Again on the RFT = Tritium theme, here is a nice article on Tritium that mentions their current market share and future pipeline.

"the company (Tritium) now accounts for a fifth of all direct current (DC) fast-chargers for EVs sold in Western countries, with 3,000 systems distributed to date and a sales pipeline of at least $200 million."

Full article: https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/tritium-puts-electric-vehicle-charging-expansion-into-gear-with--200m-pipeline.html

26/3/2019 - New contract win for Tritium.

https://www.renewableenergymagazine.com/electric_hybrid_vehicles/easygo-ie-launches-irelanda-s-most-advanced-20190326

Ireland’s first privately-owned electric vehicle (EV) charging network, EasyGo.ie, has launched the country’s most advanced publicly available DC charger, a Veefil-RT 50kW DC rapid charger developed by DC charging technology specialist, Tritium.

EasyGo.ie "also announced plans to install 88 of Tritium’s DC rapid chargers by the end of 2020, with at least 20 to be deployed by the end of 2019"

Should result in another injection of orders for RFT showing up on the books in FY2018 and 1H20 results.

Nice report in Jan '19 from the Senate’s Select Committee on Electric Vehicles recommending government investment for EV charging: http://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/the-senate-gets-it-the-world-gets-it-so-lets-get-australia-on-board-the-great-electric-vehicle-shift/

In another recent report, 2019 Infrastructure Priority List, Infrastructure Australia has for the first time identified construction of a national EV fast-charging network as a “High Priority” initiative for Australia. (http://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/infrastructure-australia-recognises-electric-vehicle-infrastructure-as-a-high-priority-so-high-time-for-government-to-get-on-board/)

If (big IF) implemented by the government it would be good news for Tritium, and RFT, as being Australian companies they will have an advantage when it comes to winning any government contracts as they will likely require Australian content.

Hopefully both parties will take EV policies to the Federal election in May like their state level counterparts did at the recent NSW election: http://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/comparing-the-major-parties-ev-policies-in-nsw/

I see two main risks with RFT.

Firstly and most immediately, all their eggs are in one basket, the EV charging OEM Tritium. Currently they have an exclusive supply agreement for CY19 but if Tritium doesn’t renew this agreement or if Tritium is unable to win more orders, RFT’s revenue evaporates.
There is also the possibility that even if the agreement is extended, Tritium will squeeze RFT on the price thereby reducing RFT’s margin.

The second and more medium term risk is technology. RFT and Tritium are small companies but they are competing against very big companies like ABB, Siemens and Schneider Electric. These big companies already have strong brand names in power electronics, global coverage and most importantly, huge amounts of money to invest in R&D. While RFT and Tritium appear to have a competitive offering currently, there is a risk that they will not be able to keep up with the “big boys” and their greater scale and R&D dollars over the longer term.

If I see the Tritium agreement not renewed, RFT failing to diversify into other EV Charging OEM’s or Tritium struggling to win contracts due to an inferior offering I’ll be heading for the exit.

Given that RFT’s growth is being driven by the EV charging segment which represents 70% of it’s revenue (as per 1H19 results) I’m only going to address this Bull Case on that market.

According to the 2018 market research report "Electric Vehicle Charging Stations Market by Charging Station (AC Charging Station, DC Charging Station), Installation Type (Residential, Commercial), and Region (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Row) - Global Forecast to 2023", the electric vehicle charging stations market is expected to grow from USD 5.30 Billion in 2018 to reach USD 30.41 Billion by 2023, at a CAGR of 41.8% between 2018 and 2023. Key factors such as government funding, subsidies, and incentives, growing demand for electric vehicles, growing concern toward environmental pollution, and heavy investment from automakers of EVs are driving the electric vehicle charging stations market.

DC charging stations, which require AC to DC rectifiers, held the largest share of the electric vehicle charging stations market in 2017. Active participation from EV manufacturers in expanding DC charging networks for EV owners is one of the primary factors for the high market share of DC charging stations. DC fast charging installations are expected to continue to hold the largest share of the electric vehicle charging stations market between 2018 and 2023.

While RFT’s rectifiers are a sub-component for DC EV chargers so their TAM is smaller than the numbers given above, this is still a large and extremely rapidly growing market providing huge upside potential for RFT if their EV charging OEM partners can capture even a small percentage of it. The “rising tide lifts all ships” as they say.

While Tritium won the Ionity contract for the first two pilot stations in Germany, the bulk (300) of the Ionity contract for 400 stations (comprising 6 chargers each) was won by their competitor ABB.

While a contract for 100 x 6 = 600 chargers is great, it concerns me that after winning the two pilot stations they were then only awarded 1/4 of the main contract.

RFT's eggs are currently all in the Tritium basket so it's useful to look at Tritium as a proxy for RFT.

Given Tritium is an Australian company that manufactures in Australia they have an advantage when it comes to contracts in Australia, particularly if they are government funded as government contracts usually come with a mandatory local content %. At the very least an Australian based supplier is preferred.
Although it must be pointed out that they lost (to ABB) the tender to supply the High Power DC Fast Chargers for the first two sites of the network being built by ChargeFox. Picking up only the smaller 50kW units.

However the big potential is really overseas where they will lose that advantage and be competing on a level field with large global players like ABB, BTC Power, Efacec and Signet.

The future and real money is in the High Power fast chargers and their biggest global competitor is ABB who is currently the global market leader with >10,000 DC fast charging stations installed world wide. Their Terra HP series of High Power DC fast charger's is the market leader from a technology standpoint.

Tritiums lack of success in the lucrative High Power sub-segment concerns me.
They did not win any of the 2,000 unit DC Fast Charger contract for Electrify America. They lost the High Power units in ChargeFox's Australia network and despite winning the two Ionity pilot sites, lost the 3/4 of the main contract.
I hope they can rectify (excuse the pun) this situation and gain more market pentration in this sub-segment.

Tritium has just completed a $30 MAUD capital raise from it's existing (private) shareholders and founders to support increased production for it's fast growing customer base.

Full article: https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/tritium-electrified-on--30-million-raise.html

The fact that they are expanding capacity and managed to fund this entirely via existing shareholders and founders is a very positive sign from my point of view.

Should also mean continuted order growth for RFT.