With Dynamic Revenue Plus one of Siteminders three pillars of future growth, a lot is riding on the success of this new product line which was launched in Aus in September. As a shareholder I think it’s great, as a consumer, not so much.

It appears the Labor government has a similar opinion with Dynamic pricing models coming into their cross hairs for cost of living relief measures.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/16/dynamic-pricing-ban-australia-tickets-event-fees-albanese-government

Australia is only a small portion of Siteminders overall market, however it does highlight susceptibility of the current strategy to government regulation.

The Good

• Increase in positive operating cash flow to $4.9m for the quarter. FCF is still not quite positive due to investing cash outflows of $5.3m. Siteminder is trending well to meet their FCF target by the end of FY24.

• Operating expenses remain flat, so going forward, most of the top line growth should be going to the bottom line.

• $39.5m in cash available as the business reaches FCF positive. Cash balance should improve going forward offering a solid operational buffer for future R&D spend.
• 14 agreements signed on for Channel Plus which indicates there is a demand for the new product. Currently this is running in pilot for Q4FY24 so unlikely there will be any significant contribution from Channels Plus until H2FY25.

The Not So Good

• ARR is up YoY and the previous quarter but still down on Q1. It’s a similar story with quarterly revenue, which has been largely flat for FY24 and still down on Q1. For the company to be close to the targeted growth rate of 30% much of this will need to come over the next 2 quarters.

What To Watch

• Channel Plus and Dynamic Revenue Plus release as per target in Q1FY25
• Siteminder Pay Terminals rollout in H1FY23
• Updates on Little Hotelier Autopay and contributions to increase in transaction revenue.

Watch Status

• Unchanged. Slower growth QoQ but business developing opportunities for FY25 and beyond.

Valuation Status

• No Change

As @PeregrineCapital pointed out, BTI's February Update is all about SiteMinder, which is their largest holding in the portfolio. BTI are still quite bullish given the significant portion it makes up of their NTA and for me, any sell downs from the BTI team would be worth paying attention to. (Even though they probably should to move capital into other unlisted ventures).

The update breaks down Short, Medium and Long term prospects for the company, but implies there is value at current levels.

I'm yet to do my review of Q2/H1 but will revisit this when I do.

Q1FY24

The Good

• Q1 revenue of $46.8m which annualise to $187.2m. This would be a 23% increase on FY23 and keeps management’s 30% YoY growth targets in range. 
• ARR increased 10.7% QoQ to $191.6m which is just shy of my previous forecast target

The Not So Good

• Operational cash flow positive not quite achieved this quarter as per my previous target. “Underlying” cashflow has been reported positive when adjusting for “non-recurring” costs of ~ $800k. There have been cost adjustments in most of Site Minders announcements, which brings into question how “non-recurring” these are.

• Operational expenditure is largely levelled out, except for staff costs which continues to grow. Q1 did include an annual cash incentive of $2.4m, so this should come down slightly in Q2. Staff costs do remain as a watch point as they are the most significant expense for site minder.

• Cash down to $45m. There is still $31.3m of unused financing facilities, however it would be much more positive for the company if they can reach their FCF targets before having to draw on these.

What Status

What To Watch

• Introduction of Dynamic Revenue Plus and Channels plus mid 2024 as detailed by @jcmlengs post. Investor day announcement here 
• Business metrics not reported for the quarter. Look for improvements across these in H1, particularly net subscriber additions as these were reported to have accelerated in Q1.
• FCF should be just shy of breakeven in Q2.
• Levels of investing expenditure to implement the new smart platform developments. Currently is ~$6m per quarter. Increases to the investing spend could potentially hinder the FCF targets. However ongoing development of the platform is required to drive growth in spend for the existing user base.
• Decrease in staff costs for Q2.

Full Year and 4th Quarter Updates. (A bit late but finishing off the list)

The Good

• ARR increased 15% QoQ to $173.1m. Previously ARR growth had been slowing. Based on this number being “recurring” (even though an increased portion is based on transactions) this puts a floor on a FY24 revenue estimate and would indicate ~14% growth on the FY23 result. This is short of management’s long held 30% target.

• Operational cash burn continues to improve which has led to an improved FCF positive target for H2FY24 from the end of FY24.

• All business metrics continue to improve.

• Additional subscribers adder per half continues to grow. The gross margins are much better for this part of the business (84.1% vs 35.7% for transactions), so this is an important area for the business to continue to perform in.

• Growth has picked up across all regions.

The Not So Good

• Cash reserves down to $51.3m. This will continue to take a hit until FCF positive can be reached.

Watch Status (Trying a new method to be able to better compare ongoing sentiment)

What To Watch

• Ongoing growth in ARR to bring revenue closer to the 30% growth target. ($196m)
• For FCF positive to occur in H2, can likely expect that operational cash flow should be positive in Q1FY24. (Adjusted cash flow was neutral) Not expecting any significant changes in operating expenses.

• Impacts of overall economic headwinds on continued transaction revenues from travel. If spend decreases, growth will need to continue to come from ongoing property additions.

The Good

• ARR growth resuming, up ~5% QoQ. This does need to pick up to meet the targeted 30% annual growth rate

The Not So Good

• Cash receipts down when compared to the prior quarter, which is impacting overall cash flows. “Underlying” cash flow is meant to be an improvement over the past 5 quarters, but there is still a long way to go for the cash flow neutral by Q4FY24.

• $57m in cash / term deposits. With over $11m in cash burn for the quarter, this means that there is barely enough cash available to reach the breakeven target without having to access additional financing.
• $23m in quarterly expenses for staff. This is a pretty high figure for a cloud software company.

What To Watch

• Based on underlying cash flow, can hope to see operational cash burn less than $3m for Q4.
• Growth in Net Subscriber Additions - reported to have increased in Q3.
• Forward booking has been strong for the Northern Hemisphere summer
• GuestJoy to be relaunched in English in February and other languages in Q4 (Carried Over)

I missed SiteMinder in my regular quarterly check ins. So a bit of a rushed one.

The Good

• Transaction revenues continue to grow strongly. This is an area where siteminder still has room to continue growing and expand across its existing user base. The growth in new properties on the platform was only 10% for the quarter, which may be a bit of a leading indicator for future growth rates.
• Overall metrics continue to improve over the half with increased ARPU and decreased CAC (This is on a half yearly basis though)

• Signs of operating leverage starting to show through

The Not So Good

• ARR down on the previous quarter (but still up on the pcp), which isn’t as obvious as they reported on comparable half year metrics.

• Expenses up on the prior quarters. Staff and admin costs will need to start levelling out in the coming quarters if there are to be signs that SiteMinder will meet the cashflow positive targets.

• Due to the increased expenses, cashflows are down over the previous quarter.

What To Watch

• GuestJoy to be relaunched in English in February and other languages in Q4, which may assist with overall property numbers for H2FY23

The Good

• ARR rates continuing back to the rates that were forecast in the IPO at close to 30%

The Not So Good

• No real detail provided on business development

What To Watch

• Aim to be FCF positive by FY24. Currently have $77.9m of cash available. ($52.1m of this is tied up in term deposits). Burn rate of $10.1m for the quarter. There is enough cash available to meet this as long as they meet forecast timeframes

• Macro factors provide some headwinds for travel as inflation and economic impact global markets. Transactions make up a large % of ARR.

A quick review of the most recent quarterly before the meeting tomorrow:

The Good

• $29m revenue and ARR of $117m for the quarter, with YoY growth rates increasing over the previous quarter.

The Not So Good

• Not a great deal reported besides the headline figures. Company metrics are explored further in the H1 Investor slides, but it would be good to get more visibility across the numbers while the company is required to report quarterly.
• High operational cash burn is not looked on favourably in the current market.

What To Watch

• Reported ARR is essentially the most recent reported revenue annualised. Whilst it is recurring in a sense, transactions made up ~20% of total revenue at the end of H1FY22.  I doubt there will be any significant changes to how this is reported going forward, but I think comparison of subscription revenue will be a better indicator of platform growth.
• Further easing of restrictions globally and increased travel increasing platform uptake and transaction revenue.
• Targeting ~30% annual growth going forward, however with a big disclaimer.