#wini Your valuation of 8CO is by far the stronger of the existing 2 valuations on SM, and hence the main reason SM consensus valuation suggests 8CO is substantially undervalued. Your valuation seems to rely heavily on the exclusive Fed Gov panel win of 8CO, leading you to estimate future increase of $5-7m in ARR. That feels like a very big assumption. If I understand correctly, all that has happened is that 8CO is the exclusive preferred supplier. I haven't seen any reference to a "mandate" for any dept to use Expense8, all that 8CO has said is that they "could" use Expense8. My experience with govt preferred supplier panels is that they are no guarantee of much or any additional work. I'd be thinking 8CO would be excited to just get a quarter of the additional depts on board, in which case the addition ARR from this panel "win" would be much lower. If this lower outcome were to occur, how much would this impact your valuation?

Disclosure: I hold 8CO on SM and IRL, but my patience is being tested. There were a lot of superlatives and references to "record" results in their last financial report. But the facts are revenue dropped and is lower than in 2016, CardHero has now been around for a couple of years and is yet to take off, they went through two rounds of capital raising diluting shares, and will almost certainly go through more capital raisings in the not too distant future. Feels like much of the valuation is hope in the future rather than reflection of track record.