Looks like Westferry is no longer in the top 20.

The overhang that is causing the downtrend is starting to make sense

2022 Annual Report

2023 Annual Report

However, Westferry still counts XRF as one of the top holdings

As Westferry is not a substantial holder, we don't know when the sale occurred or how much they have keft

Capital IQ Pro reckons it is zero but from above I think that could be wrong.

Might be a good but pointy question to ask?

[held]

Well it appears that my days as a valued member of Capital IQ pro are numbered

I've been blocked from looking at the most recent estimates

But I still managed to find that XRF had received a downgrade from an unknown broker. My guess it is Euroz

Revenue downgrade of 9%

Sentiment changed to hold

Price target maintained at 1.22

Since Aug 2023, XRF has dropped more than 9%

[held]

Adding further info to my comment on why the share price fell. I won't worry about drawing the graph as the numbers show the trend well enough.

My last comment mentioned margins fell, but it was only minor about 2% 2H2022 versus 2H2023

However of most concern is the revenue growth. It was only 4% from end of 1H2023 to 2H2023 versus 16% from end of 1H2022 to 2H2022.

Also earnings between 1H2023 and 2H2023 was only 5% growth versus 22% growth between 1H2022 to 2H2022

In summary it seems both revenue and growth stalled from the beginning of the 1st half to the end of June 2023 down to single digits.

The market reacted as expected, even though the numbers looked good,because the growth from previous period was not as much as opposed to the corresponding period. I think market wanted consistent double digit growth but unless I did something wrong above, it looks like growth is becoming marginal.

[held]

Adding further on the latest straw with some back of envelope calculations

Assuming that NPAT reaches 11m this financial year as seen in the latest update, then that's a forward PE of 15 based on current market cap.

Currently trading at backward PE of 23. But with NPAT and revenue growing in the double digits.

Given the double digit growth, assigning current PE of 23 instead of the backward figure and forecasting EPS of around 11/160=0.068, a share price of around 1.58 when FY23 ends seems reasonable. However that also depends on whether this is a continual trend or whether XRF will hit a speed bump from a downturn in mining and exploration as a result of a possible recession. Think this is the big question I'm still asking when reviewing the results although they seem confident that there is enough forward demand till the end of the year.

Also need to thank @Wini for bringing this to attention during 2020 when I first entered but as always too late to put the trade in SM. One of the rare cases where I didn't worry too much about the holding!

[held]