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Last edited 8 months ago
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#Potential Red Flag
stale
Added 8 months ago

I hold SLH in real life and am now underwater. I suspect I have been seduced by fancy ROE numbers when in fact I should also have been looking at the totality of the business and its history.

Look at the graph and this has been a shocker (weekly over 5 years).

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A listing price of $2.50 has seen a plethora of acquisitions reduce the SP to just $1.40. Talk about buying yourself into poverty.

Yep, I get it that the management team have been buying shares and that is a good sign, but is it a NECESSARY demonstrable act of presumed confidence to encourage the market? One sentence buried deep in the notes implies the external debt covenants may be in peril - quote - "The continued covenant compliance is dependent on the Group continuing to trade in line with its forecast" Hmmm, not a rolled gold endorsement! At the very least, this might curtail acquisitions whilst they get debt and 'acquisition bedding down' issues under control.And this will be a good thing. Maybe this industry is undergoing quite some change as the big get bigger & the small get out.

The 1HFY24 results were a shocker, but there were extraneouus issues on the dockside which upset normal operations. Also, the greater confidence in supply lines have resulted in many companies now reducing stocking levels & hence warehousing requirements - utilisation now down ot 77.4% (but this seems to be on a par with a another logistics compoany I follow).

I am hanging in there but expect to see a marked improvement in 2H results and (hopefully) the Red Sea issues and the need to re-route shipping via Cape of Good Hope will be another reminder to Aussie businesses that supply lines can be easily interrupted. I understand container rates are rising.

I note that the 3 analysts covering SLH still maintain favourable IV's, but are they acolytes/guns for hire. One of them has such a reputation.