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Last edited 2 years ago
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#Bear Case
stale
Added 2 years ago

Hi @BoredSaint - there are some reasons I think to be cautious about Credit Corp's valuation. The Purchased Debt Ledger (PDL) business is a difficult business and I'm not sure the economics of the industry will be good for investors. The problem is that the money in this business is either won or lost on purchases of debt ledgers. Of recent times there has been little supply of PDLs (as banks, utilities and other sellers have pulled away from selling down their old, bad debts) and high demand, pushing prices up. Unfortunately, in this industry if someone overpays and has a problem, it doesn't emerge for quite a while, sometimes years. Because the debt books are always being wound down, anyone in a listed environment has to keep buying ledgers to show growth (as CCP has done in the last few years). So limited supply, high demand and institutional imperative to keep buying, means to me that these businesses will at some point struggle to show returns. This has been a factor in this industry for some years now and CCP as the biggest isn't unfortunately immune from it either.

I don't own CCP IRL or SM, nor any other debt collection/PDL businesses for this reason.