and capital markets profile

--- click on links above for more ---  [and there is a lot more]

[I hold both NST & SAR shares, and I flagged this merger as a possibility last year and again earlier this year after the two companies became JV partners in KCGM - i.e. the Kalgoorlie Super Pit.  It just makes sense.  Very positive IMO.]

#Company Presentations
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Added 4 years ago
#Company Presentations
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Added 4 years ago

22-Sep-2020:  Investor Presentation - Gold Forum Americas 2020   ("An Australian Gold Miner, For Global Investors")

[I hold NST shares.]

#Results
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Last edited 4 years ago

19-Aug-2020:  FY2020 Financial Results   and   FY2020 Financial Results Presentation

plus   2020 Annual Report to Shareholders   and   Appendix 4E

NORTHERN STAR DECLARES SPECIAL DIVIDEND AS UNDERLYING NPAT SOARS 69% TO A$291.0M

Final dividend of 9.5¢ plus special dividend of 10¢, both fully-franked

Northern Star set for more significant growth in cashflow on back of leveraged exposure to gold price, increasing production to ~1.3Mozpa and Resources of 31.8Moz in Tier-1 locations

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Record underlying net profit after tax up 69% to A$291.0 million (FY19: A$171.9 million)
  • Record statutory net profit after tax up 67% to A$258.3 million (FY19: A$154.7 million)
  • Underlying free cashflow surged 190% to A$423.1M, up by A$277.3M, on averaged realised gold price of A$2,208/oz; free cashflow yield forecast to increase further given spot price is now A$2,750/oz
  • Group EBITDA up 55% to record A$745.4 million (FY19: A$479.7 million); Australian operations achieved an EBITDA margin of 49%; Pogo achieved an EBITDA margin of 22%, up from 7% in FY19
  • Operating mine cash flow up 53% to record A$901.6 million (FY19: A$587.6 million1 ); Net mine cash flow up 54% to A$559.2 million (FY19: A$362.0 million1 )
  • A$769.5 million in cash, bullion and investments at 30 June 2020 (30 June 2019: A$361.4 million) after investing A$1.3B in acquisition and growth comprising A$1.1B for a 50% interest in KCGM and associated assets, A$177.7M in takeover of Echo Resources and A$206M in growth capital/exploration
  • FY20 final fully-franked dividend increased 27% to A9.5¢ per share (FY19: A7.5¢ per share), taking fullyear payout to A17¢ per share. Plus, special fully-franked dividend of A10¢ per share
  • Industry-leading financial returns sustained: FY2020 average return on equity of 21% when normalised for the transformational KCGM acquisition
  • Total Resources increased by 67% (12.7Moz) to 31.8Moz (after depletion of 912,000oz), Resources per share have grown by +179% over past five years; Importantly, Measured and Indicated Resources increased 94% to 20.8Moz, underpinning replacement of Reserves in coming years
  • Group Reserves increased by 102% (5.5Moz) to 10.8Moz (after depletion of 912,000oz); Results underpin strong growth in forecast production and long mine life visibility, Reserves per share have grown by 348% over the past five years (despite production of 3.6Moz)
  • Northern Star Shareholders now benefit from the second-biggest ASX-listed production profile underpinned by this world-class mineral inventory, significant leverage to gold price, a clear pathway to annual production of 1.3Moz and one of the lowest capital intensities in the industry
  • Northern Star will host the full year results call today, 19 August 2020 at 8.30am AWST (10:30am AEST); The call can be accessed at https://webcast.boardroom.media/northern-star-resourcesltd/20200819/NaN5f34ebbc59132c0019f81c9b

--- click on links above for more ---

[I hold NST - they are the best run gold mining company in Australia, and probably globally.]

 

#Production Guidance / Reserves
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Last edited 4 years ago

18-Aug-2020:  KCGM Reserves grow to 9.7Moz, output rising to plus 675kozpa

Also:  Resource Reserve and Guidance Update including KCGM

Resources and Reserves, Production and Cost Guidance Update (inc KCGM)

RESERVES DOUBLE TO 10.8MOZ, UNDERPINNING ~40% INCREASE IN PRODUCTION AND 10% FALL IN COSTS

FY21 production guidance is 940koz-1,060koz; Production forecast to rise to ~1.15Moz in FY22, ~1.25Moz in FY23 and ~1.3Moz by FY27; AISC to fall 10% over next 2 to 3 years; Resources increase by 12.7Moz, underwriting longer mine lives and increased cashflow

HIGHLIGHTS

Resources at June 30, 2020

  • Group Resources increased by 67% (12.7Moz) to 31.8Moz (after depletion of 912,000oz and acquisitions of KCGM and the Bronzewing Project); Resources per share have grown by +179% over the past five years
  • Importantly, Measured and Indicated Resources increased 94% to 20.8Moz; This underpins continued replacement of Reserves in coming years
  • Increased inventory will underpin further organic production growth, longer mine lives and cashflow
  • Resources breakdown: KCGM at 9.6Moz
    • All other assets up 3.2Moz to 22.3Moz

Reserves at June 30, 2020

  • Group Reserves increased 102%, or 5.5Moz, to 10.8Moz (after depletion of 912,000oz); Results underpin strong growth in forecast production and long mine life visibility
  • Reserves per share have grown by 348% over the past five years (despite production of 3.6Moz)
  • Reserves are calculated conservatively using an assumed gold price of A$1,750/oz and US$1,350/oz compared with the current spot price of ~A$2,700/oz (US$1,940/oz)
  • Reserves breakdown: KCGM at 4.85Moz
    • All other assets up 12%, or 600,000oz, to 6Moz
  • Considerable opportunity to further grow Reserves with conversion of the 31.8Moz Resource base

Guidance

  • FY21 production guidance for Australian operations is 760,000-840,000oz at AISC of A$1,440-A$1,540/oz (US$1,035-US$1,107/oz)
    • KCGM (50%) 220,000-240,000oz at A$1,470-A$1,570/oz (US$1,057-US$1,129/oz)
    • Jundee Operations 270,000-300,000oz at A$1,200-A$1,275/oz (US$863-US$917/oz)
    • Kalgoorlie Operations 270,000-300,000oz at A$1,650-A$1,750/oz (US$1,186-US$1,258/oz)
  • FY21 production guidance for Pogo is 180,000-220,000oz at AISC of US$1,200-US$1,400/oz; Guidance takes into account the impact of COVID-19 on operational restrictions
  • FY21 expansionary capital budget of A$198M, comprising:
    • A$99M at KCGM, majority associated with pit cutbacks to de-risk operation and provide multiple mining fronts
    • A$99M for all other assets (ex-KCGM)

Exploration and Production Growth

  • A$101M is budgeted for exploration in FY21 as part of the strategy for ongoing growth in production, mine lives and cashflow; Includes; Pogo A$21M, Jundee A$28M, Kalgoorlie $A35M, Regional A$11M, KCGM (50%) A$6M
  • Northern Star’s total production is forecast to rise to ~1.15Moz in FY22, ~1.25Moz in FY23 and ~1.3Moz by FY27; AISC forecast to fall by 10% to ~<US$1,000/oz over next two to three years due mainly to the increased production base.
  • In FY22, the additional capital required to achieve the 1.25Mozpa run rate is only A$300M, Non-sustaining capital drops away significantly after then.

--- click on links above for the full reports ---

[I hold NST shares}

#Guidance Update
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13-August-2020:  Resources & Reserves, and Guidance Update (ex-KCGM)

PRODUCTION SET TO INCREASE 30% OVER NEXT TWO YEARS AND COSTS TO FALL 10%

FY21 production guidance (ex-KCGM) is 720koz-820koz; Production (ex-KCGM) is forecast to rise to ~900koz in FY22 and ~1Moz in FY23, driving down AISC by 10%; Resources increase by 3.2Moz, underwriting longer mine lives and increased cashflow.

HIGHLIGHTS

Resources at June 30, 2020

  • Group Resources increased by 3.2Moz to 22.3Moz (after depletion of 912,000oz and acquisition of Bronzewing Project); Resources per share have grown by +120% over the past five years (ex-KCGM)
  • Importantly, Measured and Indicated Resources increased 29% to 13.8Moz; This underpins continued replacement of Reserves in coming years
  • Increased inventory will underpin further organic production growth, longer mine lives and cashflow
  • Resources breakdown:
    • Pogo up 13% to 6.7Moz at 9.8gpt; This is the largest Resource in Pogo’s history
    • Jundee up 16% to 5.3Moz, with a further 1.6Moz at Bronzewing to be included as part of the Yandal Operations
    • Kalgoorlie Operations at 6.8Moz
      • Kanowna up 16% to 2.2Moz, 100% Kundana at 1.2Moz, 51% Kundana at 1.0Moz, South Kalgoorlie at 1.9Moz
  • In FY20, NST acquired the 1.6Moz Bronzewing Project and agreed to divest the 1.6Moz Mt Olympus Project

Reserves at June 30, 2020

  • Group Reserves increased 12%, or 600,000oz, to 6Moz (after depletion of 912,000oz); Reserves per share have grown by 180% over the past five years (despite production of 3.6Moz)
  • Reserves are calculated conservatively using an assumed gold price of A$1,750/oz and US$1,350/oz compared with the current spot price of ~A$2,700/oz (US$1,940/oz)
  • Reserves breakdown:
    • Jundee up 25% to 2Moz (despite depletion of 379,500oz), with a further 800,000oz at Bronzewing to be included as part of the now consolidated Yandal Operations
    • Pogo Reserve of 1.5Moz (despite depletion of 200,700oz), grade up 7% to 8gpt, despite only drilling 62% of budgeted drill metres due to COVID-19 restrictions
    • Kalgoorlie reduced 25% to 1.6Moz (after depletion of 330,200oz); New estimate reflects a significant reduction in the Raleigh Reserve and a higher cost base used in the calculations
      • Kanowna at 700koz, 100% Kundana at 300koz, 51% Kundana at 400koz and South Kalgoorlie at 200koz
  • Considerable opportunity to further grow Reserves with conversion of the +22Moz Resource base

Guidance

  • FY21 production guidance for Australian operations (ex-KCGM) is 540,000-600,000oz at AISC of A$1,425- A$1,525/oz (US$1,025-US$1,096/oz)
    • Jundee Operations 270,000-300,000oz at A$1,200-A$1,275/oz (US$863-US$917/oz)
    • Kalgoorlie Operations 270,000-300,000oz at A$1,650-A$1,750/oz (US$1,186-US$1,258/oz)
  • FY21 production guidance for Pogo is 180,000-220,000oz at AISC of US$1,200-US$1,400/oz; Guidance takes into account the impact of COVID-19 on operational restrictions
  • FY21 expansionary capital budget of A$99M, comprising:
    • A$50M (US$35M) at Pogo, with most of this applied to increasing processing capacity to 1.3Mtpa
    • A$37M at Jundee, predominantly for surface infrastructure upgrades and bringing on new production areas
    • A$12M at Kalgoorlie Operations for capital works

--- click on the link at the top for the full announcement ---

[I hold NST - they are my #1 Australian Gold Producer pick, and have been for the past decade.]

#Quarterly Reports
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23-7-2020:  June 2020 Quarterly Activities Report

[I hold NST shares]

#Trading Update
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8-July-2020:  June Quarter Trading Update

This time last year, the massive Kalgoorlie Super Pit, which used to be the largest OP (open pit) gold mine in Australia (recently overtaken by Newmont's Boddington Gold Mine) was owned by the two largest gold mining companies in the world - Barrick and Newmont - via their JV company known as Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines - or KCGM.  However those two giants of the industry have now sold their respective shares of KCGM to Northern Star (NST) and Saracen (SAR), Australia's 2nd and 4th largest gold producers (70%+ in gold).  Both companies have updated the market this morning.  I have already posted a straw about Saracen's update, and briefly mentioned the further positive gold price movement overnight. 

This straw is about NST's update, which the market seems to be more excited about so far, mainly because Bill Beament seemed very cautious and worried about the impacts of COVID-19 when he last provided a comprehensive update (and deferred their interim dividend payment).  This wasn't as obvious in their announcement at the time, but was very clear during the associated conference call with analysts and shareholders which I (as an NST shareholder) participated in. 

My view at the time was that Bill was being very conservative and was positioning the company to be able to get through COVID was as little damage as possible, and that his position and attitude was an excellent response to a very fluid and uncertain situation.  NST got sold down to close to $10/share (during that first week of April), almost re-testing their March low.  I took the opportunity at that time to top up my NST positions (I hold them in all of my portfolios, including my super).  

Today we will likely see a decent relief rally in NST, because things weren't nearly as bad as Bill thought they might be, and he's brought forward that interim dividend payment now to next week.  I would expect NST to finish the day somewhere between $14.50 and $15.  I love it when a plan comes together.

NST:  June Quarter Trading Update

UNDERLYING FREE CASHFLOW OF A$217.9M FROM SALE OF 262,717 OUNCES

Postponed FY20 interim dividend of A7.5¢ to be paid on July 16, 2020

Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) advises that its cash, bullion and investments rose by 40% to A$769.5 million at June 30, 2020, up from A$551.4 million at March 31, 2020.

As a result, the Company’s balance sheet was net cash positive at June 30, 2020, with corporate bank debt of A$700 million.

Northern Star generated underlying free cashflow of A$217.9 million in the June quarter from the sale of 262,717oz. This took total sales for the 2020 financial year to 900,388oz while gold produced totalled 905,177oz. This was ~1.6% below the lower end of the FY20 guidance, which was withdrawn due to uncertainties stemming from COVID-19 (see ASX release dated March 26, 2020).

In light of this solid result, Northern Star will pay its FY20 fully-franked interim dividend of A7.5¢ a share on July 16. Payment of this dividend, which totals A$55 million, was postponed when the Company withdrew its guidance.

The Company expects to resume dividend payments in the ordinary course of business.

As part of its COVID-19 measures, Northern Star also drew down an additional A$200 million in debt in the March quarter. The Company has repaid that A$200 million on July 6, reducing its corporate bank debt to A$500 million.

In the June quarter, Northern Star reduced its hedge book to 536,426oz at A$2,085/oz (170,080oz, or 34% of ounces sold, in the June half came from hedged positions) as part of the Company’s strategy to increase its exposure to the spot price. Pushed-out hedged positions are being brought back and deliveries will continue to be accelerated in FY21. The Company has one of the smallest hedge books as a percentage of annualised production in the Australian gold industry, with just 15% of the next three years production committed.

Northern Star Executive Chair Bill Beament said the Company’s staff and business partners had done an outstanding job in very difficult circumstances. This enabled Northern Star to maintain the full employment of the Company’s workforce and business continuity for all stakeholders.

“The health and safety of our people and the communities in which we operate is always our first objective and the measures we adopted in response to COVID-19 reflected that,” Mr Beament said.

“As we foreshadowed at the time, these measures incurred additional costs, reduced productivities and restricted production.

“We also adopted a prudent approach to managing our balance sheet, as reflected in the decision to postpone the interim dividend and drawdown the additional debt.”

Mr Beament said that as well as protecting its people, these measures were aimed at maximising the Company’s ability to continue operating at all its sites throughout the pandemic.

“To generate quarterly free cashflow of A$217.9 million in these circumstances is an outstanding result which reflects the performance of our staff and business partners, our success in being able to operate continuously throughout the pandemic and the underlying strength of our assets,” he said.

“The results at our Pogo mine in Alaska were particularly pleasing given the challenging circumstances emanating from COVID-19 where we effectively managed safe operations with 36 confirmed cases through the quarter.

“Despite the considerable impacts of COVID-19 at Pogo, the underlying trend of rising production and productivity continued. This further demonstrates the huge potential of this asset in more conventional circumstances.

“The teams at our Jundee and Kalgoorlie Operations excelled and we made strong progress towards our goal of unlocking the significant upside at KCGM.”

--- click on the link at the top of this straw for the rest of this announcement ---   

[I hold NST shares]

#Ashburton Divestment
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Added 5 years ago

22-June-2020:  Northern Star Divests Ashburton Project

Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX: NST) advises that it has agreed to divest the Mt Olympus Project comprising most of the Ashburton Project in Western Australia to Kalamazoo Resources Limited (ASX: KZR) for a deferred contingent cash consideration of A$17.5 million.

The deferred cash consideration is as follows:

  • A$5 million on mining of the first 250,000 tonnes of Ore; and
  • a 2% Net Smelter Royalty (NSR) on the first 250,000oz of gold produced (worth an estimated A$12.5 million using the current spot gold price of A$2,500/oz), with a 0.75% NSR on any subsequent gold produced from the tenements; and
  • the same NSR’s will also apply on any other metals produced from the tenements.

Northern Star Executive Chair Bill Beament said: “The Ashburton Project no longer fits in Northern Star’s portfolio but still has strong potential on both the exploration and production fronts.  The royalty structure also enables Northern Star to retain an exposure to the project.”

Completion of the divestment is conditional on Ministerial approval and third party rights being observed.

--- ends ---

Disclosure:  I hold NST shares, but not KZR shares.

#Company Reports
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28-Apr-2020:  March 2020 Quarterly Activities Report

  • Gold sold in the March quarter of 239,031oz at an AISC of A$1,590/oz (US$1,047/oz) 
    • Australian operations (including KCGM) sold 190,258oz at an AISC of A$1,505/oz (US$991/oz) 
    • Pogo operations sold 48,773oz at an AISC of US$1,254/oz
  • Underlying free cash flow of A$89M for the quarter after investing ~A$66M in growth capital and exploration 
  • Cash, bullion and investments of A$551M at 31 March 2020 after completion of the KCGM acquisition and drawing A$200M from the corporate credit revolver facility; Corporate debt stands at A$700M 
  • Payment of A$55M interim dividend deferred to 27 October; The full-year dividend is expected to be paid as normal (same timeframe and equal to 6% of group revenue) 
  • March quarter production:
    • Jundee Gold Operations:
      • 75,099oz mined and 52,629oz sold at an AISC A$1,389/oz (US$915/oz)
    • KCGM Gold Operations (50%):
      • 41,662 oz mined and 60,204 oz sold at an AISC A$1,453/oz (US$957/oz) (NST’s half-share)
    • Kalgoorlie Gold Operations:
      • 77,067oz mined and 77,425oz sold at an AISC A$1,619/oz (US$1,066/oz)
    • Pogo Gold Operations:
      • 56,571oz mined and 48,773oz sold at an AISC A$1,904/oz (US$1,254/oz)
  • Strict COVID-19 related measures implemented early to protect the health and safety of our staff and local communities, and ensure that operations could continue and remain profitable in the short and medium term 
  • Some of the COVID-19 related measures resulted in temporary reductions in production and resulting increases in unit costs in the March quarter but paved the way for an expected improved performance in June quarter 
  • At Pogo, further progress made on underlying transition despite implementing stringent COVID-19 measures, with quarter-on-quarter improvements in both gold production and costs per ounce. This trend is expected to continue in the June quarter
  • At KCGM, strong operational progress is being made, with multiple open-pit mining fronts now being established, including the start of Brownhill Stage 1
  • At Jundee, the A$22M mill expansion to 2.7Mtpa is on track for commissioning in the June quarter
  • At Kalgoorlie Operations, the Moonbeam deposit starts production in the June quarter
  • Community COVID-19 fund established with committed funds of up to A$10M to assist local health services, communities and businesses
  • Northern Star will host a quarterly conference call today, 28 April 2020 at 9:30am AEST (7:30am AWST). The call can be accessed by clicking here: https://webcasting.boardroom.media/broadcast/5e8ac7b306242c47d80df317

--- click on link above for more ---

[Disclosure:  I hold NST shares in all of my portfolios]

#Pogo employee has COVID-19
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#COVID-19 Response/Update
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26-Mar-2020:  COVID-19, Guidance and Dividend Update

Northern Star, Australia's second largest listed gold producer, has withdrawn their previous production guidance admitting there have been disruptions to production at some of their mines and that there could well be further discruptions.  They have also deferred payment of their interim dividend until October.  That's something I've seen a number of companies do over recent days.  In this case however, it would appear that this was NOT priced in already, as NST are off over 11% so far today, while most of their peers (the larger ASX-listed gold miners) are up or down around 1% to 2% today.

#Company Presentations
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25-Sep-2018:  Article in MiningNews.Net - see here - "Upside at Pogo Immense: Beament"

More of the same.  "We're not doing anything different here guys," said Bill Beament, pointing at Northern Star's track record of deals - 10 in eight years which created A$5.3 billion of value in the process.

Beament said Pogo's status as a tier one underground operation in a tier one jurisdiction fit within Northern Star's DNA.

"No offence, but you're not going to see Northern Star rush off to places like Africa," he said.

"We like Australia, the US and Canada.

"[Pogo] gives us great exposure to a prolific mineral belt.

"There are many global majors fighting to get into this jurisdiction as we speak."

What excites Northern Star is the potential at Pogo - it was once a 300,000oz per annum producer and could well be again in the not-too-distant future.

The company sees similarities between Pogo and its world-class Jundee mine.

"The reserve cut-off grade is 8.3 grams per tonne gold, which is nearly four times the cut-off grade of Jundee," Beament said.

Jundee's break-even cut-off grade is 6.5gpt gold, which Beament said highlighted the huge potential at Pogo.

Current owner Sumitomo had set an US$18 million exploration budget for this calendar year.

The results are due shortly and Northern Star will announce an updated JORC-compliant resource for Pogo when it takes ownership next month.

Beament pointed out Pogo had one tenth of the drilling completed at Jundee.

"This is a spectacular orebody," he said.

Unlike some of the company's other assets, Beament said Pogo wasn't a requiring a full renovation.

"This ain't broken," he said.

"We don't have to invest nearly as much as we've had to with our other assets."

Northern Star already has 16 members of its team onsite ahead of the acquisition close next month.

"It's called planning and preparation, and we're well advanced," Beament said.


I hold NST shares.

#Company Presentations
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#Jan 2020 SPP Results
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03-Feb-2020:  Northern Star's SPP shares are being allocated today.  They haven't officially released an announcement regarding how they have scaled back applications, they've just said that the SPP was seriously oversubscribed.  I've just got off the phone with their SPP info line however and one of my accounts - that had just 50 NST shares in it (a marketable parcel, but not much more than that) received only 7 (yep, seven) new NST shares in this SPP.  Apparently they've gone with a pro-rata scale back to avoid unnecessary dilution with those who have larger shareholdings.  In other words, the smaller your NST holding was on the record date (December 16, 2019), the smaller your allocation will be.  Luckilly I have a larger holding in another account.  Unluckilly, that other account is an industry super fund and they don't allow you to participate in SPPs - they only allow you to participate in rights issues - when the rights can be traded on the ASX.  I'm a little bit pissed off - $9 SPP price, and NST trading at around $13 now, but they are free to scale their SPP back any way they want to, and they're clearly looking after those with decent shareholdings before those with much smaller ones here.  I still have reasonable exposure to the company via my CBUS SMSF, but I would still have liked to have received more than seven shares in my other (main trading) account!!

#Company Reports
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Added 5 years ago

29-Jan-2020:  December 2019 Quarterly Activities Report

and Pogo Q2 Operational Update

Also, NST's SPP to raise approximately A$50 million- that was part of the funding arrangements for their purchase of Newmont GoldCorp's 50% of KCGM (Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines - whose main asset is the Kalgoorlie Super Pit on the edge of the town of Kalgoorlie) - closed on Friday Jan 24, and I expect it was seriously oversubscribed since the offer price was $9 and NST's SP increased during the offer period from $10.33 to $12.59, closing at $12.59 on Friday.  They then closed at $13 yesterday (Jan 28).  I eagerly await details of how much they are going to scale back the applications because I applied for my full entitlement ($30K) and obviously the more I am allocated the better - seeing as they closed yesterday at 44.4% above the $9 offer price.

#M&A
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06-Dec-2019:  Northern Star Completes Takeover of Echo Resources

17-Dec-2019:  Northern Star to Acquire 50% of KCGM Super Pit

Also:  Investor Presentation - Acquisition of 50% KCGM Super Pit

24-Dec-2019:  Share Purchase Plan Offer Open and Offer Booklet

KCGM (Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines) WAS a JV between the world's two largest listed gold mining companies, Barrick Gold and Newmont GoldCorp, but Barrick recently sold their half to Saracen Minerals (ASX: SAR) and now Newmont have sold their half to Northern Star (ASX: NST).  The biggest and most well-known asset in the KCGM stable is of course the Kalgoorlie Super Pit (aka the Fimiston Open Pit Gold Mine) which sits right on the South-East edge of Kalgoorlie - the gold-mining capital of Australia.

Click Here to see the Kalgoorlie Super Pit

As part of the capital raising to help pay for this aquisition, NST is extending an SPP (share purchase plan) to existing shareholders (that already held NST shares at the time of the acquisition announcement).  Each eligible shareholder can apply to purchase up to $30K worth of NST shares at $9/share.  NST closed today (24-Dec-2019) at $10.79, being 19.9% above that $9 SPP price, so you'd expect it to be a popular one, and probably be scaled back, although Bill has said that they might accept applications for more than the initial $50m SPP target.

Disclosure:  I hold NST and have applied for my full $30K in this SPP.  I don't really expect to get all $30K (I do expect a scale back) but I'll be happy with whatever I do get.

#Company Presentations
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18 June 2019:  Company Presentation - London Roadshow

"An Australian gold miner - for global investors" - London Roadshow - June 2019

#ASX Announcements
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25-Oct-2018:  Northern Star September 2018 Quarterly Activities Report - see here

17-Oct-2019:  Northern Star September 2019 Quarterly Activities Report - see here.

They also released a Pogo Q1 Operation Update on the same day (17-Oct-2019).

NST are also in the process of taking over Echo Resources (ASX:EAR).

 

#Company Reports
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24-Apr-19:  March 2019 Quarterly Activities Report - which is subtitled, "Pogo hits inflexion point, paving way for record fourth quarter."

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Gold sold in the March quarter of 185,296oz at an AISC of A$1,369/oz (US$975/oz)
    • Australian operations sold 149,069oz at an AISC of A$1,200/oz (US$855/oz)
    • US operations sold 36,227oz at an AISC of A$2,062/oz (US$1,468/oz)
  • Pogo’s results reflect impact of significant changeover-related activity, including the late delivery of the new mobile underground mining fleet and the introduction of a new mining method, which limited production temporarily; This reduced production drove up the AISC per ounce
  • In the March quarter, monthly expenditure at Pogo fell ~20% to US$18.5M from an average of US$22.5M per month in the previous two quarters. Further cost reductions are anticipated  
  • Pogo is forecast to produce ~50,000oz in the June quarter  
  • Turnaround at Pogo and ongoing strong performance at Australian operations expected to deliver record group quarterly production in the June quarter; Rising trend demonstrated by the sale of 82,000oz of gold in the month of March
  • Operating cash flow of A$63M for the quarter; This is set to rise significantly in the June quarter
  • Cash and equivalents at 31 March of A$288M (A$292M at December 31) after investing A$44M in exploration and expansionary capex in the quarter; Northern Star has no bank debt
  • March quarter production:
    • Jundee Gold Operations: - 81,089oz mined and 67,420oz sold at an AISC A$1,021/oz (US$727/oz)
    • Kalgoorlie Gold Operations: - 84,492oz mined and 81,649oz sold at an AISC A$1,347/oz (US$959/oz)
    • Pogo Gold Operations: - 39,750oz mined and 36,227oz sold at an AISC A$2,062/oz (US$1,468/oz)
  • At Pogo, the new mining method of long-hole stoping commenced late in the quarter and represented only 11% of the quarter’s processed tonnes.  The April month to date figure has increased to 27% and the processed head grade has risen to over 8gpt; This is forecast to increase to a ~60/40% stoping to development ratio in the coming quarters
  • Five of the sixteen new pieces of underground mobile plant arrived on site in the March quarter; The balance is scheduled for delivery in the June quarter
  • Pogo is on track for a maiden JORC Reserve mid-year; Eight rigs are now operating underground and a further four rigs are operating on the surface
  • Outstanding results from Pogo Central Zone discovery, incl 1.5m at 48.6gpt, 1.3m at 33.2gpt, 5m at 13.9gpt; In-mine extensional drilling results incl 2.4m at 82.5gpt, 1.8m at 80.2gpt and 4.5m at 30gpt
  • Australian operations on track to meet the top end of FY2019 production guidance of 600,000640,000oz
  • At Jundee, open pit mining at Ramone commenced in February with ore to be processed this quarter; Regional exploration at Ramone has resulted in further discoveries at the nearby Ziggy and Marley prospects with results including 17m at 4.1gpt and 9m at 6.2gpt
  • Surface diamond drilling continues to confirm the underground potential of the Ramone system
  • Significant regional exploration success in the projected Zuleika Shear geological setting at South Kalgoorlie Operation with results including 1m at 246gpt and 1m at 28.6gpt.

 

Disclosure:  I hold NST shares.

 

 

#ASX Announcements
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16-Oct-2018:  Northern Star has released this announcement today titled, "Pogo Resource Update" in which they have increased the Pogo Resource estimate by 24% (or around 0.8 million ounces of gold).  

Highlights of the announcement:

  • Northern Star, in conjunction with independent mining consultants CSA Global, has completed a comprehensive re-estimation of the Pogo in-mine Resource; This estimate is JORC-2012 compliant
  • The JORC-compliant Resource estimate is now 8.8Mt at 14.7gpt for 4.15Moz, utilising a cut-off grade of 6.2gpt. This new estimate is in line with the non-JORC estimate stated in Northern Star’s ASX release of August 30, 2018 re the Pogo acquisition
  • The previously reported non-JORC estimate of 4.1Moz at 12.2gpt included 765,000oz in satellite deposits external to the main Pogo mine; These deposits have not been included in this new estimate
  • The new Resource estimate in the Pogo mine area of 4.15Moz has increased by 24% or by ~0.8Moz, predominantly through interpretation and remodelling of known mineralisation
  • This new Resource estimate will underpin mine planning and operational optimisation at Pogo
  • Northern Star assumed management control of the Pogo operation on 28 September 2018
  • A$15-20 million budgeted for exploration and drilling at Pogo for FY2019
  • Central Tanami Project: As announced on 19 September 2018, Northern Star has increased equity ownership of the Central Tanami Project (CTP) to 40% via a $20M option exercise.  Equity Resources in the CTP now total 12.3Mt @ 2.8gpt for 1.1Moz
  • Following the Pogo Resource and the increased CTP ownership, Northern Star’s Group Resources stand at 188Mt @ 3.4gpt for 20.5Moz
  • A revised JORC-compliant Ore Reserve estimate will be published following closure of FY2019 in line with Northern Star’s policy

NST also released another Investor Presentation on October 3rd - see here

NST also released a Pogo Site Visit Presentation Pack on September 28th (the site visit by analysts was on the 27th September) - see here

They also announced on October 1 that they had completed the Pogo acquisition - see here


Disclosure:  I hold NST shares.

#Bull Case
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30 August 2018:  Northern Star is the best managed gold miner listed on the ASX.  I have presented a pretty good bull case for NST over in an "Industry/Competitors" straw for Evolution Mining (EVN).

EVN is the second largest (after Newcrest - NCM) and EVN are also the lowest cost producer of the top 3.  NST are the second lowest cost producer, and the third largest, but they are the best run.

I hold both NST and EVN in my super, and also in my main trading / income portfolio.  They do both pay dividends, but they're not income stocks.  I like to hold some gold for insurance.  Or a hedge if you prefer.  If we get a crash, there's a better than even chance that gold goes up while share markets are falling fast, and Australia's biggest three gold producers will do well in that scenario.  Meanwhile, both EVN and NST have exhibited excellent growth over multiple time frames.  Here are the latest TSR numbers for NST, based on today's share price of $6.96 (on August 30th 2018):

  • 34.5% over 1 year (these numbers include dividends plus capital growth);
  • 54.2% per year over 3 years;
  • 51.1% per year over 5 years; and
  • 63.3% per year over 10 years.

[From Commsec]

It's hard to find another ASX100 company that has provided those sort of returns consistently over the last 10 years.

They announced an aquisition this morning - of the Pogo gold mine in Alaska:

NST announcement 30 August 2018 of acquisition of Pogo Gold Mine in Alaska

Investor Presentation - Pogo Acquisition

I haven't looked at this in detail yet, but Bill Beament is a very smart operator, and I think he's probably found something pretty good to buy here - at a good price. He has a track record of seeing value in run-down gold operations and then turning them around.  One thing is for sure - this announcement will put NST firmly back in the spotlight again.  

 

Image result for image of Northern Star Resources

FY18 Results

FY18 Results Presentation

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Image result for image of Northern Star Resources

Image result for image of Northern Star Resources

Image result for image of Northern Star Resources

Image result for image of Northern Star Resources

Image result for image of Northern Star Resources


Disclosure:  I hold NST shares.


14-Oct-2018: Update: Since the Pogo acquisition announcement, Northern Star has had a higher share price which has raised their market capitalisation, making them the second largest ASX-listed pure-play gold producer, behind Newcrest Mining (NCM).  Evolution Mining (EVN) has been bumped down to the #3 position now.   Bill Beament (the top man at NST) has been itching to regain this #2 position ever since EVN took it off them a couple of years ago, and Bill's achieved that now.  Pogo looks like a good fit for NST and the market likes this move.