Company Report
Last edited 2 years ago
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ranked
#2
Performance (45m)
-4.4% pa
Followed by
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#Strawman Meeting
stale
Added 2 years ago

This was a good meeting, hearing from a board member, long time employee and major shareholder. However, to be honest, I came away with mixed feelings. I need to watch the recording again and do some analysis.

I have little doubt that this firm will be well-managed as a sustainable, profitable business.

My concern is that it might not be well positioned for the massive industry tailwinds that are building up. In the words of Nicholas himself, there is a risk that "we get left behind".

On the one hand, they have matured the RT22 platform relatively recently, and it is well-positioned as a key component in the fast-charging segment.

On the other hand, Nicholas could not clearly articulate who their target customers are, nor their plans to monetise this platform in the next crucial phase of industry development.

I think that in order to understand this company properly and to understand its prospects, we have to understand the competition. I believe (or suspect) that there are a lot of estalished power systems players in the EV charger sector, alreeady making $100s of millions or $bn in annual sales. It is already a major market, and its growing very quickly. As well as the industry leaders, there are doubtless countless component suppliers, who are well-funded given the overall positive vibe for the industry.

According to the IEA, over 0.5m fast chargers were installed in 2021 - mostly in China. And its growing rapidly. Fast charger networks are being cited by the EU recently as a constraint to achieving EU EV uptake goals. I've seem similar stories in the US, who are much further behind (although not as far behind as Australia!).

With IRA and equivalent legislation in the EU, both are going to be catching up hard in the next few years.

My point it, the explosive growth is happening now, the big players are already there and RFT is talking about going to conferences and discussing standards, and being available to all customers, and questioning whether they might build US capacity to be in the game for IRA deals. It seems to lack conviction, clarity and substance.

I hold a position in RFT as a speculative stock. But I am not convinced.

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#Buy
stale
Added 2 years ago

Read recent straws by @Noddy74 @shivrak and @Wini for the details leading to my decision today to establish a small position in $RFT. (0.3% RL and 1.5% SM).

With a healthy contract backlog and profitable operations combined with easing supply chain, @Wini called it that FY23 and FY24 could be the breakout for RFT. Today gave support to that heads up.

I've had them on my watch list for 3 years and, although I prefer not to buy on "good news" when the market gets excited, today I dipped my toe in the water. No doubt, there will be plenty of opportunity to add more at cheaper prices, and I would like to get up to my usual position size for a speculative stock of 1.0%.

Just back of envelop, if H2 looks like H1, then the p/e would be about 9. And it generated cash this half! Of course, that is no way to think about this company, as it positions itself to provide "picks and shovels" into the global EV market. There are many competitors for this huge market, but $RFT are in the game with deep capabilities. It has all the credentials for a speculative position in the portfolio.

$RFT has been around for 30 years, and they have deep expertise in power systems engineering. For those intrested in going deeper on the technicals and also seeing and hearing about the RT22 50KW EV Charger Module, have a look at this video.

The whole video is interesting for those with an appetite for getting into some of the electrical engineering details of EV and Battery technology. The R22 bit starts at around 57: 30.

Disc: Held