Some notes after watching the business update presentation (thanks for sharing @Remorhaz )

• Record quarter for cash receipts -- $17.6m, which account for 37% of the total cash receipts for FY23
• Positive operating cash flow for quarter and the full year -- FCF +'ve for the quarter. (this was promised at the start of the year)
• $40m in revenue (unaudited) for FY23 -- approx. 17% increase on prior year
• $14.6m in cash with no debt. Cash balance up 32% since Q3
• Costs stabilised. Expect no major changes. Staffing levels seem appropriate given growth expectations.
• Silverlink earnout now complete
• Level of engagement with prospects remains high
• All legacy Miya contracts renewed and upgraded (shows how embedded products are, and also makes upsell & integration of additional modules much easier. Also there's less support work required -- ie less cost)
• New sales of $7.3m for the quarter was ok, but unlike cash receipts far from a record. Some delays to EPR work in the UK likely having an impact here. Kate said sales will often be modular and staged.
• Already $33.7m of contracted and scheduled renewal revenue expected to be recognised in FY24 (this time last year that figure was $28.3m, so a 19% lift). A good reminder of how much visibility there is in this business.
• Kate didnt give guidance on what NPAT would look like in the current year, but said they expected continued strong revenue growth and stable costs -- so hopefully we should see a decent net margin start to emerge. At the very least, it seems they will be self-funding going forward. BUT things like geographic expansion or other investments could change that. More "colour" will be presented at the formal FY results

In general. I really like Kate's style. She's a straight shooter and I think she and the team are generating some tangible results in a sector that is notoriously slow and bureaucratic.

(Edit: Fixing broken link)

Alcidion is holding a webinar next Wednesday, July 27 at 11am AEST to discuss its latest quarterly result.

If you are interested in attending, use this link to register:

https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_mzmtG2o_S1SUan4lef_Unw

Just had a chat with Kate from Alcidion who is at the ASA conference in Melbourne.

A couple things of interest:

She reiterated that their customers are hyper defensive. In fact, any funding squeeze tends to be good as they force hospitals to increase efficiency.

Cash flow positive and very comfortable with the balance sheet.

She's quite excited about recent wins and how they should be able to increase penetration with these clients.

Good momentum with sales.

Alcidion reported a net cash outflow for the 3rd quarter of $0.4m, although this was impacted by the settlement of M&A costs from the Silverlink acquisition. Excluding that, Alcidion saw a net inflow of $1.6m. Full results here.

In terms of customer cash receipts, the picture is pretty pleasing on a year to date basis:

But, of course, expenses have also increased. Here's a chart from Claude Walker to give you a better picture of the cash flow history (this includes the Silverlink M&A costs). Note that cash receipts for the 3rd quarter are below where they were in the previous corresponding period.

For the quarter, the company reported $12.5m in new sales TCV (total contract value). $4.3m of this will be recognised in this financial year. So far in FY22 (ie. the first 9 months) Alcidion has generated $42.9m in new TCV, of which $12.9m will be recognised this year. That's a 93% lift on the same period last year, and over 4x where it was in FY20

All told, it's a decent result, with a lot of new sales won so far this year. A slowdown in quarter cash receipts, when compared to the previous corresponding period, isn't great but may just be timing issues (hard to tell).

The balance sheet is in good shape, and with around -$0.5m in free cash flow, and over $17m in the bank, there's no urgent funding requirements. Indeed, barring a major acquisition you'd have to expect the business should be self-sustaining going forward.

No guidance was given, but I'm thumb sucking around $33m in FY revenue -- that's a 27% lift on FY21. Based on that figure, shares are on a forward P/S of 7.5x. That bakes in a decent amount of growth.

Alcidion has expanded its existing agreement with Sydney Local Health District in regard to the Miya Precision remote patient monitoring system.

Originally established in July 2020 to manage covid home patients, it has now been expanded to include remote monitoring of patients with acute diverticulitus (a gastrointenstinal condition). This add $1.8m in total contract value over the next 3 years.

It's not huge -- boosting revenue by about 2% per year -- although its a good validation of the product (I'm assuming they would extend the contract if clinicians didnt find it useful) and it underscores the expanded use case potential for Miya among existing customers.

Full ASX announcement here.

MD Kate Quirke's presentation for the ASX Small and Mid-Cap Conference this week can be viewed on YouTube.

Worth a watch for anyone interested in their Miya Precision product and the UK opportunity.

Watch here

Alcidion saw a 36% jump in first half revenue to $11.1m, with gross profit up 38% due to an improved margin.

Revenue already contracted for FY21 is $21.7m, already 17% above FY20 full year result.

The business is right on the inflection point of break even, reporting an EBITDA loss of $0.9m. And with the fixed costs base now largely stabilised, we should see a big improvement on this front in coming periods. (although some new costs added in H1 will have a full half's impact in the full year results)

Cash receipts were strong up 17% and the business now has $12.5m cash at the bank.

Doubling that latest sales numbers, you get a P/S of around 11.

All told, the business has good sales momentum, a solid pipeline of opportunities, attractive economics (when at scale), and conditions seem to be returning to normal post covid.

Results announcement here

Disc: held

Alcidion's latest quarterly results are encouraging. The details have already been posted (thanks mmff), but i have added a few thoughts after listening to the conference call:

• Ongoing push from NHS to digitise is a strong tailwind, and ALC's ability to leverage existing systems without a full rebuild is an appealing option.
• Inbound inquiries are growing. New sales hires performing well.
• Dealing with covid challenges, and indeed the situation has helped underscore the value proposition 
• Cost base to stabalise in coming quarters with widening operating margins expected thereafter
• Quarter would have been cash flow positive except for a $3m South Tees payment that was received on first business day of Jan (i.e. a timing issue)
• Cash position strong
• revenue growth will depend on timing of sales -- expect some lumpiness as big contracts are secured.

I think ALC should be able to recognise ~$30m in revenue for FY21, which would put them on a forward price to sales of ~6.7. This doesnt seem ambitious for a business with a long runway and that is growing the top line at such a rapid rate. 

Alcidion has reported that South Tees Hospitals NHS trust has extended its contract by a further $2m to $11.3m over 5 years, to include the Smartpage product, cloud hosting and some managed services.

The original contract was only signed in November, and included MIYA precision and Better OPENeP systems.

South Tees are now using the full suite of Alcidion products, as well as a variety of managed services. South Tees manages over 1000 hospital beds, and aside from a significant contract win will represent a vital reference site for their UK sales team.

ASX announcement here

Alcidion has signed its largest ever deal for the Miya Precision product, worth $9.5m over 5 years. The vast majority of which represents recurring revenue. 

The deal is with the South Tees Hospitals NHS foundation trust. 

More than half of the contract value is to be booked in the current year, which takes locked revenue for FY21 to $20.2m, with 7 months of the year still remaining. Alcidion booked $18.6m in all of FY20.

Aside from the financials, this is a very positive step in my opinion.  It represents further evidence of traction in the UK market, as well as provides an important reference site and social proof.

ASX announcement here 

Alcidion's full year results came in pretty much as expected. 

Good to see the solid growth in recurring revenue, a healthy cash balance and some resilience in the face of covid.

Alcidion has a great product offering, important reference sites and good sales momentum. There's a big opportunity as healthcare goes digital, and they seem well positioned.

The company did stress the increased ramp up in investment needed to seize the opportunity. Scaling up began in earnest at the start of this calendar year and they expect the expanded cost base will start to stabalise during FY21.

This will delay cash flow breakeven, but I think it's a necessary investment. There's big first mover advantages when sectors are undergoing structural shifts. Not that the spend is guaranteed to deliver good results, but it's really unavoidable in my view.

On some rough numbers, assuming steady gross margins, it looks like ALC will not hit profitability until they get to close to $30m in sales -- which is likely a few years away.

They have over $15m in cash, and have a current operating cash burn of $2m pa, so they should be able to sustain themselves for a good while.

I still think $50m in sales by FY25 is possible, but with most of the growth in the second half of the period.

Anything can happen with the market price short term, but i think Alcidion remains a good bet for those working to a 3+ year timeframe

Alcidion's results were ok, with record cash receipts and cash flow positive for the qtr. $15.9m in cash at the bank.

FY revenue is expected to come in between $18.4-18.7m (up ~10% from FY19), and with $12.8m of contracted revenue already locked in for FY21. There's roughly another $4.5m locked in each year through to 2025.

For a business on >8x sales, it's really not enough.

$3.7m in contracted revenue was added over the quarter, double the same time last year. Over the past 12 months they've added around $14m -- but this is over multi-year contract periods.

It's great to be start starting FY21 with $12.8m already locked in, but remember that they started FY20 with $11.7m. Not all sales are recurring (~75% are), so there's still a lot of work to be won.

Still, i think that's possible.

With an expanded presence and resources, they should hopefully be able to build on the sales won last year -- especially given the covid tailwind. $6.8m in sales were added to FY20's starting position. If we assume $10m in new sales added for FY21, we'd get full year revenue of $22.8m in FY21 -- about 20% top line growth. 

$50m in sales by 2025 would require this growth to be sustained over that period.

Definitely achievable, but I wouldn't want to bank on more than that for valuation purposes.

ASX release here

Not huge news, but Alcidion resigning ACT Health for a further 2 years (in a deal worth $1.3m) for its patient management system is nice to see.

However, when the contract was last exteded in 2018 (see here), it was worth $1.27m for 2 years. It'd have been nice to see Alcidion increase the cost more (especially given the likely platform improvements over the last 2 years), or have bundled in other offerings.

So it's good that their solution is proving sticky, but would have been a very strong signal if they could have charged more. 

Alcidion has signed an inital 12 month contract with Sydney Local Health District valued at $560k.

Sydney LHD overseas 5 hospitals including Prince Alfred and Concord hospitals.

This is in part a result of the customer needing to remotely manage Covid-19 patients, but will have application well beyond that when fully rolled out. It's a good foot in the door, and has potential to be extended and broadened once the initial term has ended

The market has responded by puishing shares ~10% higher.

You can read the ASX announcement here

11/2/20

Alcidion has announced a further $1m in sold revenue since the end of the 2nd quarter, taking the total sold revenue so far in FY2020 to $15.4m. This compares to the $16.9m that was recorded in all of FY19.

The presentation also reiterates the size of the market opportunity, the increased investment in growth and the recently strengthened balance sheet. 

See here

No major new insights this quarter in temrs of the broader, long-term narrative.

Business remains well placed, it seems, to continue strong growth, especially with an apparent pick up in the uk market. However, increased investment in development, sales etc have seen cash outflows increase (and will continue to next quarter). 

The business has already total confirmed revenue of $15.4m for the full year (compared to $16.9m total last year). Alcidion has $17m in cash and term deposits. 

Alcidion's 4C quarterly cash flow statement, ending Dec31 2019, highlights:

• $3.5m worth of contracts sold in Q2
• $1.8m cash outflow
• $17m in cash & term deposits
• $15.5m in revenue already recogonised for FY20 (last year $16.9m total)
• Recurring revenue up 22.7% over the year
• Q3 cash outflows to worsen as company invests in development, sales and marketing.

4C here