I haven't looked at this one for a few years. It was around $ 4 per share then, and my conclusion was that it had potential. However, knowing my luck, I felt that two weeks after I invested in it, AAPL or GOOG would decide to end 360's life. Maybe that's wrong; maybe the TAM here is just too small for the big boys to bother with, and it ends up as a small, growing, profitable niche or sells out. Whatever, so i decided to do a valuation based on a forward estimate of the 2029 P&L under a base case and bull case scenarios. main assumptions, and there are a few in bold. the most sensitive is the cost ratio on a mature basis or operating leverage, in other words. The conclusion is a very wide range of outcomes.

I'm interested in any Bulls' views on what they see differently.

if anything in the post-GFC investing world, we see winning biz models keep winning and valuations lag, so I'm following this one, its likely to be volatile given the sensitivities.

I attended the Ophir Meet the Managers event last night and they had a run down on their investment thesis in Life360.

The part I found interesting was they are selling it as it's making up too much of their portfolio. They also said it will run another 8 times... so a little conflicted with their comments.

I have 2 young kids and I don't like the idea of them knowing that I know where they are at all times. Trust with kids needs to be earnt and they need to be empowered to go down the road to the shops or whatever. I acknowledge there are cases where it is appropriate. It's a little different if you're lending your 17yr old your car when they're on their P plates and you want some piece of mind they're going to the right place and not being idiots on the road.

I won't be using the app on moral grounds, unless my kids turn out to be numbskulls...

Some of their summary from my notes:

• subs growing at 30%pa

• market expects MUA growth to slow, Ophir thinks the market is wrong. The adoption curve is still early in the global side.

• Subscription upside - Pets, Elderly, Driving behaviour. Life360 already know your data on where you go, what you do, if you have a pet, if you've been visiting your parents at the aged care home, etc. and then adding these upgrades to existing users is a slam dunk. Don't need to spend mega marketing money as they already know who you are!

• Advertising revenue - Highlighting Demand Side Platforms and the monetisation of the data. currently sits at $1.50 per MAU/year, Ophir thinks this will get to $5+. which equated to a $550 million EBITDA opportunity. Apparently this isn't priced in.

• They have raised $200m and expect strategic M&A.

Valuation wise, they are saying it could be an $800m USD revenue --> 30x EBITDA --> $24B AUD. currently $3-4B so 7-8x upside

With the notable exception of @raymon68 this stock seems to get no love on SM. I've held for a while IRL and watched it grow and an impressive rate to the point where it now has 13% penetration of the US smartphone carrying population. It's financials are rapidly tilting towards profitability and with the huge number of people now using the app, opportunities for monetization seem everywhere...

I've always held back a little on the oft raised concern 'is this business simply going to become Apple's feature' but I think that risk is decreasing with time. It now seems more likely it will continue to be a standalone function and anecdotally I hear more and more people using the app. Tailwinds exist in the shittiness of the world unfortunately and people's desire to keep an eye on loved ones...

How to value such a business... I think they could easily be sitting on a 100mil net profit in 2029 which on a PE of 25 would see them 2.5 Bil. Funnily enough that discounts back roughly to 1.5 bil now which is where they sit... ?fairly valued?

Uber joins the platform as a key partner, integrating with Life360's Landing Notifications to provide timely transportation options and launching targeted ads to parents of teens for Uber teen accounts. These accounts allow teens aged 13-17 to request their own rides and order food, all with parental supervision and essential safety features built into the experience.

To help bolster the growth of the Life360 Advertising Platform, the company has appointed Google veteran Brian McDevitt as its first-ever Vice President of Ad Sales and Strategy. McDevitt will focus on building, scaling, and running Life360's ad business globally.

Life360 Unveils Advertising Platform to Connect Brands with Its Engaged Community of 40 Million U.S. Monthly Active Users (prnewswire.com)

I found some information below:

Life 360 Blog: 5 Uber Safety Tips for Women | Ride Sharing Safety | Life360

Life360: Live Location Sharing – Apps on Google Play

Life360: Find Friends & Family on the App Store (apple.com)

Compatibility

iPhone

Requires iOS 15.3 or later.

Disc: I don't currently use the 360 app

Disc: RL

Life 360 Opened at $17 , gapped up. Traded positively on the NASDAQ last night. Trading above $17.00 this arvo.

Snap shot of the opening trades here:

Dics: holding

Life360 Chief Financial Officer Russell Burke noted, “We continued to take meaningful steps on our path to profitability during the quarter, and our U.S. IPO enhanced our strategic flexibility.” Burke continued, “While costs from the U.S. IPO impacted our Net Loss versus the prior year, we achieved our seventh consecutive quarter of positive Adjusted EBITDA1 , and our fifth consecutive quarter of positive Operating Cash Flow.

Our commitment to balancing growth with expanding profitability was reflected in our Q2’24 results, as our total revenue reached $84.9 million and grew 20% YoY, while our total operating expenses increased 12% YoY.

We remain on track to reach our target of sustained positive EBITDA1 in 2025.”

Life360 has commenced CY24 with strong operating metrics. Global Monthly Active Users (MAU) were 66.4 million at the end of CY24 Q1

Market Update reaction : up 16.9% this morning

LIFE360 INC. (ASX:360) - Ann: Market Update, page-1 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Return (inc div)   1yr: 185.48%   3yr: 44.14% pa   5yr: N/A

John Philip Coghlan Chairman

2023 Performance Life360 met or exceeded all of the guidance metrics we provided to the market for CY23.

Revenue growth of 33% to $304.5 million benefited from continued strong momentum in the core Life360 subscription business, which increased 52% year-on-year.

At the same time, GAAP operating expenses increased just 4% YoY, and reduced 1% excluding variable commissions, reflecting a disciplined approach to cost.

The strong revenue growth combined with cost restraint underpinned a greater than $60 million year-on-year improvement in each of net loss, EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA to $(28.2) million1 , $(20.8) million and $20.6 million respectively. A similar $60 million improvement in operating cash flow delivered the first full year of positive cash flow of $7.5 million.

Life360’s balance sheet is strong, finishing CY23 with cash, restricted cash and cash equivalents of $70.7 million.

LIFE360 INC. (ASX:360) - Ann: Annual Report to shareholders, page-1 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Rerview Life360 is a leading technology platform used to locate the people, pets and things that matter most to families. Life360 is creating a new category at the intersection of family, technology, and safety to help keep families connected and safe. The Company’s core offering, the Life360 mobile application, includes features that range from communications to driving safety and location sharing. The Life360 mobile application operates under a “freemium” model where its core offering is available to users at no charge, with three membership subscription options that are available but not required. Our platform recently entered a new era of location tracking services with the successful acquisitions of Jiobit and Tile. By offering devices and integrated software to members, we have expanded our addressable market to provide members of all ages with a vertically integrated, cross-platform solution of scale. For the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, Life360 generated: • Total revenues of $304.5 million and $228.3 million, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 33%; • Subscription revenues of $220.8 million and $153.3 million, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 44%; • Hardware revenues of $58.2 million and $47.9 million, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 21%; • Other revenues of $25.5 million and $27.1 million, respectively, representing year-over-year decline of 6%; • Gross profit of $222.6 million and $148.6 million, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 50%; and • Net loss of $28.2 million and $91.6 million, respectively. Key Factors Affecting Our Performance As we focus on growing our customers and revenue, and achieving profitability while investing for the future and managing risk, expenses and capital, the following factors and others identified in the section of this Annual Report on Form 10-K titled “Item 1A. Risk Factors” have been important to our business and we expect them to impact our operations in future periods: Ability to Retain Trusted Brand. We strongly believe in our vision to become the indispensable safety membership for families, with a suite of safety services that span every life stage of the family. Our business model and future success are dependent on the value and reputation of the Life360, Jiobit and Tile brands. Our brand is trusted by approximately 61 million members as of December 31, 2023, and because we know the value of trust is immeasurable, we will continue to work tirelessly to ensure that we provide useful, reliable, trustworthy and innovative products and services. Attract, Retain and Convert Members. Our business model is based on attracting new members to our platform, converting free members to subscribers, and retaining and expanding subscriptions over time. Our continued success depends in part on our ability to offer compelling new products and features to our members, and to continue providing a quality user experience to convert and retain paying subscribers. We will also seek to increase brand awareness and customer adoption of our platform through various programs and digital and broad-scale advertising. Maintaining Efficient Member Acquisition. Our investment in developing effective services and devices creates an efficient member acquisition model which drives strong unit economics. Our member acquisition model is complemented by our word-of-mouth and freemium models. We accelerate our organic member acquisition with strategic and targeted paid marketing spend. We expect to continue to invest in product and marketing, while balancing growth with strong unit economics. As we continue to expand internationally, we may increase our targeted marketing investments. 

Return (inc div)   1yr: 168.03%   3yr: 40.48% pa   5yr: N/A

Heading to the conference call but on a very quick glance the results and outlook are looking ok but I'll reserve any further opinion until I've had a chance to listen to the call and have a full read of their presentation.