Forum Topics VBTC VBTC Perspective

Pinned straw:

Added 2 months ago

I've had a few family and friends reach out recently helpfully highlighting for me that bitcoin has "crashed".

Thanks?

It's weird how, unlike other assets, people love to dunk on you when the market price moves against you. I have held a negative view on bank shares for a long time, but I cant imagine sending a snarky message to shareholders I know because the price fell.

What is it about BTC that engenders so much schadenfreude?

Aaaanyway, it did prompt me to compare it against other more "sensible" assets. Not so much to enter into petty sniping and point scoring (I'll save that for twitter), but because it hopefully offers some useful context.

In doing so, it's pointless to look over any meaningful timeframe. At least for the point I'm trying to make. There's just very few assets of scale that can compete with a ten year CAGR of 75%pa. And even a perma-bull like me will acknowledge that such an insane rate of return cant be sustained over the long term. Even digital trees dont grow to the sky, so that's a dangerous thing to extrapolate.

The point is to try and tease apart risk, quality and volatility over the short term. As we all know, these rarely have any meaningful relationship over shorter periods of time (which is, in part, what we long term investors try to exploit).

For example, if I had put my money into a passive index fund a year ago, I'd have outperformed an investment in a bitcoin ETF, but not by much...

8042bc1a559c136a681d5f7c1b8852dc90537c.png

Yeah, dividends need to be included, but that hardly leads to a massive difference. Which is interesting given the extreme difference in the (perceived) risk profiles of these two ETFs.

Speaking of the banks, here's how CBA (arguably the best Aussie bank) has performed relative to the Vanguard bitcoin ETF since it hit it's June high0b17aa2e8a4d3ac3df777b3f8c894f4237bb5f.png

Bitcoin is down ~10% in the last 4 months, but CBA shares are down ~18%.

Yes, I've been extremely selective in my timeframe here. But my point is that so have the people who are dunking on bitcoin lately. The 4 month performance of CBA is as irrelevant to any sensible bull case, and the same is true of the last 4 week performance of bitcoin.

Besides, this is entirely normal for bitcoin. Since 2017, there have been at least 10 drawdowns of 25% or more, 6 bigger than 50% and 3 bigger than 75%. Every dip was, with hindsight, an incredible buying opportunity.

My point is that short term volatility says NOTHING about risk or quality. Not for CBA, not for a passive ETF, and not even for magic internet beans. Not that all of these things dont have genuine, legitimate risks. Only that volatility is not one of them.

Final thought -- it's at times like these that I always remind myself of Lynch's maxim: "Know what you own, and why you own it".

The bull case for bitcoin hasn't changed in the last month. If anything, it's gotten stronger. That doesnt mean it cant go lower. I have no idea what it does over the next 6-12 months, but history suggests it could easily go much lower.

If it does, the only thing that will bother me is all the hot takes from uncle bob :)


AbelianGrape
Added a month ago

Yep, it's awful. I teach a Masters Data Literacy course, and one of the topics we cover is about how to adjust the vertical axis to spin your data. The one benefit I found in this ABC article is that it has now given me another example graph to use in that class next year:

a37c1226f2f3f6ad65f705cf9a0097aed259f6.png

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Mujo
Added a month ago

To be fair that's how most financial graphs are shown i.e.

6cc06bbf4bb7124f828a6edfc48d2f88bca862.png

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Strawman
Added a month ago

Spectacularly dumb, ill-informed nonsense. Demonstrably so with most of the assertions Verrender makes.

Honestly, it's not a different perspective that triggers me -- each to their own, I say. What gets me is all these false assertions that are presented as fact, when even an ounce of due diligence would, at the very least, cause you to temper the rhetoric. I mean, isn't the job of journalism to get to the truth?

I shouldn't complain. The fact it is so misunderstood is what makes it such a compelling opportunity.

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topowl
Added a month ago

Ah yes, that old chestnut with the axis..

I just didn’t know the story got through the gatekeepers at the ABC.

i know firsthand how much rigour they are put through to keep some resemblance of balance…but dear lord that was biased enough to be on sky news…lol

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BigStrawbs70
Added a month ago

This is probably in the top 5 dumbest and most ill-informed articles ever written. Anyone with access to the internet can see that the Genius Act is focused on Stablecoins, not Bitcoin. Sure, Bitcoin got caught up in the excitement, but if you are going to put your neck out as a credible journalist, you need to do some research. 

If nothing else, a quick Google search will show just how normal a pullback of the likes we are now seeing is. @Strawman puts it so well: you cannot get on board with Bitcoin and that is fine, but if you are going to bag it, at least make sure you have the bare minimum of facts. I really can't say how much I regret reading this article and wasting a few minutes of my life.... 

As someone with over 50% of their net worth invested in Bitcoin, I currently have 1 regret... I don't have additional funds to buy more at these discounted prices.

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DrPete
Added a month ago

Wow @BigStrawbs70, "50% of net worth in Bitcoin". That's a massive bet. Have to admit reading that made me flinch - it goes against a few deeply ingrained principles of mine. Each to their own, of course. I admire your courage and wish you every success. So this isn't a criticism. In fact, the opposite, your approach made me stop and question why I had my gut reaction. And my response is unrelated to Bitcoin specifically, I'd have the same reaction to 50% invested in any single volatile investment.

I'd value hearing your different perspective on a couple of commonly held investing principles:

1) Diversification: Even with my highest conviction investments, I'm not confident enough to put 50% in one spot. If a casino had roulette wheels with 2 blacks to every red, I might be willing to put 50% on black across 10 tables. But wouldn't put all 50% on a single bet. I'm guessing your conviction behind Bitcoin is just massively bigger than all other potential investments?

2) Survival: If you get a massive cash need (eg medical needs) at a time Bitcoin is down, that could hurt. For many, a 50% bet that goes sour could derail them for many years. But maybe you have this covered with cash elsewhere or overall size of portfolio relative to current and potential expenses. Admittedly I'm writing this from the perspective of being retired. Our net worth is plenty for my family to be very comfortable, so I don't feel the need to take big bets. And I no longer have business or salary income to help me recover from a big loss.

Again, please don't take this as criticism. It's fascination at someone taking a very different approach to investing. Variety keeps life spicy!

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BigStrawbs70
Added a month ago

Hi @DrPete Firstly all good, I 100% understand and appreciate your question. It is good to have folks challenge what I am doing as if I cannot explain it, then I need to reflect on what I am doing.

Let me start with a disclaimer. I am not suggesting for one minute anyone should have more than a few % of their portfolio in Bitcoin. For me, I have always had reasonably high holdings of the companies I invest in; my real life portfolio is 95% Bitcoin, Berkshire, Soul Patts and the NASDAQ top 30. I do give myself a few % to directly invest in companies to play with but I like the idea of investments on autopilot and just add to them each quarter or so when I have some spare cash. Not that long ago, Berkshire and SoulPatts were over 60% of my portfolio alone but Bitcoin has obviously gone much much higher since then.

I should also highlight that Bitcoin did not start out as 50% of my net worth. I got into Bitcoin reasonably early, and have been buying ever since. So I did not sell my house or sell my Berkshire or SoulPatts shares. So while I still DCA into Bitcoin, the total has risen to over 50% (pretty much) from its price appreciation.

So with that background out of the way, in terms of your questions:

As touched on above, Bitcoin price appreciation has seen it grow to this level in my portfolio and I have a strong conviction that it will be many times higher in 10/20/30 years. Bitcoin will continue to be volatile for a period of time yet but I have held during the 80% pullbacks and I was fine with that, similar to when Berkshire has 'crashed' in the past as well. Further, Bitcoin, NASDAQ, Berkshire and SoulPatts provide massive diversification and combined have beaten the market (in whatever way you want to measure it) by a very wide margin. Sure, Uncle Warren is stepping down and Uncle Robert at SoulPatts will also step away soon but I am very comfortable with the culture they have created.

I am, for all intents and purposes, retired also and have structured my finances to have 2 years of 'cash' (mixture of AUD, USD and some Gold) on the sidelines to ensure I do not have to dip into the principal when 'things' go a bit crazy. BTW: The USD and AUD are spread across cash in the bank and 4 fixed term deposits that come due in 3, 6, 9 and 12 months duration; the theory is this keeps the cash in real terms the same and means I always have cash at hand and more available if needed. I should also highlight that 2 years reflects that I know large drawdowns are not only possible, but are the price of admission for these crazy internet beans.

Apologies for the long reply but I wanted to give the correct context on why I am being a bit crazy lol and what I have also set up to ensure I sleep well at night, even when Bitcoin has its normal drawbacks such as recently.

Hope the above makes some kind of sense.

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DrPete
Added a month ago

Awesome, thanks for your thoughtful reply @BigStrawbs70. Agree that NASDAQ, Berkshire and Soul Patts provide solid diversification to balance your Bitcoin bet.

There's truth in "let the winners run". So I can understand why you've taken that approach with Bitcoin.

My personal approach, for most shares, is to stop further investing once a holding is >5% of my portfolio, and start to trim once it is >10%. If the stock is popping faster than I'm trimming it can still become a big holding.

Eg, I've been regularly trimming Stealth, but it still got to around 30% of my portfolio at one point. As it turns out, I would have done well by leaving the money in Stealth. But I believe I've reduced risk by spreading some of the gains. In some cases that money has done better than if I'd left it in Stealth. In other cases, it's sitting in opportunities that I think have higher potential ROI than Stealth. But Stealth is still over 15% of portfolio. I'll keep trimming that about 0.5% a month until it's back to 10%. Or faster if I think it becomes over-valued.

Overall I love the simplicity of your 4 big holdings. That certainly involves less research time than my approach requires. But I enjoy the process. And Narelle is happy that it keeps me busy in retirement and not annoying her too much :).

I'll continue to watch your Bitcoin bet with great interest. I'm comfortable sitting on the sidelines. But I find both the tech and investment opportunity fascinating. No schadenfreude from me. To the moon!

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thunderhead
Added a month ago

Fret not @Strawman. All the boomers and boomers-to-be are just jealous they weren't along the ride for the absurd returns Bitcoin has posted since inception, despite several stomach-churning drops (will this time be any different? This isn't even "real" pain yet going by its history). I guess they are feasting on their fully franked bank dividends - all power to them!

Little doubt that it is looking ugly, especially at a time when its fellow risk assets have largely held steady. Is it a leading indicator of worse things to come for equities? Or do we have some divergence and correlations are breaking down (this would be a good thing if Bitcoin is a true hedge). There will be a time to start buying again, but I am inclined to wait and see until some sustainable green shoots emerge in the price action.

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tomsmithidg
Added a month ago

Mmmm fully franked bank dividends... music to my ears :D

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thunderhead
Added a month ago

It's music till it stops playing ;)

Don't get me wrong...I love 'em too, but not at the expense of the total return picture.

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BigStrawbs70
Added 2 months ago

My 2c here…,

Many, in fact the vast majority, still don’t really understand what Bitcoin is and why it is not Crypto per se.

So those who think it is a scam or otherwise have not done the work are happy to say ‘I told you so’ when we get dips like this whereas a bit of research will show this Is perfectly normal and is in fact a small’ish decline compared to history but we could well go lower yet. However, when the price rises they also say oh this won’t end well…. Yes I am generalising but hopefully you get my point.

Anyhow, as Bitcoin is over half of my holdings in my SMSF it is not great to see how much I am down but equally I sleep well at night as I know why I hold it.

In fact, I just purchased some more this morning. It is business as usual folks.


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skaex
Added a month ago

Hi @BigStrawbs70 I’m looking into setting up an SMSF to roll over some of my super into BTC. I’ve been researching SMSF "experts" who specialise in Bitcoin (UDO SMSF and Easy Super in particular), but I’ve noticed a few red flags (in some). The alternative seems to be boutique SMSF specialists, but they’re charging an arm and a leg for their services. Are there any SMSF specialists you’d recommend?

Disclaimer: I have more than 50% of my RL investments in BTC and have been in the space for a few years now. I don’t need more conviction, just more fiat. :)

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BigStrawbs70
Added a month ago

Ha @skaex

I use eSuperFund and have been for many years. They are cheap and while you do need to do some coding of transactions, the vast majority of matters are automated. They also take care of all the paperwork for establishing the SMSF. You just need to answer a few questions and sign your life away on a few pages.

The only potential downside, which I am fine with but others may have a different view, is to get the full automated services means you have to use CMC.

Once set up, you can buy and sell shares, fixed terms, property, or anything that you want. Again, the extent to which the service is automated will just depend on what you use their software for. So you could hold your Bitcoin on your preferred platform in the name of your SMSF or, as I prefer to do these days, just hold it via an ETF. With these folks, you have full choice to do as you want.

It is certainly worth checking them out.

To confirm, I do not get any commission or anything for recommending them. I am just suggesting as I find the platform and their services provide good and great value.


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skaex
Added a month ago

Thanks @BigStrawbs70! I’ll definitely check them out. I usually keep all my BTC in self-custody (not your keys not your BTC :), but I can see why holding it via a BTC ETF in an SMSF makes sense.

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BigStrawbs70
Added a month ago

No problem at all @skaex

I personally think we are past the 'not your keys not your Bitcoin' stage given the adoption of Bitcoin into the financial system. I also shudder to think about losing my keys or something happening to me and my family cannot access the keys.

Yes, there are multi-sigs and the like, but I personally do not see any advantages of self-custody these days. When I first had Bitcoin I did self-custody as regulations and lawmakers could have gone either way but we now have full adoption into the broader financial system. So there is no chance of Bitcoin being banned or confiscated in Australia, or most other advanced western countries.

If we ever got to a stage where the government banned it, they already know you own it even if you are using self-custody. A knock at the door could be expected in that dark dystopian world at 2am in the morning. So the notion of being fully in control of your Bitcoin via self-custody reminds me of Bane's quote in the Dark Knight Rising 'Do you feel in control' :)

All that said, if my money was held in a different country without property rights and the rule of law that we are so lucky to enjoy, then the conversation is totally different.

Lastly, I lean to the view that 'not your keys not your coins' is like saying 'not your shares not your ownership rights' when it comes to holding the NASDAQ ETF. OK, it is not a perfect analogy but hopefully you get my point.

All that said, I guess one of the cool things in this space is that there are options so we can all do what we are most comfortable with. As a wise Strawman has said: You do you my friend.

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jcmleng
Added 2 months ago

Discl: Not Held.

Now, to be clear, I am flirting with the "devil", but hey, when it comes to investing, never say never.

For some context, I flirted with Crypto "day trading" some years back - this was when BTC was barely $20,000-$30,000. I made small coin, then lost it all and ended up with a smallish loss, the cost of that "education". It did force me to better understand how crypto works, and more importantly, the simultaneous power and evil of leveraged trading (never again, have sworn to the Lord).

But @Strawman's flying of the crypto flag and the recent "correction" had me looking at the VBTC chart. Which is, actually, very interesting, technically.

Think I am seeing:

  • A reasonably clear Head & Shoulders reversal pattern - marked with "S", "H" and "S"
  • Then the plunge below the neckline of that pattern - marked "Neckline - up to now, this is pretty textbook price reversal behaviour
  • The theory then says that the price will generally move the distance between Head and Neckline, DOWN from where the Neckline is breached - purple vertical lines


Where the second purple line falls to around ~$27.35 is looking to be a rather interesting entry zone for VBTC ie (1) it is what the H&S theory says should happen (2) it is literally at the 50% retracement level of $27.45 from the long term bottom of Jul 2024 (3) coinciding with a support area ~$26.92 from Nov 2024 (4) with a further support area around $25.18 to provide some buffer if BTC falls further.

Its interesting enough for me to revisit @Strawman's crypto posts and see if opening a small position might make sense ...

87ff0dcd90c50e87eb86ba55f909ade8a7a10f.png

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Strawman
Added 2 months ago

Not to be a pedant @jcmleng, but I have never been, and never will be, an advocate for "cRyPto".

Bitcoin and Fartcoin (and it's ilk) may share some similarities in terms of the underlying technology, but they couldn't be more different.

Like saying a penny dreadful cash burning minerals explorer is the same as Berkshire Hathaway. They are both equities, sure. But not even close to being in the same league.

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thunderhead
Added a month ago

Nice TA @jcmleng. I also happen to think we are close to a buy point (given a multi-year outlook), but it may have a flush lower to hit those support levels below before it takes off again.

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