My thesis (building on the work of others including @Rocket6 and @Strawman ) is that the WFH business provides the staying power to enable the Publishing and Original IP businesses to have many shots at goal.
My FY28 projections are revenue ~$89m and EBITDA of ~$21m, with the following key assumptions:
- WFH business doubles in size over this period
- Current Original IP business is maintained (obviously a number of assumptions implicit in here)
- One major successful title or various permutations involving smaller titles
- Publishing business begins to ramp (run-rate of $4m+)
- Employee Benefits and Selling Expenses growth at 10% p.a. over this period
- G&A grows at 5% p.a.
- Shares on issue grow at 5% p.a. (to attract and retain employees)
I appreciate there isn't a huge amount of science in these assumptions and a lot has to go right to achieve this case, but as others have noted previously, the range of potential outcomes is huge and ultimately I rely on the downside protection afforded by the WFH business and am therefore prepared to back management.
At an NPV of 15% this results in a valuation $0.41.
Things I'm either not sure how to quantify or haven't specifically addressed:
- Capacity / utilisation of the team - I've started some comp work, but haven't got too far here. 10% employee benefits may be way off
- Upside (or distraction) from NFT projects like Beans
- Upside (or distraction) from M&A
I have taken a toehold position and will continue to monitor their progress.