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CEO, Mark Thompson presented the Q2 investor update from Stockholm, Sweden, with the share price at 3 year lows.
Big picture themes:
PERMITTING
Mark said they were hoping for a Supreme Court ruling before the end of last year. Given, Winter break is over, he is hoping a decision will be for the coming over the next few weeks. There are two scenarios:
1) Supreme Court throws out the appeal and the permit stands, with no further appeal pathways available. The project, offtakes, funding, and equity raising can then be resolved.
2) The Supreme Court sends the permit back the the Environment Court to re-consider the ruling. If this occurs, Talga can than apply for an interim permit that allows them to proceed whilst the appeal is reviewed. So, the delay will be measured in weeks, rather than months.
FUNDING / CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Given the significant share price weakness, the major concern addressed was equity dilution risk associated with raising the 40% equity to get Stage 1 anode facility up and running. Mark addressed these concerns, with some interesting comments:
1) Talga "investigating grant funding and state aid" as part of equity raise. Interestingly, Mark clarified under EU law, applicants for grants / state aid cannot comment on said applications until after they are awarded. What we can take from this is that Talga has already applied for state aid / grants, but cannot confirm or deny this.
2) Pre-payment. Talga is seeking offtake agreements with an up front customer payment for a portion of future production.
3) Equity partnerships are being investigated, where the like of Mitsui buy in for a share of the anode business.
Mark also mentioned exploration and other expense will be wound back to ensure they have a sufficient financial buffer whilst the capital structure is finalised.
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
Silicon anode pilot plant is now operating, with customer testing advancing, and feasibility studies underway for a commercial plant.
Conductive additives (cathode additives) - Lab scale testing, with early stage customer testing ongoing.
ANODE / MINE SITE PROGRESS
Anode site purchased.
Stage 1 of early works completed.
DISC - HELD.
Today, Talga have advertised for Engineering Manager, and Project Manager roles, indicating they are gearing up for construction to begin on the Anode Facility come March / April. The advertisement indicates they are in a bit of a rush to fill the roles, given they warn applicants they may fill the role before close of applications.
It indicates Talga is confident a resolution to the permit appeals process is not far away.
DISC - HELD
It was announced by European Commissioner, ThierryBreton, that the European Parliament reached a deal on the Critical Raw Materials Act. As a result, the legislation will be enacted, which will ensure more government support and less red tape for companies such as Talga. The Critical Raw Materials Act is seeking to secure 40% of Critical Raw Materials processing within Europe (anode/graphite currently 0%).
This was announced the the 10th annual High-Level Conference of the European Innovation Partnership on Raw Materials.
The link above will take you to the video of the entire conference.
Talga presentation: 4:51:30 mark. I think Martin's presentation could of been better..............One slide, and seemed a little unprepared.
ThierryBreton went on to say that "without graphite there will be zero batteries (manufactured in Europe)". He went on to say: "so I really applaud of course also your initiative and your project"
DISC - HELD
Mark Thompson presented at the quarterly shareholder webinar on 10/11/2023. This coincides with another $15 million share placement @ $1.00. As background, Talga has raised the following capital over the past 3 years:
1) January 21, 2021 - $30 million @ $1.45 / share.
2) October 7, 2022 - $32 million @ $1.10 / share.
3) February 23, 2023 - 40 million @ $1.55 / share
4) November 3, 2023 - $15 million @ $1.00 / share
Since the beginning of 2021, Talga as transitioned from a exploration / research company, to a developer, with quarterly operating costs increasing from $4.2 M per quarter to $7.2 M per quarter in 2023. The problem is, as a developer, costs have risen dramatically, but revenue is still a few years away.
To make matters worse, the Swedish mining appeals process is allowing opponents of the graphite mine to filibuster the development, delaying finalisation of offtake agreements, debt agreements, and equity structure. However, there is one remaining appeal the opponents can make, and it is now under consideration by the Supreme Court. There is a high probability the Supreme court will quash the appeal in the coming few months.
So where do this leave Talga? Well Mark confirmed in the shareholder webinar the following:
1) Mark reported there appears to be no new matters / objections opponents have raised in their appeal to the Supreme Court - If this is correct, the appeal is unlikely to succeed.
2) Mark reiterated Stage 1 of the anode refinery/graphite mine will be financed under a 60% / 40% debt / equity structure, and confirmed the 60% debt funding was oversubscribed, and is essentially finalised, subject primarily to the mining permit appeal.
3) Offtakes / Type 'A' sampling. Mark reported some customers have completed their anode qualification process, with binding offtake agreements impacted by the mining permit appeals process.
4) Equity funding. Looking at a range of options including partnerships (Mitsui?), customers pre-purchase agreement, government grants, and equity raise.
5) China export ban. Mark reported his phone has been ringing off the hook in recent weeks, as customers begin to panic about anode supply chain risks. Mark reports auto OEMs are finally realising how vulnerable their EV supply chain is to geopolitical risk.
6) Silicon anode - Talnode Si -positive feedback / interest from customers during what I believe is the B/C sample qualification process. Discussion with customers about funding plant expansion / co-location of facilities. It appears Talga is looking to fund development / expansion with minimal shareholder capital.
7) Recent capital raise - Mark reported the $15 million capital will be used to fund site infrastructure works / and critical path equipment, implying the raise is needed to keep the development program on track whilst the mining permit appeals process culminates.
The presentation gave me some confidence that development is progressing as well as can be expected, with some potential upside in:
a) EU grant funding to accelerate the Anode facility development to minimise supply chain risk for the European automotive industry.
b) Talnode Si product commercialisation is not factored into the the share price.
c) Culmination in permit appeal process will catalyse offtake agreements, debt agreements, etc.
DISC - HELD and SPP participant.
China restricts graphite exports
This is the latest move in a growing EV tradewar.
This exposes the vulnerability of the European lithium ion battery supply chain, and may drive theEU to increase support for loal anode production.....
On September 12, 2023, Talga announced construction has commenced on site, with early works beginning. However, on closer review, early construction works will cease prior to Winter. Assuming an 18 month construction program, the Anode plant will not be operational prior to June 2025. This is 2 years behind the original schedule.
The cause of the delay is attributable to the arduous Swedish approvals process, which is still continuing, with appeal to the high court on the cards. This will be resolved on the 28 of September. If there is an appeal, and it is accepted, then lord knows what happens.
There has been a steady increase in short interest since early May. This coincides with an announcement of an extension of time given for appeal submissions relating to the mining permit. It appears the short thesis relates to delays to the anode plant development, putting pressure on Talga's balance sheet, and hindering their ability to close out off-take agreements and financing.
On the finance front, Talga did report Financing of the anode development is fully resolved. this represents 60% of the anode plant capital cost. A question remains as to how Talga will raise the remaining capital. At the current share price, and assuming Talga finance 100% of the capital, a 20-25% dilution is in store.
Disc - HELD.
The Swedish court of appeal determined there are no grounds for any parties to be granted leave to appeal the permit decision.
The rejected parties have the option to appeal to the Swedish Supreme court, but the Supreme Court will only hear an appeal if there is a need to develop case law, evidence of miscarriage of justice, or gross errors in law. It is highly unlikely the will be able to prove any of the three criteria for a Supreme Court Appeal.
In the presentation yesterday, MD, Mark Thompson indicated debt financing is essentially resolved, with the details to be resolved. In relation to offtake agreements, they have been delayed due to the appeals process, which appears to be now resolved.
The remaining unknown is how Talga will fund the 40% portion of the development capital.
DISC: HELD.
Talga's anode plant was approved by Swedish Environmental Court - All regulatory boxes now ticked.
The Umeå District Court, the Land and Environmental Court, in a partial judgment on 21 June 2023 left Talga AB permit according to the Environmental Code for the establishment and operation of a facility for the manufacture of battery anode material from graphite concentrate within the properties Hertsön 11:1 and 11:1010 in Luleå municipality
Talga have reported today that the European Investment Bank has approved 150 M Euro senior debt funding for the Vittangi Anode Project.
Talga intends to finance 60% of the project cost via debt, and this deal accounts for approximately 50% of the total project debt. This is is a cornerstone deal, and significantly increases the likelihood of securing the remaining debt, and capital on good terms.
With the anode facility environmental permit verdict tomorrow, we can expect to see early works for the Anode facility commence within weeks.
DISC - HELD.
CONGRATULATIONS SHAREHOLDERS:
Published 2023-04-05 byUmeå district court
andThe Land and Environmental Court at Umeå district court
Target: M 1573-20
The Land and Environmental Court grants Talga AB permission for mining operations at Nunasvaara Södra, extensive open pit mining of 120,000 tons of graphite ore annually. The court does not allow the permit to be claimed even if it is appealed.
Sami villages, organizations, individuals and Finnish parties have considered that there are general shortcomings in the application. They have objected that it is not possible to make an overall assessment of the environmental consequences of the operation because the company has not simultaneously applied for permission for its other projects next to Nunasvaara Södra.
- The application applies to all activities that the company intends to conduct at Nunasvaara Södra and is not dependent on other projects or environmental permits. The court also does not think that there are any flaws in the evidence. It has therefore been possible for the court to carry out a complete assessment of all environmental effects, explains the court's chairman, councilor Anna Svedjevik.
The substantive examination before the court has included the location of the business and its impact on, among other things, human health, reindeer husbandry, water environments, species and Natura 2000 areas. The court has concluded that permits and species protection exemptions can be issued. Two important issues in the case have been the activity's impact on reindeer husbandry and the impact through emissions to water.
- That the water can be purified means that mining operations can be conducted without unacceptable risks for land and water environments. The terms of the judgment have been determined to guarantee this, says Per Lagervall, as a technically knowledgeable judge in the case.
- A mine always involves an intervention in the natural environment and an impact on reindeer husbandry. In this case, mining will only be allowed to take place the six months a year that the Sami villages are not in the area. The court has therefore concluded that mining operations and reindeer herding can coexist on the site, says Lena Nilsson, also a technically knowledgeable judge in the case.
Talga's application for permission was submitted to the court at the end of May 2020. The processing time from the time the application was received until the court announced its verdict has amounted to almost three years.
- The goal has been a little unusual because the application has also been made available to the public in Finland. Material has also been translated into Finnish. It has affected the court's processing time, explains Anna Svedjevik, councillor.
Application to be heard of 3-5 May, and will cover the entire development. Interesting this was released a few days before the mining permit judgement. Ruling presumably by the end of June.
Translation from Umea Environment Court Release:
In case M 1826-22 at the Umeå District Court, the Land and Environmental Court, Talga AB has applied for permit according to the Environmental Code for the establishment and operation of a plant for the manufacture of battery anode material from graphite concentrate within part of the properties Hertsön 11:1 and 11:1010 in Luleå municipality. The company has also applied for a permit for water operations for construction of the company's facilities in water areas. The Land and Environmental Court holds the main hearing in the case at Luleå District Court, Skeppsbrogatan 43, Luleå, 3–5 May 2023, starting at 08.30 every day. At the main hearing, the entire company's application will be processed, i.e. not just the question about so-called building judgment. The main hearing may also be held if either party absent. Viewing will be held on 4 May 2023 at the site of the applied for facility within Hertsöfältet, Luleå Industrial Park. The applicant arranges transport to and from the sight. The documents in the case are available at the court's office and at the custodian's office Roumyana Holmqvist, Luleå district court, Skeppsbrogatan 43, 972 31 Luleå, tel. 0920-59 55 00.
Talga announced today they have increased their resource by 22.5%, following successful drilling results, and a reduction in cut-off grade to 11%. Contained graphite has increased to 8.5 MTonnes.
Market Cap per Tonne reserve now at: $69 / Tonne.
This increase is all academic, as the permitting ruling will be released this Wednesday evening!
DISC - HELD
CAPITAL RAISE
Talga entered a trading halt this week to raise $40 million via SPP at a significant discount to the prevailing share price. No opportunity for existing shareholders to participate, and followed a capital raise late last year, where the SPP was terminated early, denying all shareholders an opportunity to participate.
ANNOYING AND UNFAIR.
On permitting:
DISC - HELD.
Heads up. The next 5 weeks, there will be significant milestones as follows:
1) Mine permitting court hearing will end by February 24, 2013.
2) Mine permitting will enable JV with Mitsui to be resolved.
3) Mine permitting will enable offtake agreements to be resolved.
4) Mine permitting will enable European Development Banks to approve/progress funding of project.
EU's Net Zero Industry Act & Critical Raw Materials Act - Significant address at Davos from 12:30....here
Every Talga shareholder should listen to this address. The political support for critical raw material developments such as Talga's quite a tailwind. Funding and permitting risks are falling away.
DISC - HELD.
Talga Group have announced they have signed a non-binding Letter of Intent with Verkor to supply Talnode-C anode to support Verkor's 16 GWh/annum gigafactory in Dunkirk, France in 2024. Interestingly, this coincides with Talga's Stage 1 anode plant program, and capacity. It appears Verkor is looking to secure a significant chunk of Talga's anode production capacity.
It also appears the EIB finance is conditional on supporting European supply chains, given the offtake negotiations announced are focussing on European manufacturers (and this is mentioned in the announcement). UK supply chains that were in the earlier planning phases, likely to suffer the consequences of BREXIT.
Good to see Talga's negotiating position is strengthened, with multiple offtake agreements being negotiated simultaneously. It explains the delay in finalising the ACC off-take agreement. Talga Group expect the negotiations to be resolved by the end of Q1 2023. This coincides with the completion of the mining permitting process.
About Verkor - Verkor has significant backing, including Renault Group.
DISC - HELD.
European Investment Bank Published tala's Anode Development as a Project to be Financed - Under Appraisal.
Link here
November 23, 2022, Talga has announced their anode projects have passed the EIB screening process, and is now under appraisal for finance of up to $300 M EURO.
An EIB appraisal procedure can take anywhere between six weeks and 18 months depending on the project scope, the degree of complexity of the operation, and the efficiency of the appraisal process on the part of both the EIB itself and the project promoter.
A link to the EIB approval process is here
DISC - HELD
Couldn't help but notice Managing Director, Mark Thompson recent increase in activity on Twitter. Interestingly, this is after a capital raise, not beforehand, which is often the case with MDs.
Notable activity:
1) Mark commenting on o tweet from the European Investment Bank (EIB) President, Werner Hoyer. Here is the tweet. Werner noting the approval of $11 BN Euros in impactful investments. It appears EIB has been doing due diligence on Talga's development. Talga referenced a site visit from a recent European Finance Institution.
2) Commenting on CEO of Benchmark Intelligence tweet concerning lack of graphite supply. Here is the tweet.
DISC - HELD.
Talga Group are recruiting for a senior project manager to:
"Talga has been established in Luleå for a number of years, today there is an innovation and pilot plant where lab tests are carried out while waiting for the establishment of the factory which is planned to be ready by 2025. The factory will be unique in its kind and will be able to deliver 19,500 tons of finished anode material annually, enabling the production of 400,000 electric cars."
"We are now looking for a Project Director who will be strategically responsible for ensuring the establishment, both regarding the property itself and the industrial equipment. The project is currently in the permit stage where Talga is expected to be able to start establishment shortly."
DISC - HELD
Some further thoughts on the Non-binding offtake agreement announcement today:
1) The offtake agreement is with Automotive Cells Company (ACC), a JV between Mercedes Benz, SAFT, & Stellantis. Automotive giants.
2) ACC has been awarded funding by the EU as an IPCEI (Important Project of Common European Interest). IPCEI on Batteries is investing 3.2 BN EUROs in the European battery supply chain. For Talga to be a qualified supplier of an IPCEI is a big deal IMO, and improves the chances of receiving good finance arrangements with investment banks currently in negotiation with Talga.
3) EU Commission is seeking to take a proactive role in developing the battery supply chain The EU Commission President is advocating for the EU Commission to make equity investments in small enterprises to accelerate development. Look out for the potential for something out of left fieldin the form of direct investment to accelerate Talga's development of Stage 2.
4) The off-take agreement is for 60% of Talga's maximum Stage 1 output. This is likely to stimulate competition for the only locally produced, qualified anode in Europe.
DISC - HELD.
Talga reported European Investment Bank, Swedish Export Credit Corporation, and Nordic Investment Bank representatives have conducted a site visit of Talga's anode pilot plant, and mine as part of the due diligence into financing the Vittangi Anode Project.
Interestingly, the update makes it quite clear that financing discussions focus on the financing of the project, rather than financing Talga. This is inline with the possibility that Mitsui / ABB will commit capital to the project for 30-40% ownership, with the remainder of finance via debt / loans.
DISC - HELD.
Talga reported the remaining balance of its 36 hole drill campaign.
The remaining 23 holes demonstrated the continuation of the high grade ore, reporting grades of up to 50.3% graphite.
An update on the Vittangi graphite resource is expected in Q4 2022.
Another positive in this report is that it signifies the completion of exploration expenditure for the time being, reducing cash burn going forward, during this its transition from an anode developer to an anode producer.
Note: Talga will need more cash within the next 6 months.
DISC - HELD
On July 6, 2022, Talga reported the first 13 of a 36 hole drill campaign of 2 km long target between Niska South and Niska North deposits.
Talga says the resource revision aims to further define what is Europe's largest and highest-grade graphite mineral resource to support and optimise potential future anode production expansions.
DISC - HELD
On June 20, 2022, Talga announced the Environment Court has received most submissions, which were due by June 23. Important submissions include:
The court hearing will be scheduled shortly after a court organised site visit on September 20, 2022.
To me, it appears that the most significant permitting risks have been dealt with. There may be adverse submissions, but it appears the key stakeholders are on board with the project.
DISC - HELD.
I am wondering whether this update is more about pumping the the share price prior to a capital raise. We'll see..
FUNDING UPDATE
Talga announced that they have received an expression of interest from Nordic Investment Bank(NIB). NIB will explore the possibility of providing financing to Talga's Vittangi Project. The Vittangi project certainly fits within NIB's core purpose of supporting the regions productivity and environment.
It was also announced that Talga's partner, ABB have received a letter of support form Swiss Export Risk Insurance (SERV) for ABB's delivery for the project. Govt backed debt (such as backed by SERV), enable lower lending rates on debt finance.
Talga continues to pursue commercial agreements and finance commitments with partners, such as Automotive OEMs (eg VW Group???).
ENGINEERING & DESIGN
Engineering and design studies are expected to be completed this month. It is unclear to me what design studies mean or how significant this is in relation to design completion.
Value engineering study is nearing completion.
Commercial production scheduled for 2024 commencement.
DISC - HELD
Our lending activity aims to support the region’s productivity and environment. Our lending activity aims to support the region’s productivity and environment.
Interesting Tweet. Talga doing what looks to be some pretty effective lobbying / promotion for its Swedish Anode project:
Talga attended the parliamentary seminar as part of efforts to recognise #WorldEnvironmentDay, highlighting the need for collaboration in tackling climate change, and the importance of electrification in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and averting the climate crisis.
Talga CEO Europe Martin Phillips joined members of Swedish Parliament, Mattias Karlsson and Emilia Töyrä, as well as representatives from the Electrification Commission, Swedish Energy Agency and @LKABgroup to discuss the challenges and opportunities of electrification.
Talga Group reported today that the final phase of their 25000 Tonne trial mine will commence over the next few days. Over Summer, Talga will complete the mining of 25 000 Tonnes of graphite ore, which will be processed into their Talnode-C anode product and sold to customers as part fo advanced customer testing / qualification processes.
Mark Thompson said:
“The final phase of Talga’s Niska South trial mine is an important step in establishing our European vertically integrated green anode business, which we believe will become a significant supplier to this key battery and EV market. The feedstock from the trial mine will be used for advanced qualification trials at our EVA anode plant with a range of global customers as we scale up towards commercial production in 2024.”
It appears that the production start date has slipped by 6-12 months. This is consistent with the delays in mine approvals, which were originally programmed to be issued by end of Q1 2022, and which appear to have slipped to Q3/Q4 2022, given the land & environment court hearing is scheduled for Q3/Q4 2022.
Talga Group will burn $10-20 m in capital due to this delay. Construction costs will also escalate by 8-15% due to the delay.......Annoying. The good news is, Europe will likely provide financial support for projects such as Talga's, which strategically critical for Europe's energy security.
DISC - I HOLD
.
April 21, 2202, Talga Group announced their permit application has progressed to a court hearing.
This means the relevant authorities have completed scrutiny of the application documentation, including supplementary information provided by Talga Group.
Based on the Court's preliminary timetable, public statements need to be submitted by June 23, and the formal hearing will commence in the European Autumn. The hearing represents the FINAL step before the Court hands down it's decision.
I have attached the Swedish mining approval process below. The final 2 steps, I understand, are more or less procedural, requiring Talga Group to demonstrate works will be carries out in accordance with building and planning codes.
DISC - HELD.
Talga Group today reported today their EVA plant is now operational, and has commenced production of their Talnode-C for 20+ customers as part of the anode qualification and procurement process. The new EVA plant allows Talga Group to demonstrate it can delivery quality anode materials at scale.
This will enable customers to qualify Talga's anode for future production, leading the way to offtake agreements. The final pieces of the puzzle are mining permits, which, going by Tala's capital raise presentation in late 2022, is expected in the coming weeks; and financing with increasing interest from the EU innovation fund to support battery supply chain development.
DISC - HELD.
Talga has announced the the first Li-ion battery anode material has rolled off the production line of it EVA qualification plant in Sweden. Key highlights:
DISC - HELD
On December 9, 2021, Talga announced further results on resource in-fill and extension drilling. The results are an improvement on resource drilling to date, and include:
MD, Mark Thompson said:
“The high grade and large scale of our 100% owned Vittangi graphite deposits are truly world class and provide a unique opportunity to make massive amounts of anode for batteries from minimal volumes of ore. Across the length of the Nunasvaara South deposit, just 1 metre depth of extracted ore can feed 1 year of planned 19,500tpa anode production. This makes Vittangi a strategically important resource for global battery manufacturing and decarbonisation efforts.”
That's 1 metre of excavation across the Stage 1 pits to deliver about $195 M USD of anode per annum, minimising the environmental impact of the mining operation, energy intensity, and production costs.
DISC - I HOLD.
Talga Group has been active over November on the IR front. With the positive spin around exploration results and pilot plan progress update, is was looking increasingly likely, Talga was not going to close a deal with LKAB & Mitsui. A
On November 24, Talga reported high grade intercepts, increasing the anticipated grades, and extent of the resource.
On November 24, Talga released a progress update on the construction of the EVA Pilot plant, reporting the plant remains on track for commissioning in Q1 2022.
On November 30, 2021, Talga reported the Tripartite LOI between Talga, Mitsui, and LKAB has expired without an agreement between parties. Going forward, Mitsui and Talga will continue negotiations regarding the development of the project.
It is disappointing that Talga was unable to close an acceptable deal, however, Talga's negotiating position is weak without offtake agreements, which will not be forthcoming until after the EVA plant is in full production for 6-12 months.
It is unlikely Talga will enjoy a re-rating until raw material is secured via mining approvals, EVA plant begins operation, and financing is resolved for Phase 1.
DISC - I HOLD.
On November 23, 2021, a panel discussion addressing Green Anodes was arranged as the European Commissions' Raw Materials Week. The panelists were:
The moderator was Megan Richards, ex. Director General of the DG ENER at the European Commission.
Panel introduction highlighted the International Energy Agency identified graphite as a critical raw material, and that Sweden has signed up to the energy transition agreement as part of COP 26, and part of this agreement is the need to secure raw materials that are sustainable.
Key Takeaways form panelists:
Anna-Michelle Asimakopoulou's key points:
Peter Handley's key points:
Mark Thompson's key points:
My takeaway is, Talga's challenges centre around authority approvals, hence why the intense lobbying underway, and financing does not appear to be that much of a concern - Perhaps a big announcement will be forthcoming over the next few days.
DISC - I HOLD.
As a counterpoint to Gaurav Sodhi's analysis on Talga Group, I present my rebuttal:
Firstly, my thoughts on some of Gaurav's comments were:
1) He states there have been a series of bombastic announcements.
2) He mocks the 'ionic diffusivity' description Talga made regarding their anode product in a presentation regarding their anode product.
3) He states their mines are in Switzerland (they are in Sweden).
4) He is critical that only $1 m in capital was expended last financial year - Inferring there is nothing of value on the balance sheet. Construction of the EVA pilot plant only began in Q1 2022, and is on track for completion in Q3 2022.
5) He criticised the high admin expenses ($2.9M). I note the costs associated with financing activities was around $1.8 m over FY2021, which presumably fell under admin expenses and explains the large jump over 2021.
6)He criticised the limited exploration expenditure, quoting the $7 million in expenditure last year. My comment: They have friggin' heaps of graphite resource, they didn't need to spend anymore on exploration.
THE BULL CASE
You can see my blog post here.
Since I published this blog, a few things have changed:
1) JV negotiations extended to November 30, 2021 from July 2021. SO WATCH OUT FOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
2) I have learnt that offtake agreements cannot occur without proven product quality at high volume - hence the EVA pilot plant currently under construction.
3) Permit / approval risk. This is by far the biggest risk, and this was exemplified in the November 23 seminar: "Green anodes: Making Europe a leader in low carbon batteries", where Mark Thompson highlighted the need to streamline regulatory approvals, otherwise the European automotive industry risks perpetuating its current dirty & tenuous battery supply chain.
I could be proven a fool within 24 hours, with the AGM on November 25 - stay tuned.
DISC - I HOLD (BIG TIME)
Interview with Talga Europe CEO here
Key take aways:
1) Mining permits progressing well, and expect approval in the first half of 2022.
2) Mining planned to commence 2023.
3) Anode production to commence 2024.
4) $786 m project, with financing to be raised upon receipt of mining approvals.
DISC - HELD
Large scale geophysical survey identifies 600 m long conductor adjacent to planned concentrator site. Previous rock sampling of the site returned grades of up to 36% graphite, however, the zone was thought to be discontinuous / faulted blocks. The area is now being prioritised for further diamond core drilling over the next month.
Managing Director, Mark Thompson said:
“With rising European demand for EVs and therefore graphite anode products, it is exciting to see the Vittangi Graphite Project - our battery raw material source - continue to grow. Successful exploration allows us to better plan future scale-ups and fully realise the deposit’s potential for clean battery manufacturing. The new target at our Aitik East copper project is another positive development. Our Swedish battery metal projects provide additional avenues for Talga to deliver value across the European battery supply chain.”
I believe Talga Group is targeting 300 kTonne anode production per annum by 2030. The key determinant of this will be the Swedish government's willingness to allow large scale mining of graphite. We may learn more about Sweden's intentions during COP26.
DISC - I HOLD.
Interesting video outlining the geology of the Vittangi Site. is here.
Talga announced trial mining has commenced at Niska South to extract 2500 Tonne of natural graphite samples. Key highlights:
Mark Thompson said:
“We are excited to start this trial graphite mine at Niska South to supply critical natural graphite for our downstream re?ning into greener Li-ion battery anodes for electric vehicles. Additionally, seeing such shallow and high grade mineralisation extending from our drilling and deposits up to 3km away demonstrates the consistency of this world-class graphite supply for more sustainable battery manufacturing within Europe.”
Talga announced an expanded MOU with ABB. The key features of this announcement are:
1) Talga and ABB have agreed to develop the Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) for the development of the concentrator and anode plant for Stage 1 for completion in June 2022.
The agreement also covers the EVA pilot plant, which will be operational early next year.
2) Talga plan to epectrify their underground mining operations using ABB Ability eMine. This will further enhance Talga's already leading CO2 emissions over the anode plant life cycle, with what iwll be a zero CO2 mine.
DISC - I HOLD.
Key takeaways / new information:
1) key milestone of Vittangi DFS relaese - refer to previous straws.
2) Engaged customers annual demand, including EOI and target anode supply for 2025 now exceeds 14 times the Stage 1 production capacity as per Vitangi DFS.
3) Talga Europe CEO said: "......... This (demand) growth drives us to look beyond our currently planned production capacity, where negotiations for purchase agreements are advancing, to explore additional growth options for our northern Sweden anode operation."
4) Talga EVA plant is uner construction, with coated anode production scheduled for Q1 2022. This is the final qualification phase prior to offtake agreements being signed.
5) Expansion planning - The review of expansion options is expected to include a scoping study on the unification of all existing Vittangi graphite project deposits, along with resource increases potentially arising from the upcoming drilling. The scale of a potential scoping study would be based on discussions with customers, local stakeholders and project development partners.
6) ISO 9001 accreditation achieved - no big deal - it is mandatory for auto suppliers.
It appears there are plans to significantly increase the scale of Taga's anode production plans, given the demand, and the scale of their as yet only partially defined deposit.
DISC - I HOLD.
Talga has announced super sized growth targets, amid surging demand for EVs and Lithium Ion batteries.
New surveys have expanded the JORC Exploration target to 170-200 million Tonnes @ 20-30% graphite. This compares to the current resurce estimate of 9 million Tonnes @ 23.5% graphite.
MD, Mark Thompson said: "The building blocks of more sustainable transport and a cleaner environment include battery materials and components, such as Talga's green graphite anodes. Recent customer feedback leads us to more fully define the true extent of our high-grade graphite resources in Sweden and explore the increased scale potential for global battery markets. By establishing this significant vertically integrated natural graphite anode business in Europe, we can clean up existing supply chains and be a positive high-technology addition to the regional economy."
Drilling program to commence next week at Nunasvaara, Niska South, Niska North, with assay results to be received in Q4 of calendar year. Geotechnical, hydrogeological, waste rock and measured resource drilling is also planned at Nunasvaara South in readiness for mine production.
Furthermore, drilling aimed to expand the Jalkunen Graphite Project will commence in January 2022, with a scoping study and mining licence application.
DISC - HELD.
British manufacturers and those in other parts of Europe want to move more of the supply chain for batteries used in electric cars and renewable energy away from China and closer to their plants, a survey showed on Tuesday -
Link to article here: Link
Major milestone acheived for the development of Stage 1. Key takeaways:
1) Mine & production life extended from 22 to 24 years.
2) Significant capital cost increase for the project, including $153 million USD to meet premium, tier 1 battery anode preformance requirements (equiv. to high quality synthetic anode), and $72 Million USD provision for infrastructure to serve Stage 2 expansion. This infrastructure will enable Talga to accelerate Stage 2, the progress of which will be dependatn on mining permits / approvals.
3) Significant sales price increase for the product. This is due to the increasing supply / demand imbalance, an the increase in quality of the anode material (refer point 2 above). The Pre-feasibility Study was base don a sale price of $11 250 USD per Tonne, whilst the DFS has upgraded thsi to $16k per Tonne in 2024, then stabilising at $13k USD per Tonne in 2030 and beyond.
4) Project program slips to 2024, a 6 to 12 month delay form previous guidance.
5) Estimated Project NPV of $1 054 000 USD, based on a discount rate of 8%.
6) Exploitation (mining) and environmental permits were submitted to relevant authorities in May 2020. Talga continues to positively engage with authorities as permits progress through the approvals process, and is not aware of any impediment to the exploitation permit applications being granted. The Company is now finalising the environmental permit for the Luleå anode refinery site.
DISC. - I HOLD
Talga reported to the market the MOU signed with LKAB (Swedish govt owned) and Mitsui has been extended to November 30, 2021.
Terms of a proposed JV are yet to be agreed, hence the time extension. Given the recent MOU signed with FREYR, this extension comes as no surprise, given FREYR, as part of their MOU are exploring the opportunity to co-locate prouction facilities, and possibly licencing Talga's manufacturing IP, which were not on the table previously.
The market didn't like the delay, but it was inevitable. It has taken Talga nearly 10 years to get this far. Developing a mine, production facility, finance, customer trust, & customer demand, all simultaneously is no easy task.
Milestones to come:
1) DFS - due tomorrow.
2) Supply MOUs / offtake agreements.
3) JV agreement and project financing by November.
4) Regulatory approvals for Stage 1 by March 2022.
5) EV anode pilot plant production commissioning & commencement early 2022.
DISC - I HOLD.
Supply MOU signed with FREYR. Key takeaways:
1) Talga and FREYR to work towards commecail supply of Talnode range of anode materials. They are trialling the higher margin Talnode -Si product as well.
2) FREYR is developing a low emission battery production facility in Norway to deliver 43 GWhr of battery production by 2025. This is very similar to Talga's anode production ramp up, which will have capacity to deliver 100 GWhr of anode material by 2025 - 2026 (assuming mine permits released on schedule).
3) FREYR is currently building a battery pilot plant which will, coincidentally, begin production about the same time as Talga's pilot plant.
4) A number of supply optinos are being considered, including licencing Tagla's anode production technology, and co-locating production facilities in Norway.
The DFS, financing, and JV news yet to come.
DISC- I HOLD.
Two presentations over the past week. Firstly, paydirt's Battery Minerals Conference. Key takeaways:
1) Massive demand for anode material in Europe over the next 10 years (5x growth) present a unique opportunity.
2) Talnode-C and Talnode-S will be the greenest anode product on the market.
3) Electric Vehicle Anode qualification plant construction underway to allow final phase of customer testing / acceptance process.
4) Detailed Feasibility Study to be released by June 30 for Stage 1 plant to start operation in 2023. This will in turn enable financing, and commercial negotiations to be fianlised.
Secondly, Benchmark EV Fest - Graphite vs Silicon presentation. Key takeways:
1) Talnode-Si approach is focused on a practical, scalable solution for silcon anode dosing, using Talga's proprietary graphene coating technology.
2) Commercial samples in multitude of testing programs with battery / auto companies, large scale trials with high-performance auto brand underway.
3) Exploration of advanced commercial partners underway.
DISC - I HOLD
Talga Group reported the completion fo the two feasiblity studies into the feasiblity of a Talga anode refinery in the UK as part of UK Govt. funded study into the electricication of the automotive industry in the UK.
the report concluded it is technically and commercially feasibly to refine and produce Talga andoes on the UK, and Talga will continue to work with the UK government and other stakeholders in the context of Tagla's expansion plans.
A big news month for Talga, as the long awaited DFS is due by the end of the month, and the MOU with Mitsu expire om June 30.
DISC - I hold.
Honda Declares All Sales Will Be Electric Vehicles by 2040.
Automakers around the globe are rushing into the EV sector as the industry shifts to electrification and self-driving cars. Among them, Jaguar Land Rover has vowed to go fully electric by 2025, and Volvo by 2030.
Article here..
Also, Talga responds to speeding ticket issued today, after share price surges 30%, on very high turnover:
"The Company notes that the battery materials sector, in which Talga operates, has recently seen a significant increase in positive sentiment. This sector wide performance may
be related to a number of positive factors relevant to the sector during this period including but not limited to:
Strong tailwinds for Talga......
An EV Anode Pilot Plant update has been released. Key Takeaways:
The delay is a little disappointing, but it is clear the EVA Pilot plant is quite complex as indicated in the 3-D images provided of the plant, and I imagine there was some delay co-ordinating and optimising the plant design.
CEO, Mark Thompson said this in relation to the Pilot Plant: ".....The EVA plant will now provide the larger EV quality anode samples that our automotive battery customers require for their procurement processes and planned production schedules."
Sweating on commercial agreements, with MITSUI partner MOU expiring June 30!
DISC - I HOLD
Lulea Municipality article states:
"It is clear that the Australian-Swedish company Talga Resources, which manufactures battery components for, among other things, electric cars, will establish itself in the area."
Lets hope they are right....
Also found this article reporting the Industrial Development that will be the hoem of Talga has been approved here...The article refers to a company called "Talga Graphene" will be the anchor tenant.
Also, council have approved upgrade to access roads for development...
Vittangi Anode Project DFS has been delayed to June 2021, reportedly due to COVID-19 related site access delays.
Talga advise the delay will not impact the project dleivery timeline, and information provided to date is sufficient to progress development work and allow JV negotiations and Due Dilligence to continue.
Although the reported three month delay in the DFS seems like a worryingly long delay.
DISC - I HOLD
This has huge implications fo rthe anode supply chain in Europe - Link here.
How the European Arctic secures the European Green Deal
Mark Thompson presented a this event, whick focused on three sectors:
1) Minerals extraction
2) Battery production
3) Recycling
Mark presented in the second segment, and I have attached a few relevant slides. mark highlighted that is is rleatively easy to build and commsision a battery production facility, but it takes many years to bild and develop the battery materials supply chain. He made a point of saying government needs to get behind this supply chain, as the challenges are enormous for the industry.
Bo Normark, of InnoEnergy (member of European Battery Alliance), re-iterated Mark's comments regarding the supply chain challenges that lay ahead for the industry in Europe.
Up to 700k tonnes of anode material will be needed by European battery manufacturers by 2030. Virtually all of the supply is curenlty improted, and relatively dirty synthetic anode.
This was presented last month. Intersting takeaways:
1) Vittangi Detailed Feasibility Study due this month.
2) Mark Thompson flagged an increase / expansion in production is forthcoming in updated feasibility / scoping studies, due to increasing customer demand.
3) Pilot plant construction underway, and will be operational this year, with a capacity of up to 5000 Tonnes per annum. This is required for the final customer validation phase for anode materials.
4) Commercial / financing negotiations are underway with partners and customers, but no timeline other than finalising critical contracts this year.
5) Confirmed 19 000 Tonne per annum Stage 1 plant is on track to be up and running in 2023.
My investment thesis for Talga Group is here.
This week Talga Group have placed adds for the following rolees:
Mining Engineer - Roles include: ...focus on developing a new mining project with medium, long-term and LOM plans. You will also be undertaking necessary engineering work for gaining mining approvals. Responsibilities will include optimizing mine designs and liaising with engineering and mining personnel to ensure the mine plans are executed efficiently and safely. You will provide guidance and support on the development of the mining contract for the new mine.
Process Engineer - Roles include: ....you will be part of a Swedish Project team and will assist management in obtaining licenses and permits for the production facilities. Support in building supply chains, relationships with suppliers, assist the procurement and contracts group.
The immediate plan is setting up the design, implementation and start-up of the process for making materials from mined ores for lithium ion batteries.
Environmental Officer - Roles include: As Environmental Officer, you will be a key figure in Talga's continued establishment in Norrbotten. You will be responsible for environmental issues related to Talgas mining operations in Nunasvaara (Vittangi) and planned plant in Luleå. You will run Talgas' environmental work, where you are responsible for environmental management systems based in ISO 14001. You will work with: exploitation permits, water samples, environmental impact monitoring, documentation, project environmental plans.
It confirms Talga group are pushing ahead with developing the trial mine and pilot plant....
On the eve of the announcement of the SPP results, Talga Group's largest shareholder, Smedvig has completely sold out of Talga Group, via a bookbuild at what appears to be the SPP price of $1.45.
Talga Group have announced a cpaital raise to fund the construction of a pilot anode plant.
The construction cost of the pilot plant is approximately $22M, and will have a capacity of 200 Tpa. This is a crucial step prior to full production, whereby customers assess product quality at production scale.
The Pilot plant will be operational in Q1 2022, and will likely lead to off-take supply agreements by Q1 2023. In time to underwrite the construciton of the Stage 1 facility.
Disc - I HOLD.....
The most significant issue/risk facing Talga Group is resolving its capital requirements. In its Niska Study, they reported:
"The ultimate funding strategy will based on the negotiations with potential project partners and financiers, and the conditions of the equity capital markets and relative debt financing opportunities, at the time of the final investment decision. Negotiations with potential funding partners have commenced and the Company has formed the view that there are reasonable grounds to assume the likelihood of these funding options to be available to the Company as and when required.
With the assistance of its financial and transaction adviser, Morgan Stanley, the Company is advancing discussions with third parties regarding funding for its progressed Vittangi Anode Project. It is intended these discussions be extended to include Talga’s Niska Project. "
Given the significant demand, and excellent economics of the project, I have assumed Talga Group is able to finance the project with 70% debt, with Talga Group needing to raise the remaining 30%.
There are many ways the projects may be financed. For the purpose of valuation, and based on the feasiblity studies, I have estimated their capital requirements to be:
Stage 0 - Sustainment capital to 2023: $20 M (share count increase to 330 M)
Stage 1 - 30% financing of stage 1: $70 M (share count increase to 390M - assumed share price $1.20)
Stage 2: 30% financing of stage 2: $500 M (share count increase to 530M-assumed share price $3.69)
Based on $100 M depreciation costs for plant, and the capital dilution, I'll need to revise my overly exuberant valuation.
Prospective Anode Producer, Talga Group, have released their Scoping Niska Study. Key Takaways:
1) Stage 2 programmed to commence 2025.
2) Stage 2 will quintuple production form 19 kTonnes to +100 kTonnes per annum.
3) NPV of Stage 2 development estimated to be between $2.4 -$4.6 BN USD.
4) Mining permits to be lodged mid-2021.
Talga Resources share price has taken off today, because of this
Elon may well be on holidays for all I know.
DISC - I hold.
Talga Resources announced this week they have been awarded a $1.8 M grant to complete a feasibility study to into the development of an anode refinery in the UK for their Talnode-C product.
Importantly, should the study outcomes be favourable, it is expected that an investment memorandum for capital funding under the UK Govt's ATF capital investment scheme will be prepared, providing further funding / partnership optons. The study will be completed by the end of March 2021.
Talga Resources also recieved $520K to complete a preliminary feasibility study into the commercialisation of their Talnode-Si product, with a view to assessing the production of this product in the UK. The study is expected to be completed by June 2021.
Key takeaways:
1) Detailed feasibility study to be issued by Talga in March 2021.
2) LOI is non-binding, and non-exclusive to enter co-development agreements by June 30, 2021.
3) LKAB is a Swedish state owned mining and minerals group, predominantly in iron ore operatinos in Northern Swedish, close to the Talga Vittangi project. They have $5 Billion AUD annual turnover, and are regarded as a high tech miner. Presumably, they bring a great deal of mining development IP to the table, and local knowledge.
4) The LOI only covers the 1st stage of the development, Vittangi.
LKAB’s rationale for the interest in Talga
Growth within the industrial minerals market is a strategic activity to reduce dependence on the iron ore market which today accounts for around 90 per cent of the external sales. There is also a clear sustainability-based rationale coupled with the growth ambition, to recycle and upgrade byproducts and waste streams. Additionally, the growth will be accelerated through selected acquisitions and investments that offer synergies with LKAB’s market, operations and sustainability ambitions. Talga, with its proximity to LKAB’s existing mining operations in Northern Sweden, may offer synergies with resources, skills and infrastructure. There are also potential commercial synergies with sales and distribution, including the developments in the ReeMAP project that will produce both phosphorus and rare earth elements through recycling mine waste.
For those curious about the Talga story, you can here the CEO present here
Anode producer, Talga Resources, presented at the CSIRO Electromechanical Energy Storage Series. Some key takeaways:
European battery production to grow by around 275 GWhr per annum over the next 10 years. This equates to an anode demand of approximately 275 000 Tonnes per annum.
Talga will have production capacity of 19 000 Tonnes per annum by 2024, and report they have EOIs from battery manufacturers for more than 300% of this capacity.
Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS) indicates potential pre=tax annual profit of $188m USD, an IRR of 55%, based on planned production capacity of 19 000 Tonnes per annum. PFS indicates Talga will be the low cost producer of anode material - with lower costs than the majority of Chinese competitors. Talgo will also have the lowest meissions per tonne of anode, with less than 5% of the CO2 emissions per Tonne compared to Chinese competitors.
Scoping studies underway to expand Anode production (Niska Scoping Study) well above 19000 tonnes per annum.
Details of Talnode -Si anode performance provided. Indicates approxiamtely 85% of battery capacity retained after 70 cycles. Pretty good, and opens up new markets, such as aircraft, which require high power densities.
Battery anode producer, Talga resources Ltd, have announced they have increased Talnode-Si production capacity 10-fold due to strong demand and psitive feedback from customers.
Production of graphene-graphite precursors required to make Talnode®-Si have been added to the Niska process flowsheet and scoping study, pushing release to November.
Positive market feedback and technical development lead Talga to fast-track preliminary feasibility studies for stand-alone European silicon anode refinery.
MD, Mark Thompson said:
"The positive trajectory of interest in Talnode®-Si from battery customers and our emerging project development partners is most pleasing. The recent market recognition of our pragmatic approach in using metallurgical-grade silicon to provide performance at significantly lower potential
cost is a sign that our team had great forethought in the development of this unique product and process.
We look forward to fast-tracking the development and commercialisation of Talnode®-Si as part of our vertically integrated business strategy to provide high performance anode material at a competitive price and produced to the highest environmental standards."
EDIT: Key outcomes that are potential tailwinds & a threat!:
1) Telsa plan to ramp battery production / demand from 0.1 TWhr per annum in 2022 to 3.5 TWhr by 2030. A 35 fold increase.
2) Telsa developing a silicon anode - Tesla are planning to develop a Silicon only anode. If they can do this, graphite will not be required in Tesla Lithium ion batteries. However, there are tremendous challenges in achieving this, and it may be some time away.
So, a positive and a negative. In the short to medium term, strong demand. In the long term, Technology may redner the graphite anode obsolete.
DISC - I hold, but will be capping my holding at 5% max.
The limiting factor interview here.
Talga resources reported an increase in their Natural Graphite inventory to 55.3 million tonnes, with 5-15 Million tonnes of exploration targets identified for exploration / definition.
August 5, 2020 announcement:
Intiially, the development was to be carried out in two stages. The 2 stages will nw be combined into one stage. Key takeaways:
The feasibility study predicts the cost of production of the core product Talnode-C to be $1 852 USD per tonne, and the anticipated sale price of Talenode-C to be $11 205 USD. The is a gross margin in excess of 80%!
At 19 tonne sof Talnode-C produced per annum, the feasibility study indicates TLG will generate $178 M USD of gross margin per annum. The initial mine life is 20 years, but the Vittangi precinct is us yet to be fully explored.
June 24, 2020 announcement. Key takeaways:
Based on the strong interest from industry and the anticipated permitting timeframes in Sweden, the Company has decided to expand the Niska scoping study of the Vittangi Project to review significantly larger anode production options. The outcomes will be in addition to the current Nunasvaara South PFS production plan of 19,000 tpa.
June 19, 2020 - Tolga Resources Vittangi Graphite Project is designated a mineral deposit of national interest. Refer to article here
Under the Swedish Environmental Code, deposits of valuable substances or materials can be defined as being of national interest, meaning municipalities and central government agencies may not authorize activities that might prevent or significantly hinder exploitation of the mineral deposit.
The national interest area covers the entirety of Talga’s currently defined Vittangi graphite resources and undrilled extensional deposits. The decision takes note of the European Commission’s listing of graphite as a critical raw material and their warning that a lack of access to such critical commodities could slow the development of fossil-free energy sources.
“The SGU noted the Vittangi graphite deposit’s significance to the country’s supply capacity and its special material properties and concluded the deposit constitutes a unique natural asset of valuable substances or materials,” Talga said in a media statement.
“Further, they consider locally produced graphite could help strengthen the competitiveness of the Swedish battery manufacturing industry and that, as the known highest grade graphite deposit in the world, Vittangi could ‘meet a great need not only within Sweden but internationally’.”
VITTANGI HAS A TOTAL JORC RESOURCE OF 12.3MT AT 25.5% GRAPHITE (“CG”), THE HIGHEST RESOURCE GRADE OF ANY JORC/NI 43-101 GRAPHITE DEPOSIT IN THE WORLD
Excellent deep dive into Talga Resources' Product here.
Post a valuation or endorse another member's valuation.