I finally got around to watching the online presentation of results with Q&A.
Martin spoke to their business uniqueness. Basically his waffle was trying to say that large companies (eg Google) can provide the raw statistics, ie the what, but without the human interaction, they cannot get the why, and that is where businesses like PPL have a place.
Positive NPAT of $4k. Flag; This is an excellent outcome in the context of the business since FY21.
ANZ growth flat, all growth from O/S. Flag; Watch for a stall in O/S revenue.
Shift from equity STI to cash STI continues as flagged in FY23 AGM. No LTI program in FY24. Flag; Shift to cash good, no LTI bad.
Actual close dates for the “amplify” business units was in July 23. Flag; This has made the results a bit muddy, as some details are ‘inclusive’ and some are ‘exclusive’ of Amplify.
Martin and Melinda both presented. Flag; Melinda is the power base. She is articulate and clear in her language, a warning flag if she was to depart. Martin is a wet sock. He rambles, is non-specific in his language and inspires no confidence. However, both have been constant since FY21 and that’s a good thing.
Note. Melinda remarked that cash flow is “slow” in first half, and they make ‘most of their cash flow’ in H2. Flag; to meet guidance of 46-51mil, with 1H revenue of 24mil … the maths is a bit off, as that would be another 24-26mil in 2H… so that same as 1H?
Note. Melinda reiterated guidance of 46-51mil revenue. FY23 was 43.7mil, therefore a increase to the lower end of 46mil would be a 5% increase in full year revenue. That would be a very good outcome, considering it would be higher on a single business unit, as FY23 had 3x business units to generate revenue.
Overall, PPL is showing the signs of a positive turnaround. Still many risks at play.
Quick 5yr DCF models at 20% growth with 10% discount show ranges from $0.16 to $0.41 in share price, depending on variables.
