Company Report
Last edited 6 years ago
PerformanceCommunity EngagementCommunity Endorsement
ranked
#53
Performance (75m)
17.8% pa
Followed by
255
Straws
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#ASX Announcements
stale
Added 6 years ago

In today's quarterly it looks like they have downgraded their initial FY19 targets. Small miss (~NZD8.75m versus NZD9m) but given the valuation and where VHT are in the life-cycle of their product/story, the market needs to see sustained or accelerating growth. For me, the results suggest that market sahre growth and APRU growtrh are slower to acheive, thus a lower valaution. Guidance/expectation management is key as I detailed in my first straw in October 18 and VHT may have committed this faux pas. This quarterly doesn't help so I suspect the SP will struggle although as this is a somewhat unquie story, I'm not sure how it'll trade. If weaker, no rush to buy but be ready once the SP overreacts and underappreciates the trajectory of the business again.

#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 6 years ago

Relatively unique product that is seeing fast adoption in the US. Market share at ~3% but targeted to get to 9% this FY. Company funded for both R&D ambitions as well as selling the product aggressively. Another unique aspect is the their R&D directly increases their TAM. Current exam rate is ~USD2 with R&D pipeline expected to get it closer to USD8 per exam. Few companies can growth their charge rate, thus TAM so effectively. Some "blue sky" comes from their work with the UK health system. Stock looks expensive at first but can grow into its multiple and then some in time, just need a longer term focus. In the current environment, stocks like VHT can hold premium multiples for longer if they execute well and typically beat their guidance on a regular basis (guidance managemetn becomes a key risk).