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I have a totally embarassing question to ask help on. Can anyone point me to a writeup or diagram which succintly describes what exactly the NWL platform does/manages/provides??
I have poked around Google, the NWL site, went through the Annual Report, looked at the marketing videos, read some of the PDS' but I am still struggling to clearly understand the products and services that are offered on the NWL platform. While some of the content talks about the capability and scope of the product, there is a lot of sales-y speak overlayed and a lot of ghee whizz "IT platform/reporting/data benefits" but I am still struggling to clearly understand what each product actually does for a customer or an wealth advisor. The products I have understood thus far, which is half-coherent:
I am actually thinking of ringing NWL tomm and booking a demo and asking them to help me understand the platform.
For context, NWL has been a complete coffee-can investment for me. I bought the position based on the MFPro 1 recommendation back in 2018 and other than happily collecting dividends, have done absolutely nothing on NWL. That blind faith in old Joe and Matt was not misplaced, as by then, they were a proven winning team, and I had no doubt that they had done the detailed research to come up with a long-term winner.
NWL has now become my 2nd largest position (after the ALU sale, AD8 crash etc), returning 182%, proving that there absolutely IS merit in the coffee-can approach and that the less one tinkers with a position, the better the outcome.
Any help would be much appreciated!
Disc: Held IRL with total ignorance ...
A good result was reported today for FY24, but the market reaction was strangely negative, with the share price down nearly 6%.
Funds Under Administration (FUA) of $88.0 billion, up 25.2% year on year - compared to growth in prior years of 26% (2023), 18% (2022) and 30% (2021). So still a pretty healthy growth trajectory.
Funds Under Management (FUM) of $20.5 billion, up 28% year on year - compared to growth in prior years of 22% (2023), 12% (2022) and 60% (2021).
Market share has increased to 7.7% (up 0.9% from prior year).
Possibly the muted reaction is due to the evidence that HUB24 is starting to catch up with Netweatlh. This is the first time in my memory that Netwealth did not achieve the number 1 spot for largest net funds flow during the year. They achieved $10.4 billion compared to HUB24 with $12.9 billion. And although HUB24's market share at 7.3% is still slightly less than Netwealth's, it increased by 1.2% this year. This shows Netwealth is not gaining market share as quickly as HUB24.
However my high conviction in Netwealth remains unshaken - they have an excellent track record of innovation, they understand their market intimately and the transition of leadership from Michael Heine to his son Matt, after several years as joint CEOs, has been faultless.
I might have considered an each way bet by investing in HUB24, but I note that another of my RL portfolio companies Bailador has recently invested in Dash, yet another company with a wealth management platform targeted at financial advisers, so I think 2 fingers in the wealth management pie is enough for me.
Very strong results from Netwealth for the H1 to Dec 31st 2023 showing the fly wheel effect with an acceleration of revenue and most importantly widening margins as they reap the benefits of growing portfolios as markets finished 2023 on a high.
Key take outs
Priced to perfection at 50x forward earnings so one to watch as movements in SP present opportunity to enter or top up on existing holdings.
Disc - Held in RL, not on SM.
Update (20/02/2024)
Using similar assumptions as below but inputting a 25% growth for FY24 gives a valuation of around $15.
Disc: Held IRL, not held on Strawman.
Update (19/08/2023)
Updating my valuation based on FY23 results. NWL has seen strong NPAT growth since IPO with CAGR of 21.6%.
Being a bit more conservative with ongoing growth, if we assume 15% NPAT growth for the next 5 years and a terminal PE of 40x, then to achieve a 10% return, the valuation would be $13.76.
Historically NWL has traded on a PE range of between 45x and 80x, so a terminal PE of 40x could be seen as reasonable if they can continue to maintain their growth. However given the current high multiple, dropping the terminal PE to 30x would see the valuation fall to $10.32.
Given the long track record of management's ability to grow their business and FUM. I will give them the benefit of doubt that they can continue to grow the bottom line at a good rate.
For reference, the current share price of around $15.00 would require a CAGR of around 20% for 5 years and a terminal PE of 35x.
Disc: Held IRL. Not held Strawman.
Original Valuation
Netwealth is a business which provides a platform for wealth management. It was founded by the Heine family who continue to manage and be majority shareholders of the business.
NWL have grown NPAT by around 20% in the last 4 years since listing. Applying a long term 20% growth to NPAT for 5 years:
If we apply a PE of 45x that gives a price target of $21.64 and discounting back 10% a year becomes $14.77
A more bear case of 35x gives a valuation of $11.49 after discounting
A more bull case of 55x gives a valuation of $18.06 after discounting
The above does not take into account the current takeover offer for Praemium which may disrupt the calculations.
Disc: Not held but may look to buy if there is further weakness in the coming few weeks. I would likely look to entry between my valuation and my bear case for more margin of safety.
Netwealth reported 1H FY24 results this morning. From their presentation:
Personally, I thought this was a great result for Netwealth. Operating leverage really starting to come through. It seems the increased investment in their platform that occurred in FY22 and FY23 is starting to show through now.
Still plenty of growth potential as shown by this graph from their presentation:
When will the growth start to taper off? Hard to say at the moment but until then I think the thesis remains intact.
Will update my valuation later.
Full presentation here
Disc: Held IRL and on Strawman.
Netwealth released their FY23 results yesterday. From their presentation:
I thought this was a pretty solid result with a return to bottom line growth of over 20%. They are taking advantage of a structural shift away from the legacy funds management platforms. Still only a 6.7% market share currently.
Disc: Held IRL. Not held on Strawman.
Market didn't like the quarterly update released today.
While FUA increased 14% to 8.2B, growth is slowing. This is now the second quarter in a row of shrinking net inflows (and down 37% on PCP).
Next comp NWL may fare better as market movement hadn't yet bottomed in the Mar-22 quarter (and hopefully outflows peaked in Dec and continue to reduce from here).
Disc. held IRL.
Nice half year results for Netwealth
Revenue 102.8 million up 18.9%
EBITDA 46.2 million up 10%, margins 44.9% (down on 2021 48.6% due to investing within)
NPAT 30.6million up 11.4%
EPS 12.4c up 11.7%
DPS 11c up 10%
Cash on hand 98.8million up 15.2% . No debt.
High insider ownership and high conviction in the strategy
With the theme of the current reporting season across the globe being on cost control and in United States job losses Netwealth is definately bucking the trend and investing in more people whom drive technology improvements to the business to enable them to maintain their growth and innovation as an organisation.
These investments can be seen in the staff headcount and costs which grew to 542 up 27 in the half and up to $38.1million or 22.8%. The heads that were added 19 were technology orientated. Add to this the spend in IT which grew by 97% to 6.7million on the half as Netwealth moved to migrate to cloud, upgrade workflow and enhance security.
Free cash flow grew by 9.4% to 47.66 million for the half.
Although expensive when measuring on traditional means ie PE at over 50 there's alot to like.
Happy holder in RL not on SM
Netwealth (NWL) released their results for 1H 2023 this morning. From their presentation:
Good to see them back on the growth trajectory after several years of investment into their platform.
Management have stated that they believe the investment phase is over and they should start to see some operating leverage kick in.
First time that they have hit over $100m in revenue in a half. Benefitted from increasing interest rates.
From a market share perspective, they are at about 6.3% of the total market share with plenty still to be gained from the top 4 large institutions.
Full presentation here
Half year report here
Disc: Held IRL, not held on Strawman.
Article on FUM flows - Super industry flows: AustralianSuper, HUB24 lead the way - Professional Planner
Netwealth released Dec 2022 quarter inflows and fair to say a mixed bag.
Short term there are some points to keep an eye on in terms of growth of inflows.
Long term the move to recruit and attract key personnel in IT / communication services and Sales and Marketing is contrary to industry trends but clearly earmarked to maintain the advantage NWL have in the industry. This also reflects the financial strength the business upholds and confidence in the future.
Netwealth is aiming for inflows to financial year 2023 to be 11billion and is optimistic on new licenses which are set to convert in the current half.
Additionally the piloting of multi asset portfolio service as well as Xeppo (mobile integration) will further assist.
Overall Netwealth is a long term hold for me for the following reasons:
Along with HUB24 was able to purchase stock at single figures in real life pre 2020 and look forward to standing aside and allow compounding to do its thing .....
NWL December-2022-Quarterly-Business-Update.pdf
Netwealth is still sitting on a hefty PE of over 50 but their growth trajectory is still heading in the right direction. There were Funds under management net inflows of $2.9B for the September quarter which I think is strong given current market volatility. Total FUA is now at $58.1B. Their mobile integration with Xeppo is due to be launched in Q2 of 2023 which will hopefully provide a kick along to grabbing further market share from the big boys.
Netwealth have provided the market with their full year results and the depressed share price on offer earlier in the year looked to have been a solid opportunity to get into a nicely growing business at an attractive price. You can find their announcement here but the graphs that really standout for me are below. Rated number 6 in the industry by market share with 5.8% but tops with net fund inflows means their is still plenty or runway for growth (also highlights how well HUB24 are travelling too).
Netwealth continues to grow funds under administration at the fastest rate in Australia. Feel like this stock deserves its premium (although I note it’s PE of 59 according to yahoo finance). Other thoughts?
I had this company on my watchlist for well over a year before I pulled the trigger when their share price was punished after their results announcement back in February. Give next month they will unveil their latest quarterly update, today I purchased my full allocation of shares IRL. Netwealth's market share sits at roughly 5-6% but their inflows sit comfortably higher than their current market share. There appears to be heavy investment back into the business (which I like for the long term) specifically around their launch of their app and once rolled out has a strong potential to supercharge growth.
I still am a little perplexed by the large pullback they suffered but if the next quarterly update surprised to the upside, which management have a history of doing, I don't believe the share price will be seeing these levels for quite some time. No debt, growing and a healthy little div of roughly 1.3% this is a business I'm comfortable having in my portfolio for some time.
Assumptions:
FY26 Revenue $320m
FY26 Expense $120m
FY26 NPAT: $200m
Giving 40 PE gives FY 26 price of $23.07 and discount back to today and comes to ~$15.10
Number of Shares on issue = 245m
Insider ownership roughly 50% ( Founder family operates the business )
Revenue = 124m ( FY20), 144.8 (FY21) 84.7m ( 1H FY22)
Expense = 61.2m (FY20), 67.6m (FY21), 44.9m (1H FY22)
EBIT = 62.7m (FY20) , 77.2 (FY21), 39.8m (1HFY22)
I thought 1H FY22 results were good and management flagged that they are investing in Technology, People and Infrastructure to support the growth they are getting and scale the business for future growth.
They are expensing all of this investment and hence profit is subdue for the half. The following graphs from the presentation show their investment in last year.
Buy investing in their technology and people they are making their product number 1 recently from number 2
and because of award-winning products and services they are disrupting the Top 4 institutions and also no.1 providers for net funds flows
The following chart shows the growth and market share
How to hedge against increasing rates environment? Buy business that will benefit from rates increase.
Very solid results, received somewhat negatively by the market perhaps due to a modest decline in NPAT and EPS in this half compared to prior half. In the long term however - the only one that counts - the trajectory of revenue and NPAT continues inexorably from bottom left to top right. EPS growth is less impressive.
I admit to bias, since I have had part ownership in NWL for 3 years, I know the company extremely well, it has delivered me a 29% annual return and it has the maximum allocation I permit in my portfolio. It mystifies me why the company doesn't get more coverage by the analyst community. My confirmation bias is boosted by the fact NWL is also the largest holding in the Lakehouse Small Companies fund.
Netwealth is the biggest beneficiary of the industry transition to independent financial advice. It has been the recipient of the highest value of funds inflow of any platform provider, for 13 straight quarters, taking market share from the banks and growing to be the 6th largest platform provider, behind the 4 banks and Maquarie. It is widening the gap on HUB, and Praemium looks like it is falling by the wayside.
Netwealth delivers 34.5% NPAT growth and current FUA1 $40.7 billion
1H2021 financial results highlights (PCP2 )
~ EBITDA of $40.5 million ($31.1 million), increase of 30.1% to PCP.
~EBITDA margin of 56.0% (53.1%) for 1H2021.
~ NPAT of $27.6 million ($20.5 million), $7.1 million increase or 34.5% increase to PCP.
~ Total Income of $72.4 million ($58.7 million) an increase of $13.7 million or 23.4% to PCP. Platform Revenue of $71.2 million ($57.3 million), an increase of $13.8 million or 24.1% to PCP.
~ Total Operating Expenses of $31.9 million ($27.5 million), an increase of $4.3 million to PCP, up 15.8% (including increase in employee benefits of $3.9 million, up 19.5% to $23.7 million for 1H2021). Headcount at 31 December 2020 of 371 with an additional 32 roles added in 1H2021.
~Operating net cash flow pre-tax3 of $40.5 million ($31.3 million), an increase of $9.1 million or 29.2% to PCP.
~EPS of 11.3 cents (8.4 cents), an increase of 2.9 cents or 34.5% to PCP.
~ On 17 February 2021, the board declared a fully franked interim dividend of 9.06 cents per share totalling $22.1 million for 1H2021. The dividend is payable on 26 March 2021. The exdividend date is 22 February 2021.
~ On 17 February 2021, Jane Tongs retired from the board and Tim Antonie was appointed as Chairman. On 1 February 2021 a new independent non-executive director, Kate Temby, was appointed.