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Last edited 3 years ago
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#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 3 years ago

Years ago, I recall being at Bathurst for the great race. watching a Rex (ok at the time it was Hazelton) Saab fly from the top of the mountain down Conrod Straight to the delight of the crowd. Bathurst airport is packed for race weekend, and this was one of the airports Rex “owned”. 

This ownership is changing – as has been reported in the media – Rex is claiming the Qantas is being predatory. Another term for it is competitive. On the back of this Rex is withdrawing from several ports including Bathurst, as well as larger centres such as Lismore and Ballina.

In NSW most of the routes that were previously regulated are now no longer regulated. This is different in Queensland where most of the inland regional ports remain regulated. Rex managed to pick up a slew of these routes, winning the 5 year contracts from QantasLink, commencing services are the start of this calendar year. It is noted Qantas were winding back services on some of the routes, so it makes me question the profitability – appreciating this was in 2021 when we were all remaining close to home.

The company is also undergoing pressure from the pilot association, predominately on job preservation on the back of these withdrawn routes. Lismore was once a pilot “base”.

This is a tough place to play, and the business has many balls in the air:

-       Considerations for SaaB fleet replacement

-       Newly established jet services now operating on the most competitive trunk routes globally

-       Ongoing pilot discussions

-       Ongoing load factor pressure 

-       Competitor pressure (Qantas and subsidiaries))

-       New entrants (Bonza- not unique to Rex)

-       Escalating fuel costs (not unique to Rex)

The travelling public are becoming fickle and are now familiar with and comfortable to travel on carriers with different tail liveries. The tie up with Delta, channelling all these interline pax to Rex will be critical.

#Financials
stale
Added 3 years ago

The ASX notification was 'Rex revises profit guidance'. This caught my attention as I immediately wondered how they were still operating profitably. The revision was actually increasing the loss estimate from 15M to 18M for FY21 with results due to be released on 31 August. 

There is an expression in aviation...how to make a small fortune with an airline? Start with a big fortune. 

Rex is the largest operator of Saab 340B aircraft, currently 'operating' more than 25% of the global fleet of this type. The latest companh update has most (2 are on lease) being fully owned. All the more recent 737NG are leased. 

The operating expenses, even with aircraft grounded, much of which is in USD, cannot be understated.

This straw probably should have waited until the end of the month and the updated results. It was trigged by media reports of further furlow of staff. This is tragic for those involved, investors and anyone who is reliant on these air services. 

Unfortunately the result release at the end of the month will not be an improvement.