Hi everyone,

wanted to ask does anyone have a solid understanding of the following:

• US insurance, copay, deductibles and drug tiers

A big part of the thesis with this is that Botanix buy down the copay to zero so essentially the cost of sofdra to the patient is the cost of the initial dermatologist visit or telehealth. However if there is a big deductible cost to deal with for a % of the TAM than this is an issue. Buying down the copay allows them to ship 11 refills to the customer without requiring payment details or further customer contact.

Looks like some tiers of drug bypass any unfulfilled deductible payment requirement, Will sofdra bypass the deductible component based on drug tier and only require the co-pay (Botanix are buying the patient copay down to zero in this case so only the deductible component is relative.

I am not easily able to find if Sofdra does or does not bypass the deductible based on tier and if this doesn't bypass the deductible I wonder what % of the plans would require patients to pay a deductible (assuming they haven't met their deductible limit already for the year which maybe not be that many people considering healthcare costs in the US)

There is no mention of deductibles in any of the commercial launch media, Botanix only mention that they expect $450 gross to net which possible only refers to the % of people that only have the copay portion and there will be no deductible requirements or they are not mentioning that some people will have a large deductible component to consider if they want the treatment.

I am looking further into this, any input would be greatly appreciated as I don't want to stand on a rake so to speak with this.

Hi Everyone,

For the sofdra launch and upcoming half year report from Botanix, I have done some conversions on the Kaken ecclock sales data to try and get an idea of if we launched on par with the Kaken ecclock launch what sort of revenue we might be looking at as a base case.

Unit sales estimate from Euroz table.

kaken 3Q report, target for annual 2,200m Yen this FY

Potential Sofdra sales using Ecclock unit sales adjusted for US population (to factor in some people not being insured I have used a factor of 2 for US pop : Japan Pop when in reality it is 2.6x

Estimating that of the total units of ecclock sold on average there were 2 scripts per individual. Botanix presentations suggest that it is on average a bit less than 2 scripts per individual.

I have worked off an average of 6 repeats per US user and the usual $450 / person and 0.65c AUD - USD.

With the sales team in place I would be hoping for a better launch and more traction than Japan had so thinking these numbers are possibly on the conservative side.

I am thinking this might be close to a base case for the launch considering we have *hopefully* a better sales force, more experience management and the platform factor as well.

Interested to hear everyone's thoughts on this as a base case, possibly reads as a bull case when you look at the numbers though.

Disc held IRL & SM