I’ve also been watching SiteMinder. This observation is a bit from left field, but it may have an impact on SDR in the short/med term.
Within 2 days, I heard 2 podcast references to hotels operating at low capacity, due to lack of staff availability and the subsequent flow on of price increases for accommodation to ensure operators are profitable.
My initial thought is that this is a headwind for SDR as there are less rooms to clip the ticket on. Alternatively, it could be a positive as operators need to ensure they fill rooms to a predetermined capacity to make a profit/break even. I don’t have a strong view either way, just another data point to consider.
Sources below:
Ref 1: “Imagine that China moves away from zero COVID. I'm not saying they will, I'm saying imagine, then all of a sudden, the demand for all sorts of basic materials, the demand for luxury goods. I'll give you just an example. I just went around Europe visiting clients and the hotel rooms that used to cost me 200 euros now costs 400 euros, and you can't get room service at night because they don't have enough staff anymore. What happens when the Chinese tourists come back? That probably goes from 400 euros to 600 euros.”
Excerpt from podcast, (my emphasis in bold) Louis-Vincent Gave: The Xi Pivot vs. The Powell Pivot October 20th, 2022
https://macrovoices.podbean.com/e/macrovoices-346-louis-vincent-gave-the-xi-pivot-vs-the-powell-pivot/
Ref 2: On The Call yesterday, Adam and Jun Bei discuss business travel, with hotels running low occupancy due to staffing issues and increasing prices to compensate. They note that business travel is strong but expect it to taper going forward re the higher costs to travel.
https://www.ausbiz.com.au/media/the-call-friday-21-october-?videoId=24901
Adam Dawes & Jun Bei Liu At 20.30
As a side note, the macrovoices podcast is interesting. It refers to a potential Xi pivot. That is, when China loosens covid restrictions, there may be a “flood” of liquidity that will be released from pent up Chinese demand.
