Company Report
Last edited 5 years ago
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#Bear Case
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Added 5 years ago

TIme to sell. Too expensive. The recent 4C is troubling. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190723/pdf/446sxv75mf62d4.pdf

It shows that the COGS keeps going up with sales. FY 2018 was about 84%. FY 2019 is about 78% ($26M). Staff and admin cost for 2019 are about $33M. Whilst record sales $33M, COGS is $26M and then still $33M of admin costs. On top of this they are spending capital to expand network ($5M/qtr).

To achieve a P/E of 50 they need $16.5M NPAT. To get that with $33M staff/admin costs and 60% COGS, they need revenue of $123M. Revenue in 2019 was $33M up from $19M in 2018

#Summary
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Last edited 5 years ago

Megaport provides software defined data links between data centres and benefits from the shift for business to use cloud services. Roughly 70% enterprises are adopting a hybrid-cloud strategy with most have two of more cloud service providers. This means that enterprises need to connect from their own private hosting arrangements to one or more cloud service providers. Megaport enables connectivity to the top 5 cloud service providers - AWS, Azure, Google, Alibaba and Oracle. Megaport is unique because it allows customers to acquire data links in minutes via its web portal rather than months it currently takes. It procures access to dark fibre (not owning it) and provides the services on top to get access to the cloud service providers. With this in place Megaport customers can use the web portal to define what they want and pay on a monthly service basis - just like software as service or infrastructure as a service that the cloud service providers provide. Megaport are providing a global Network as a Service Megaport is an enabler and not a competitor for cloud service providers. It allows them to extend their reach. Megaport was founded by Bevan Slattery, who is now chairman. He owns 33M of the 88M shares on offer.. He has also founded NextDC and Supoerloop wihich are both ASX listed companies as well as Pipe Networks and Asia Pacific Data Centres which were listed but have been acquired. Customers include NewsCorp, JB HiFi, and Woodside. Megaport operate in Asia Pacific, Europe and US. Asia Pacific is the most mature and US only a couple years old. US is a major focus.

#Financials
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Added 6 years ago

Half year results.

MP1 have doubled sales in 6 months. They have the same revenue for half year 2018 as full year 2017. Costs have remained static. 

MRR is now at $1.6M. This is 33% growth since EOY 2017.

 

#Financials
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Added 6 years ago
Megaport has no real debt but burns cash and has had capital raisings and will probably need another before profitability. For FY17 it made $30M loss, half of which was staff costs. Costs are now predicted to remain fairly static as they ramp up revenue. They have achieved their first key milestone of profitability after network costs (but before other costs such as staff). Revenue last year grew 300% with their monthly recurring revenue (MRR) $1.2M at 30/6/17. First quarter 2018 MRR grew 8% The reason Megaport is burning cash is because it is trying to create a network effect of being able to connect any enterprise to the cloud service providers in any region. There are 4000 data centres world wide and 80 on ramp locations to the cloud service providers. There are 165 megaport enabled data centres. With costs relatively stable now, the measure of success will be how quickly sales grow. To justify a P/E of 50 at the current share price ($3.40) Megaport need to generate $6M profit. i.e. they need sales to grow by $36M (after network costs) or roughly 3.5 times last year sales.